Syria’s Clenched Fist

By: Robert Maginnis – Human Events

Syria is building a new chemical weapons factory next to a long-range missile base, hiding evidence of its mushrooming nuclear weapons program and radically increasing military spending on conventional systems. These activities which are primarily funded by Iran suggest Damascus is preparing for war and not — in President Obama’s unhappy terminology — unclenching its fist.


President Obama promised “If countries like Iran are willing to unclench their fist, they will find an extended hand from us.” Why then has the president “extended” his hand when Damascus is obviously on the war path?

Last month, Obama sent a congressional delegation headed by Senator John Kerry (D-Ma) to meet with Syrian President Bashar Assad. After that meeting Kerry said there are possibilities for “real cooperation” with Syria but in return Syria must “change its behavior.” Then last week Obama’s State Department hosted talks with Syria’s ambassador hoping to “advance U.S. interests” but immediately President Obama authorized the Commerce Department to approve the export of U.S. components for Syria’s fleet of aging Boeing 747 aircraft.

The export of components for Syria’s aircraft marks a departure from nearly five years of sanctions under the Syrian Accountability Act. Reportedly Syria has used its passenger jets to ferry weapons from Iran to Tehran’s terrorist proxy group Hizballah in Lebanon.

There isn’t a shred of evidence that Syria is about to unclench its fist as Obama wishes. In fact Damascus has become an Iranian pawn, part of the Persian hegemon’s growing empire which has put the entire region in danger.

Syria’s relationship with Iran is widely understood. Last fall, Ali Ibramhim, an Egyptian Member of Parliament and editor of the Egyptian daily Al-Gomhouriyya, labeled Syria “a vassal of Iran.” Even important Syrians admit Tehran’s influence over Damascus. In Dec. 2008, former Syrian vice president Abd al-Halim Khaddam admitted, “Iran has a significant presence in Syria. Iran is involved in the very heart of the regime — in its security agencies, in its military forces, in its economic [institutions], and in its mosques.”

Iran has taken great pains to establish this special relationship with Syria. A July 2007 article in London’s daily Al-Sharq Al-Swsat outlined a previously secret Iran-Syria agreement that establishes their quid pro quo relationship and explains Damascus’ current militarization binge.

That report states Tehran and Damascus sealed a secret strategic cooperation deal allowing Iran considerable sway in Syria including the right to deploy weapons like long-range missiles and using that country to resupply Hizballah.

Hizballah, one of the world’s most dangerous terrorist organizations, aims to destroy Israel, is a dominant force in Lebanon, and is among Iran’s terrorist surrogates fighting in Iraq.

Syria receives significant military aid in exchange for allowing Tehran free rein. Damascus was promised money to purchase weapons and Iran would build in Syria factories to produce missiles and launchers. Damascus was to receive armored vehicles and Iranian-made antiship missiles and it was promised technological aid relating to nuclear research and chemical weapons.

There is significant evidence Tehran has delivered on all these promises.

Syria has been on a conventional weapons buying binge to equip its 380,000 man army. In the past three years, Syria spent more than $3 billion on weapons, which is 10 percent of its annual budget for each year. By comparison Damascus spent only $100 million for weapons as recently as 2002.

Most of the arms money appears to have come from Tehran. Last March, the Israeli newspaper Haaretz reported that Syria received $1 billion from Iran to buy missiles, rockets and anti-aircraft systems. Two months later a Syrian delegation visited Moscow seeking a variety of new weapons. It sought sophisticated long-range S-300 surface-to-air missiles that could defeat Israeli fighters, MiG 29 fighter jets, Iskander surface-to-surface missiles and Amur-1650 submarines from Russia.

Since 2007, Syria has added significant capability to its ballistic missile fleet. According to a report in the Jerusalem Post, Syria has a massive missile production facility at al-Hamma known as “missile city” which houses hundreds of ballistic missiles and their launchers, as well as “… 30 reinforced underground concrete bunkers, production facilities, development laboratories, and command posts.” The report indicates chemical agent warheads for the missiles are stored separately outside the missile complex.

Syria has expanded its weapons of mass destruction program since signing the Iranian agreement. The February 2009 edition of Jane’s Intelligence Review (JIR) reported Syria has stepped up production of chemical weapons at its al Safir facility. The report states Syria shows “significant levels of construction” including sophisticated filtration systems and cooling towers adjacent to a missile base with long-range Scud-D ballistic missiles, which can reach all of Israel.

