11/24/07

* Hamas ‘shocked’ by Arab participation in ME conference Hamas expressed dismay Saturday at Arab foreign ministers’ unanimous decision to participate in next week’s Middle East peace conference in the United States.

* Lebanon faces power vacuum threat Lebanon is facing a potential power vacuum after its president left office with no elected successor, and rivals argue over who will now take control.

* Olmert discusses Annapolis with Merkel Prime Minister Ehud Olmert stressed his “great interest” in a successful outcome to next week’s Middle East peace conference.

* Musharraf confirmed as president The election of Pervez Musharraf as Pakistan’s president has been confirmed by the country’s election commission following a high court ruling.

* Israel, PA fail to draft joint statement Israel and the Palestinian Authority have failed to draft a joint statement to be presented at next week’s US-sponsored Middle East conference.

* Dollar Drops to Record Low Against Euro The dollar hit a new low against the euro in thin trading Friday as speculation continued that the American credit crisis will lead to another cut in interest rates in the U.S.

* Arab League: Discuss Golan at Annapolis conference A senior Arab diplomat said Friday that the Arab League would demand that the US include a discussion on the future of the Golan Heights.

* A nuclear wake-up call The sharp criticism of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad by an Iranian newspaper close to Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei has understandably attracted world-wide attention.

* Danish government wants second referendum on euro The recently re-elected Danish government has announced a referendum on scrapping one or more of the country’s four EU opt-outs from 1993.

* High price of failure raises urgency of Mideast peace conference Next week’s Mideast peace conference is unlike any previous U.S. attempt to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Specters of al-Qaida

By: Nathan Thrall – The Jerusalem Post

On November 20, 1979, at the first dawn of the 15th Muslim century, several hundred armed rebels laid siege to the holiest place in Islam, the Masjid al-Haram or Grand Mosque of Mecca. The Wahhabi revolutionaries, led by Juhayman al-Uteybi, a former Saudi national guardsman, chained shut each of the mosque’s 51 gates before announcing their apocalyptic message to the nearly 100,000 pilgrims trapped inside.

Proclaiming that the corruption, decadence and vice exhibited by the illegitimate Saudi kingdom – its rulers, pawns of the infidels – was a clear sign that the end of days was near, they declared that among their number was the messiah-like redeemer of Islam – the mahdi, or guided one, who will bring justice to Earth.

For the next 13 days, the zealous, ascetic rebels – whose primarily Arab and Saudi Beduin ranks also included two African-American converts – waged fierce battle against inept, rivalrous Saudi forces within the mosque’s vast compound. Their largely forgotten revolt, pointedly absent from Saudi history books, is the subject of Wall Street Journal correspondent Yaroslav Trofimov’s nonfiction thriller, The Siege of Mecca: The Forgotten Uprising in Islam’s Holiest Shrine and the Birth of al Qaeda. As his subtitle asserts, Trofimov has larger ambitions than to illuminate an important, neglected event.

Even as he claims that Juhayman’s uprising was merely “a precursor of al Qaeda” – multinational, Wahhabi, vehemently anti-Shi’ite, savvy in staging spectacular media events, harboring ambitions of unifying the Islamic world – he also hints that the siege was a necessary condition of al-Qaida’s birth. “With the benefit of hindsight, it is painfully clear: The countdown to September 11, to the terrorist bombings in London and Madrid, and to the grisly Islamist violence ravaging Afghanistan and Iraq all began on that warm November morning.”

That Juhayman and Osama bin Laden’s groups sprang from similar causes is beyond question. Both men were raised in a rapidly modernizing Saudi state whose leaders had abandoned in all but name the uncompromising Wahhabi ideology on which their forbears rode to power. Both figures attracted pupils of exiled Egyptian and Syrian clerics who taught that it is a religious duty to oppose rulers who do not uphold the tenets of Islam. And both decried the hypocrisy of a kingdom whose senior religious authority forbade the display of graven images, while royal portraits adorned official buildings and Saudi riyals.

But does all this add up to a convincing case that Juhayman’s group was a cause of al-Qaida’s birth? Trofimov thinks so. Yet aside from noting the many al-Qaida leaders who have been influenced by Juhayman’s writings (originally published, incidentally, by an Iraqi Ba’athist-affiliated publisher), the bulk of his argument consists of weaving together a series of varied and intricately connected repercussions of the Mecca uprising.

The siege began just weeks after the storming of the US embassy in Teheran. It also coincided with a series of frightening protests among Saudi Arabia’s 350,000-strong Shi’ite minority, many of them waving posters of Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Khomeini. Amid widespread suspicion of Iranian involvement in the Mecca uprising, Khomeini deftly turned the accusations on their head, stating in a radio broadcast that “it is not far-fetched to assume” that the events in Mecca had “been perpetrated by the criminal American imperialism.”

In the days that followed, credulous Muslims set fire to American embassies from Libya to Bangladesh, prompting so much panic within the Carter administration that secretary of state Cyrus Vance withdrew American personnel from across the Middle East.

