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Ed Horner is the Jerusalem Bureau Chief for Shofar Communications, Inc. He is on special assignment in Israel to bring us first hand accounts of the news, as it happens, and to get exclusive interviews with newsmakers in that area. His wife, Allison Horner, is a photojournalist, and brings us images from the Israeli front.

Israeli Cities Unprepared for the Next Big Earthquake

November 16, 2007

Israeli geologists agree that the nation of Israel is long overdue for the next big earthquake. Specialists at Tel Aviv University also predict that the majority of Israeli cities will not withstand the coming quake.

Israel is positioned on two significant fault lines, the Carmel Fault near Haifa and the Dead Sea Fault near Jerusalem. Both of these fault lines are branches off of the larger Great Rift Valley (or African Rift) which extends from Syria to Africa. The Great Rift Valley is the geological meeting of three plates of the earth's crust. These plates of the earth's crust shift from time to time causing devastating earthquakes which have leveled previous cities and civilizations.

Dr. Samuel Marco, geologist at the Tel Aviv University, has made it his mission to map a timeline of earthquakes that have occurred in the land of Israel. Through archaeological discoveries of ancient cities and historical accounts he has deduced that several major earthquakes have struck Israel in the years: 31 BC, 363 AD, 749 AD, and 1033 AD. Approximately every 400 years there has been a significant shift in the geological plates under the Middle East. It has now been almost 1000 years since the last big earthquake and Dr. Marco is one of several geologists that believe Israel will soon experience an earthquake greater than 7.0 on the Richter scale. He describes the tension building between the plates of the earth's crust as continuing to stretch a rubber band, eventually it will break. The tension has been building for twice as long as any other previous period. Geologists predict that the breaking point will be devastating to Israeli cities.

Israel's cities have been under construction for hundreds of years and many of the structures will not withstand a significant earthquake. Building codes implemented in the early 1970's factor in the event of an earthquake, but many of the buildings were built prior to this date. Geologists fear that in the event of a major earthquake Israel would suffer a very high casualty rate in its more densely populated areas. Steps are being implemented to bring older structures up to current building standards, but the process is slow and extremely costly. Legislation has been recently proposed to the Israeli Knesset to offer financial assistance to building owners who want to update their properties.

Several of Israel’s cities, including Jerusalem, are built over ancient civilizations and ruins. In the event of a major earthquake, many wonder what will become of some of Israel's most treasured holy sites. Many of the millennia old properties in Jerusalem have withstood previous earthquakes, but many wonder if they will remain after the "big-one" hits.

Geologists cannot predict the exact time or place an earthquake will strike next, yet they all agree that Israel is long overdue for a major geological release of tremendous forces. Dr. Amos Salamon of the Israeli Geological Survey said, "We know one thing – we are sure there will be an earthquake in Israel."

The Israeli government does realize the potential dangers involved in a major earthquake and are endeavoring to remedy the situation. IDF troops periodically train for search and rescue missions on earthquake simulations and "what to do in the event of an earthquake” drills are performed in local Israeli schools. Dr. Marco concluded his report by saying, "We (Israel) can and should do better".

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