A July 2007 accident demonstrates Syria’s chemical weaponization efforts and Iran’s complicity. Jane’s Defense Weekly reported that 15 military personnel and “dozens” of Iranian advisers died when the fuel for a missile caught fire and the weapon exploded. The report said the explosion sent out a cloud of nerve gases, including deadly VX and sarin agents as well as mustard gas.

Syria also has a nuclear program. Last Tuesday, Syria announced that it converted a suspected nuclear site bombed by Israel in September 2007 to a military installation for firing missiles. Converting the al Kibar site to a military facility means it won’t be open to inspection and therefore cripples the United Nation’s ongoing investigation.

Initially, Syria refused the UN access to al Kibar after Israel’s attack claiming it had “nothing to hide.” But once the site was bulldozed and new construction started it allowed an inspection visit in June 2008.

That inspection was to determine whether there was nuclear development there as Israel has alleged. A November 2008 UN report states samples taken from the site included 80 uranium particles used in nuclear fuel, high-grade graphite, used to control the speed of fission in some reactors and barium sulfate, a nuclear shielding material.

Last April, senior U.S. intelligence officials testified al Kibar harbored “… a nuclear reactor … constructed by the Syrians … for the production of plutonium with the assistance of the North Koreans.” Officials indicated that once finished the reactor would have been able to produce plutonium for atomic weapons.

It’s noteworthy that DEBKAfile, an Israeli open source military intelligence website, alleges Tehran “funded the North Korean reactor in Syria.” The Iran-Syria plan in the event of a war with Israel, according to DEBKAfile, was to use al Kibar to produce “dirty weapons” material to be distributed to the terrorist organizations fighting Israel, while “Iran would go for a nuclear bomb.”

Israel knows Syria is rapidly militarizing and recognizes that their win now, lose later calculus is running on borrowed time. They also see that Obama is quickly removing America from their calculus in favor of their enemies. With Binyamin Netanyahu now at the helm in Jerusalem we seem to be driving Israel closer to attacking Iran and/or Syria unilaterally.

There is no evidence Syria has unclenched its fist. Rather, Damascus is firmly in the clenched grip of Tehran and its hegemonic agenda. President Obama should retract his extended hand and join hands with democratic Israel to stop the Persians and their Syrian proxy.

Please note: These stories are located outside of Prophecy Today’s website. Prophecy Today is not responsible for their content and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed therein. These articles are provided for your information.

Over $4.4b. raised at Sharm for Gaza

By: Brenda Gazzar, Herb Keinon and AP – The Jerusalem Post

Palestinian officials from rival factions welcomed pledges of more than $4.4 billion to rebuild the war-torn Gaza Strip that were made at the donors conference held in Sharm e-Sheikh on Monday.

“We appreciate this very much, and we hope it can be transferred into reality in an expeditious fashion so we can see the reconstruction of Gaza begin immediately,” chief Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat told The Jerusalem Post.

Earlier on Monday, Hamas spokesman Fawzi Barhoum told reporters in Gaza that the group welcomed “any Arab and international effort to rebuild what the occupation destroyed,” calling the reconstruction process “a humane and moral” one.

US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who arrived in Jerusalem on Monday to consult with Israeli government officials and with Palestinian officials in the West Bank, said the United States was pledging $900 million to the international aid effort for the Gaza Strip.

She gave no breakdown of the funds, but her spokesman, Robert A. Wood, said on Sunday that it included $300m. in humanitarian aid for Gaza and about $600m. in budget and development aid to the Palestinian Authority, which is based in the West Bank.

Clinton conducted a rapid-fire series of one-on-one meetings with Arab and other counterparts attending the conference.

Clinton also met with Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, French President Nicolas Sarkozy and Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, and she attended a meeting of the so-called Quartet of international mediators – the US, the European Union, the United Nations and Russia – seeking to forge progress toward peace between Israel and its Arab neighbors.

At the Red Sea Resort, Mubarak cautioned that rebuilding Gaza following Israel’s three-week offensive in January would depend on several factors, including a long-term truce and the opening of the area’s border crossings.

Mubarak said the “priority is to reach a truce between Israel and the Palestinians,” and added that Egypt would continue its mediation between the two, including for a more permanent Gaza truce.

“I see a momentum in peace efforts. I [anticipate] that this year will be the year of peaceful settlement between Israelis and Palestinians,” Mubarak said.

He added that Egypt was trying to get Israel to “modify its position on reaching a truce” – referring to Israel’s demand that a truce be linked to the release of kidnapped soldier St.-Sgt. Gilad Schalit.

Mubarak also called on Palestinian factions to work toward reconciliation and forming a unity government to oversee the rebuilding.

Taking the stand, Sarkozy urged “responsible Palestinians” to seek peace with Israel, and said the release of Schalit in exchange for Palestinian prisoners was a priority.

“You must admit that there is no other road to the creation of a Palestinian state but to engage resolutely in searching for a political solution and engage in a dialogue with Israel,” Sarkozy said, in a clear message to Hamas.

Mark Regev, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert’s spokesman, said Israel supported the international efforts designed to aid the people of Gaza, “but, like other responsible members of the international community, believes that mechanisms have to be established to ensure that the aid reaches the people whom it is supposed to reach, and only them.

“We don’t want to see American dollars, European euros or British pounds go to lend support to Hamas’s extremist regime,” he said.

Regarding sharp criticism of Israel at the conference for not fully opening the border crossings into the Gaza Strip, Regev said that “the crossings are open for humanitarian aid, and 200 trucks go into the Gaza Strip each day.”

Regev said that further opening the crossings beyond humanitarian support “is conditional on the release of Gilad Schalit.” If there is any issue that is a clear humanitarian issue, he said, “it is Schalit, who has been held hostage for three years.”

Palestinian Authority Prime Minister Salaam Fayad prepared a 53-page reconstruction plan for the donors, including detailed damage assessments. For example, fixing war damage to infrastructure and homes would cost $501m. according to the plan, which says 4,036 homes were destroyed and 11,514 damaged.

Fayad warned Sunday that reconstruction could only move forward if Gaza’s borders, blockaded since Hamas’s bloody takeover, opened again. He said that with open borders and sufficient aid, reconstruction could begin in six weeks.

Fayad wants most of the aid to be funneled through his West Bank-based government. He already administers huge sums of foreign aid – $7.7b. for 2008-2010 – and has been sending $120m. to Gaza each month for welfare and the salaries of PA President Mahmoud Abbas’s former civil servants. Other aid, such as for rebuilding homes, would go directly to the bank accounts of Gazans.

George Mitchell, the US special envoy for Middle East peace, said that while the situation was difficult between Israel and the Palestinians, he saw opportunity for progress. Mitchell stressed the need to consolidate a cease-fire in Gaza, and he forecast that once Israel created a new governing coalition, it would be in position to improve living conditions in the West Bank.

The Obama administration is casting its Gaza and PA contributions as a calculated effort to ensure that the money does not reach Hamas, which is viewed by Washington as a terrorist organization and not a legitimate governing body.

“We have worked with the Palestinian Authority to install safeguards that will ensure our funding is only used where and for whom it is intended and does not end up in the wrong hands,” Clinton told the conference. She did not explicitly mention Hamas, but alluded to extremist elements.

“It is time to break the cycle of rejection and resistance,” she said, “to cut the strings pulled by those who exploit the suffering of innocent people.”

In her address, Clinton took note of the continuing rocket attacks by Hamas on southern Israel.

“These attacks must stop,” she said.

Clinton stressed that the Obama administration was taking a wide-angle view of the humanitarian crisis in Gaza following weeks of attacks by Israel in response to Hamas rocket fire.

“Our response to today’s crisis in Gaza cannot be separated from our broader efforts to achieve a comprehensive peace,” she said. “Only by acting now can we turn this crisis into an opportunity that moves us closer to our shared goals.”

She added that “by providing humanitarian aid to Gaza, we also aim to foster conditions in which a Palestinian state can be fully realized, a state that is a responsible partner, is at peace with Israel and its Arab neighbors and is accountable to its people.”

Before Clinton spoke, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon told the conference he was encouraged by the Obama administration’s approach to the Middle East. He singled out Obama’s decision to appoint Mitchell as special Middle East peace envoy.

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Palestinians Take First New Reconciliation Steps

By: Sana Abdallah – Middle East Times

AMMAN — The Palestinian factions, Fatah and Hamas, have realized that the time is ripe and regional conditions are appropriate to launch reconciliation talks to end the deep rifts that were threatening their cause for self-determination.

FRIENDS AGAIN — Senior Fatah official Ahmed Qurei and Hamas politburo deputy chief Moussa Abu Marzouk share a laugh during a press conference in Cairo on Feb. 26, in which they announced working committees to forge Palestinian reconciliation and a unity government. (PTS via Newscom)

Egypt managed Thursday to bring together Fatah and Hamas leaders, along with representatives from other Palestinian factions, for badly-needed talks to resolve their differences and pave the way for a unity government that would get international recognition.

After long hours of deliberations, more than a dozen factions late Thursday evening formed five committees tasked with unifying ranks: One committee will be tasked with forming a unity government; one is charged with providing mechanisms for reforming the security services on the basis of merit rather than factional affiliations; and another committee will organize and set a date for legislative and presidential elections.

One group was formed to work on restructuring the Palestine Liberation Organization to allow all factions, including Hamas, to join it as an umbrella organization representing the Palestinians. And a reconciliation committee is tasked with “consolidating the culture of democracy, the principle of mutual respect and forbidding internal fighting.”

In a move to clear the air before the talks kicked off, Islamist Hamas, which controls Gaza, and nationalist Fatah, which runs much of the West Bank, agreed to stop arresting each others’ members and to halt smear campaigns. They also agreed to begin releasing prisoners from the other side, and vowed to end their dispute by the time dialogue ends.

Participants said the committees will begin their detailed negotiations on Mar. 10 and will conclude their work by issuing a comprehensive document before the annual Arab summit convenes in Qatar at the end of March, in order to receive the necessary Arab support – in terms of the reconstruction of Gaza, peace negotiations with Israel, and dealings with the new U.S. administration in this regard.

Some officials hoped that a unity government would be formed by the end of next month, while others were more cautious about raising hopes that high.

Fatah and Hamas leaders in Cairo declared a “new historic phase” in internal Palestinian relations, saying that all parties were determined to forge unity. Their division was consolidated after Hamas ousted the Fatah-led Palestinian Authority (PA) from Gaza in June 2007, only three months after the two sides had formed a coalition government.

Hamas swept the legislative elections in January 2006, but when it formed a government, the West suspended ties with the Palestinians. Gaza came under a severe Western-backed Israeli blockade after Hamas seized control of the impoverished strip, on the grounds that Hamas was blacklisted as a “terrorist” organization.

Some commentators say that conditions have now changed for reconciliation talks to succeed, after they had failed on several occasions before they even kicked off.

These analysts argue the fact that the two key factions announced their commitment to confidence-building-measures – after their loss of trust for each other amid internal fighting and crackdowns against each others’ members – was a positive first step.

Although their attempts to find common ground on which to form a unity government are expected to face many obstacles – considering that Fatah and Hamas have substantial differences over how to deal with Israel – the Israeli election results were ironically one of the conditions that provided an opportunity for the Palestinians to reconcile. With a far right-wing Israeli government-in-the-making, the chances for reviving paralyzed peace talks with President Mahmoud Abbas’s Palestinian Authority are considered to be almost nil.

Add to that the massive destruction from the deadliest war on Gaza in December-January, in which more than 1,300 Palestinians, most of them civilians, were killed and 5,500 others injured, has generated international sympathy to the plight of this downcast territory and its 1.5 million people and plans to support its reconstruction.

Egypt is next week hosting a donors’ conference to rebuild what Israel destroyed in Gaza, so the factions hope to agree on a Western-accepted unified entity that would handle the reconstruction funds, expected to reach $3 billion.

The United States and Britain said they would prefer a “technocrat” government that excludes Hamas. But that is unlikely to happen, considering Hamas was elected freely and controls Gaza on the ground.

Abbas this week indicated that Hamas can no longer be ostracized by the international community if the humanitarian crisis in Gaza and the West Bank is to be resolved. He urged the West to recognize and deal with a unity government that includes the Islamist movement.

Fatah, which seeks a compromise peace settlement with Israel, hopes that Hamas will in turn recognize the previous peace agreements and initiatives. Hamas and its allies insist on the right to armed resistance, but Palestinian officials say they believe that an acceptable text can be worked out in the Cairo talks.

Arab analysts say that the West was slowly, but surely, edging toward accepting Hamas, despite official calls on it to first recognize Israel, accept previous agreements and renounce violence, as well as declaring their preference for a unity government that excludes the Islamist movement. And there are signs that Western leaders might be easing the pressure on Abbas by not making aid conditional to Hamas’s exclusion from the government.

For the first time since Hamas seized power, Western officials have begun to visit Gaza, although they have not made contact with Hamas, whose leaders likewise have not attempted to meet them. A U.S. congressional delegation, led by Senate’s foreign relations committee chief Sen. John Kerry, made a rare visit to Gaza only last week.

European leaders have also started traveling to the strip to ascertain its humanitarian needs and survey the war damage. EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana on Friday toured the Gaza Strip for the first time since Hamas took control.

Also Friday, the EU stated it would pledge 436 million euros in aid to Gaza at the donors’ conference, while reports said the United States would announce $900 million for the strip’s reconstruction.

Another indication that is boosting the chances for successful Palestinian reconciliation is the diplomatic rhetoric that is easing polarization in the region. Iran and Syria, main supporters of Hamas, seem to be edging closer to Washington. And diplomatic efforts are underway for Arab rapprochement between polarized states, such as Syria and Saudi Arabia, which backs the Palestinian Authority.

Please note: These stories are located outside of Prophecy Today’s website. Prophecy Today is not responsible for their content and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed therein. These articles are provided for your information.

Next Step After Middle East Talks: A Major War?

By: Claude Salhani – Middle East Times

A senior high-ranking foreign diplomat who is well acquainted with the Middle East said Friday in Washington that “a major regional war is not inconceivable.”

A female member of Iran’s Basij militia in military maneuvers called ‘Martyrdom Lovers’ training in riot control, handling firearms and administering first aid at a Revolutionary Guards base outside Tehran on Oct. 8, 2008. It is clear that while the question of Palestine remains at the core of the Middle East’s problems, other sub-conflicts now command equal attention. (Abaca Press via Newscom)

Although war in the Middle East is not imminent, the risk of a generalized regional conflagration nevertheless persists. Among the fuses that could ignite the next fire is the continued lack of progress with the all-but-dead peace talks between Palestinians and Israelis, and what many Arab leaders consider to be Iran’s interference in Arab affairs.

As one Lebanese official who asked not to be named pointed out, Iran is like an octopus with its tentacles touching every aspect of the multitude of problems plaguing the Middle East today.

Indeed, if U.S. President Barack Obama’s administration is unable to revive the Middle East peace talks and to convince the parties concerned to move toward a settlement of the crisis, the ‘natural’ reaction could be another large-scale regional war. A war that could be precipitated by an attack on Iran by Israel, or an attack by Hezbollah on Israel.

Speaking off the record at a conference in Washington last week the diplomat said he feared that stagnation in the peace talks brought about by mounting extremism in the Middle East risks taking the entire region down a rather perilous road. An extremism that is equally visible on the Arab as well as on the Israeli side.

It is clear that while the question of Palestine remains at the core of the Middle East’s problems, other sub-conflicts now command equal attention.

What used to be a single track dispute in the Middle East, basically a dispute over real estate, has evolved into a multiple track conflict and in turn each track, or conflict, has spawned off a number of very complicated sub-conflicts.

Far more worrisome is that the real estate dispute has turned into a conflict driven by religious fervor propelled by the Iranian Islamic revolution. For the first time since its inception 30 years ago the Iranians are finally starting to see some success in their efforts to bridge the Sunni-Shiite schism.

Close cooperation has been established between Iran and Sunni jihadist groups now settled in the Palestinian refugee camps in Lebanon, turning Lebanon into a microcosm of the many problems affecting the region today, and which have become inseparable.

For example, solving Lebanon’s internal issues such as the question of Hezbollah maintaining its weapons on the grounds that it is a resistance group fighting occupation will remain unsolvable until Israel withdraws from parts of south Lebanon it continues to occupy.

Israel claims these areas belong to Syria while Syria has not officially commented. Therefore, Lebanon’s internal issues are unlikely to be solved until an Israeli-Syrian peace accord can be reached.

Will that solve the question of Hezbollah’s guns? Not quite.

The Lebanese Shiite group’s Secretary General, Sayyid Hassan Nasrallah, has already stated that once the question of the south is resolved, there is still Jerusalem to liberate. In other words, there can be no resolution to the Lebanese internal question of Hezbollah’s weapons until a peace agreement between Israel and Syria is reached AND a peace agreement between Israel and the Palestinians is also reached.

That is easier said than done. Iran’s meddling in the Arab-Israeli dispute further complicates an already complex series of conflicts. There used to be one conflict in Palestine, there are now two: one involving Hamas and the other the Palestinian Authority. There used to be one conflict between the Arabs and Israel, there are now several: there is an Israeli-Syrian dispute, an Israeli-Lebanese dispute and an Israeli-Hezbollah dispute. There is now also an Israeli-Iranian dispute.

Can each of these conflicts be solved independently of the others? There are two schools of thought. A number of observers think it would be impossible to try and solve any one of these issues independently. Other observers say, all these different issues need to be addressed simultaneously.

Rendering negotiations even more tedious is that most of the groups in conflict with Israel today refuse to hold direct talks with the Jewish state. Hamas, Syria, Lebanon, Iran and Hezbollah refuse to engage Israel in direct talks, insisting instead on having negotiations with Israel conducted through third parties.

The bottom line here is that the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East has changed – and it would be safe to add, not for the better.

There was quasi unanimity among a number of senior diplomats, current and former U.S. State Department officials and leading experts on Lebanese affairs attending a conference in Washington last week that the new danger posed to the region is now clearly emanating from the Islamic Republic.

What makes this situation so much more volatile today is that all these problems have become intricately interwoven and in many instances, with Lebanon caught in its middle much as a fly in a spider’s web.

What happens in Lebanon in the upcoming June 7 parliamentary elections will in fact be a good litmus test for the rest of the region. At stake in these elections is the very essence of democracy taking hold in the Middle East. Lebanon’s June 7 elections are going to be a major test of Lebanon’s stability and its ability to demonstrate that it can hold on to its democracy, tattered as it might be.

Please note: These stories are located outside of Prophecy Today’s website. Prophecy Today is not responsible for their content and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed therein. These articles are provided for your information.

03/03/09

* ‘Obama seeks Russian deal on Iran’ US President Barack Obama suggested to Russian President Dmitri Medvedev that the United States would back off plans for a missile defense system in Eastern Europe in exchange for help stopping Iran from developing long-range weapons.

* US Israel support ‘unshakeable’ US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has restated “unshakeable” support for Israel, whatever type of government emerges from current coalition talks.

* Saudi urges joint Arab strategy on Iran Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal called on Tuesday for a joint Arab strategy to deal with the “Iranian challenge”.

* BGU combats nuclear proliferation Ben-Gurion University of the Negev engineers have developed a practical technique to “denature” plutonium created in large nuclear reactors.

* Vatican hosts Darwin conference The Vatican is sponsoring a five day conference to mark the 150th anniversary of the publication of Charles Darwin’s Origin of Species.

* Gulf TV in Hebrew seeks to educate Israelis on Islam Leaders of the Support Prophet Mohammed Organization, based in the Gulf state Bahrain, stressed on Sunday the need to establish a TV channel in Hebrew to teach Israelis about Islam’s values.

* Russia to deliver armored vehicles to PA Russia’s foreign minister reportedly says Moscow will soon deliver 50 armored vehicles to the Palestinian Authority.

* Clinton: Two-state solution is in Israel’s best interest U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton pledged on Tuesday to press hard for Palestinian statehood.

* Southeast Asian countries plan EU-style union by 2015 The leaders of ten Southeast Asian countries have signed a declaration to integrate their economies and construct an economic and political union modelled on that of the European Union by 2015.

* Iraq struggles with spending plan as oil dips Iraqi lawmakers struggled Tuesday to hammer out spending plans that could include additional cuts in reconstruction and military purchases because of falling oil prices.

03/02/09

* Iran’s uranium is enough for a bomb Iran has enough nuclear material to build a bomb, the United States’ most senior military commander has said.

* Mideast envoy Tony Blair visits Gaza Quartet Mideast envoy Tony Blair visited the Gaza Strip on Sunday morning to discuss reconstruction efforts in the territory.

* We cannot afford more setbacks Hillary Clinton called for urgent action to break the cycle of Mideast violence and to move toward peace in the region.

* No money to Gaza until rockets stop Prime Minister-designate Netanyahu voiced serious reservations about money going into the Gaza Strip for reconstruction before the rocket fire on Israel has stopped.

* Next Step After Middle East Talks: A Major War? A senior diplomat said that “a major regional war is not inconceivable.”

* Palestinians Take First New Reconciliation Steps The Palestinian factions realized that the time is ripe to launch reconciliation talks to end the deep rifts that were threatening their cause for self-determination.

* Netanyahu still hoping for broad gov’t Prime Minister-designate Netanyahu told Likud members that he has not yet given up hope of forming a unity government with Labor.

* Islamic banks better in crisis Indonesian President Yudhoyono has called on Islamic banks to take a leadership role in the global economy, amid the financial crisis.

* Israel planning 73,300 new homes in West Bank A report by the Israeli left-wing NGO Peace Now says that the government is planning to build more than 73,300 new housing units in the West Bank.

02/28/09

* No deal in Israel coalition talks Israel’s prime minister-designate Benjamin Netanyahu says talks to include the centrist Kadima party in a coalition have ended without agreement.

* Netanyahu: Palestinians should govern their own lives, but not threaten ours Prime Minister-designate Benjamin Netanyahu says he believes in the Palestinians’ right to self governance.

* Obama outlines Iraq pullout plan President Barack Obama has announced the withdrawal of most US troops in Iraq by the end of August 2010.

* Nasrallah’s deputy: Hizbullah prepared for another conflict with Israel Hizbullah is prepared for the possibility of another armed conflict with Israel.

* East-West divide plagues Europe European leaders are converging on Brussels this weekend for yet another “emergency” economic summit meeting.

* Vatican rejects bishop’s apology The Vatican has rejected an apology by a British bishop who denied the full extent of the Holocaust.

* Russian bomber neared Canada before Obama visit Canadian fighters planes scrambled to intercept an approaching Russian bomber less than 24 hours before U.S. President Barack Obama’s visit to Ottawa last week.

* Clinton: Hamas must recognize Israel Egyptian-brokered efforts to bring about reconciliation between Hamas and Fatah will only work if the Islamic group recognizes Israel.

* US may boycott racism conference The US is likely to boycott a UN racism conference, reports suggest, saying a text drawn up for the event criticises Israel and restricts freedom of speech.

* Russia’s Putin warns against economic protests Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin warned opposition critics on Friday not to use the economic crisis as an excuse to challenge his government and told them to abide by the law.

02/27/09

* Palestinians pledge era of unity Leaders of the rival Palestinian factions Hamas and Fatah have said they are entering a new era of reconciliation, after talks in Cairo.

* Barak: US must limit Iran diplo effort Defense Minister Ehud Barak on Thursday warned that it was critical that the United States limit the time-span of its diplomatic effort to rein in Iran’s nuclear drive.

* U.S. Retains Hidden Grip on Pakistan’s Nukes With Pakistan’s political instability spreading, nervous concern has mounted over the fate of Islamabad’s nuclear arsenal should Taliban sympathizers gain power.

* War crimes charges grow, J’lem silent As various individuals and organizations file petitions abroad against Israel for alleged war crimes, including at the International Criminal Court in The Hague, there is growing criticism in Jerusalem.

* U.S.-Syria talks chart way forward The State Department’s top Middle East official met Thursday with the Syrian ambassador to the United States.

* 40 days after war, Hamas rule of Gaza gaining legitimacy Three rockets fell Thursday in the area around the Gaza Strip, one in the yard of a Sderot home.

* Rice: U.S. will seek to end any ‘illicit’ nuclear ambitions by Iran The Obama administration will work to stop any “illicit” nuclear aspirations by Iran.

* Mitchell, Netanyahu meet on peace efforts US Middle East envoy George Mitchell held a series of talks Thursday in Tel Aviv with the country’s top leaders.

The Iran-Israel nuclear endgame is now much closer

By: Edwin Black – The Jerusalem Post

In recent days, four key developments have clicked in to edge Iran and Israel much closer to a military denouement with profound consequences for American oil that the nation is not prepared to meet.

Three F-16 jets during...

Three F-16 jets during maneuvers. (Illustrative photo)
Photo: IDF

What has happened?

First, Iran has proven it can successfully launch a satellite into outer space as it did on February 2. Teheran claimed, to the incredulity of Western governments, that the satellite was to monitor earthquakes and enhance communications. Few believe that, especially since America’s own space program continuously launches unpublished military satellite missions. Teheran plans three more satellites this year, creating an easily weaponized space net that worries American military planners.

Second, the International Atomic Energy Agency last week admitted that it had underestimated Iran’s nuclear stockpile by about one-third. The watchdog group now confirms Iran possesses 2,227 lbs. of nuclear material, sufficient to create at least one nuclear bomb. That stockpile includes 1,010 kilograms of low-enriched uranium hexafluoride, or approximately 700 kilograms containing the vital uranium 235 isotope, the stuff needed to weaponize.

Third, Iran has ramped up its enrichment program with thousands of new homegrown, highly advanced centrifuges. As The Cutting Edge News reported in April 2008, Iran wants 6,000 centrifuges to speed the enrichment of weapons-grade material. The number of working centrifuges now exceeds 5,400, including 164 new ones believed to be the faster and more efficient IR-2 and IR-3 models made in Iran. These new Iranian centrifuges are at least as sophisticated as its recently imported P-2 models.

American policymakers are now convinced that Iran, despite all protests and charades, is in a mad dash to create a deliverable nuclear weapon. The Obama administration has almost openly abandoned the assertions of the CIA’s much-questioned 2008 National Intelligence Estimate that concluded Iran was not pursuing nuclear weaponry for the simple reason that its atomic program and military programs were housed in separate buildings.

Fourth, Binyamin Netanyahu has just become prime minister of Israel. He is determined to take action before – not after – Iran achieves its nuclear potential. This creates a volatile, hair-trigger situation that could explode at any moment. Hence, the endgame is now vastly closer than it was in mid-January, when many believed Israel might take action during the lame-duck interregnum.

Israeli countermeasures to date have included a massive international covert program of equipment sabotage, assassination of key nuclear personnel and a vibrant diplomatic offensive. But all these efforts combined amount to nothing more than delaying tactics, as Iran is irrevocably determined to achieve a nuclear weapon as fast as possible. Many believe such a weapon will be used to fulfill its prediction that Israel will soon be wiped off the map.

THE CONSEQUENCES for this confrontation are apocalyptic because Iran’s full partner in this enterprise is Russia. The Russian company Atomstroiexport has provided most if not all of the nuclear material for the 1,000 megawatt Bushehr reactor, along with thousands of technicians to service and operate it.

Following its invasion of Georgia, Moscow forged ahead with final delivery plans for the S-300 advanced air defense system which can track scores of IAF airborne intruders simultaneously, whether low-level drones or high-altitude missiles, and shoot them down. But the S-300, the linchpin of Iran’s defense against Israel, will not be fully operational for several months, creating a narrow window for Israel to act. Indeed, Russia has just announced a pause in missile deliveries for the system in fear that it will accelerate an Israeli response.

Iran, of course, has repeatedly threatened to counter any such attack by closing the Strait of Hormuz, as well as launching missiles against the Ras Tanura Gulf oil terminal and bombarding the indispensable Saudi oil facility at Abqaiq which is responsible for some 65 percent of Saudi production. Any one of these military options, let alone all three, would immediately shut off 40% of all seaborne oil, 18% of global oil, and some 20% of America’s daily consumption.

America’s oil vulnerability has been back-burnered due to the economic crisis and the plunge in gasoline prices. However, the price of gasoline will not mitigate an interruption of oil flow. The price of oil does not impact its ability to flow through blocked or destroyed facilities. Indeed, an interruption would not restore prices to those of last summer – which Russian and Saudi oil officials say is needed – but probably zoom the pump cost to $20 per gallon.

American oil vulnerability in recent months has escalated precisely because of oil’s precipitous drop to $35 to $40 a barrel. At that price, America’s number one supplier, Canada, which supplies some 2 million out of 20 million barrels of oil a day, cannot afford to produce. Canadian oil sand petroleum is not viable below $70 a barrel. Much of Canada’s supply has already been cancelled or indefinitely postponed. America’s strategic petroleum reserve can only keep that country moving for approximately 57 days.

THE OBAMA ADMINISTRATION, like the Bush administration before it, has developed no plan or contingency legislation for an oil interruption, such as a surge in retrofitting America’s 250 million gas guzzling cars and trucks – each with a 10-year life – or a stimulus of the alternate fuel production needed to rapidly get off oil. Ironically, Iran has undertaken such a crash program converting some 20% of its gasoline fleet yearly to compressed natural gas (CNG) as a countermeasure to Western nuclear sanctions against the Teheran regime that could completely block the flow of gasoline to Iran. Iran has no refining capability.

The question of when and how this endgame will play out is not known by anyone. Israeli leaders wish to avoid military preemption at all costs if possible. But many feel the military moment must come; and when that moment does come, it will be swift, highly technologic and in the twinkling of an eye. But as one informed official quipped, “Those who know, don’t talk. Those who talk, don’t know.”

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02/26/09

* Barak: Time running out on Iran threat Defense Minister Ehud Barak said Wednesday that immediate diplomatic action must be taken on the Iranian nuclear program.

* Bibi against talks with a Hamas-PA gov’t Prime Minister-designate Binyamin Netanyahu is expected to lobby Secretary of State Hillary Clinton next week.

* Palestinians relaunch unity talks Leaders of the rival Palestinian factions Hamas and Fatah have opened reconciliation talks in a renewed effort to create a unity government.

* U.N.: 15,000 flee southern Darfur Fighting has prompted thousands of people in the southern part of Sudan’s Darfur region to seek security and shelter at a refugee camp in the northern part of the war-torn area.

* U.S. envoy, Netanyahu meet on peace efforts The special U.S. envoy tasked with jump-starting flagging peace talks between Israel and the Palestinians huddled Thursday with designated Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

* EU trio proposing more sanctions for Iran Three EU members proposed tougher sanctions against Iran to possibly aid the United States in its expected engagement with Iran.

* ‘Reactor highlights world’s failure’ The activation of the Bushehr nuclear reactor in Iran demonstrates the international community’s failure to stop the Islamic republic.

* US military weaning Iraq’s army from support There was the time the Iraqis spent millions of dollars on ammunition from Romania, only to discover that it was defective or didn’t fit their U.S.- or Russian-made weapons.

* The Iran-Israel nuclear endgame is now much closer In recent days, four key developments have clicked in to edge Iran and Israel much closer to a military denouement with profound consequences for American oil that the nation is not prepared to meet.

* Financial crisis threatens east-west divide in EU Eastern European member states’ fears that they will be left behind by richer EU members in the economic crisis are growing.