Trofimov also contends that America’s precipitous decline in influence, coupled with its unmistakable display of cowardice, emboldened future jihadists as well as the Soviet Union. Just one week after the Mecca crisis and the ensuing withdrawal of American personnel, with their self-confidence at new heights the Soviets decided to invade Afghanistan. That invasion, in turn, encouraged the Carter administration to make two decisions of great consequence to al-Qaida’s growth: first, to increase the American military presence in the Middle East, thus, in Trofimov’s view, propelling additional recruits to al-Qaida’s ranks, and second, to decide, together with Saudi Arabia, to harness this newly discovered Islamist upsurge and use it against the Soviet Union in Afghanistan.

Just how these events would have played out in the absence of a siege of Mecca is the unanswerable question that hovers over much of Trofimov’s thesis. The central causal link he identifies between Juhayman and bin Laden is the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, but that event, as Trofimov notes, had at least as much to do with Soviet indignation at an unrelated deployment of a US aircraft carrier in the Persian Gulf.

Still, the siege of Mecca was a fascinating, portentous event, and Trofimov succeeds in his primary task of engagingly telling the tale while revealing the fragility of a kingdom containing many subjects who are more sympathetic to militant Wahhabis than to the House of Saud.

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11/23/07

* Moussa: ‘No normalization for free’ Arab League Secretary General said early on Friday that Arab countries would not offer Israel “normalization for free”.

* PA Negotiator: Go Back to 1947 Partition Plan In the course of recent negotiations, Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni asked the head of the Palestinian Authority’s negotiating team, Ahmed Qureia (Abu Ala), to accept Israel as a Jewish state.

* Analysis: A Mideast nuclear war? Anthony Cordesman may be the most influential man in Washington that most people have never heard of.

* Arabs seek to justify joining Annapolis Arab leaders were scurrying in Egypt Thursday to formulate a united Arab position at the U.S.-sponsored Middle East conference in Annapolis next week.

* Olmert Plans to Evict Hevron Jewish House, Community Defiant Senior Palestinian Authority (PA) officials say they have been guaranteed by Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert that Jews will be evicted from Hevron’s Beit HaShalom.

* Lebanese fail to elect president Lebanese MPs have failed to convene to elect a new president as the term of the incumbent, Emile Lahoud, expires.

* Israel Becoming Less Secular An Israel Democratic Institute (IDI) demographic survey finds religious growth and secular decline – but most significant is that the proportion of religious in the public is highest among the youth.

* UN uncertainty over nuclear Iran Iran’s track record of hiding nuclear activities means the UN cannot be sure about what Iran is doing now, the head of the UN’s nuclear watchdog has said.

* Barroso considered resigning as commission chief European Commission chief Jose Manuel Barroso has admitted he considered resigning from the top Brussels job.

* Pakistan suspension ‘unjustified’ Pakistan says the Commonwealth decision to suspend it from the body because of the imposition of emergency rule is “unreasonable and unjustified”.

11/22/07

* US will try to close Israeli-Palestinian peace deal by 2009 Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said Wednesday the United States will try to close a peace deal between Israel and the Palestinians before President George W. Bush’s term ends in January 2009, but she cautioned there is no guarantee of success.

* Egypt to host Arab leaders ahead of Annapolis talks In a flurry of diplomatic activity ahead of a key US-sponsored Mideast conference, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak said Wednesday he will be holding talks with the leaders of Jordan and the Palestinians in the Red Sea resort town of Sharm el-Sheik.

* Court upholds Musharraf election Pakistan’s new Supreme Court has – as expected – dismissed the final legal challenge to the recent re-election of President Pervez Musharraf.

* Iran: Middle East security at risk Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator warned on Thursday that any threat against Tehran would undermine the stability of the entire Middle East.

* PA government weak, but seeks peace, says Olmert Prime minister meets Kadima’s Young Guard, says current Palestinian leadership unable to control terror, enforce its authority, but it is first government to state it’s interested in peace with Israel.

* Tehran paper attacks Ahmadinejad In a rare attack on Iran’s president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, a hardline newspaper has accused him of behaving immorally towards his political rivals.

* Putin attacks ‘jackal’ opponents Russian President Vladimir Putin has accused opposition politicians of scavenging like jackals for funds from foreign embassies.

* Oil Hesitates on Drive to $100 a Barrel It didn’t happen Wednesday, it may not happen Thanksgiving day, but the price of oil seems destined to burst through the $100 mark sometime soon, leaving higher pump prices and rising heating fuel costs in its wake.

* Syria: ‘Thanks but No Thanks’ to Annapolis Invitation Syrian officials said Thursday the country will not be sending any representatives to next week’s Annapolis summit. Tuesday, it said it would.

* ‘Israeli Jews classified as traditional’ Jewish observance in Israeli society can be classified as traditional and this traditionalism has held steady over the past three decades, according to findings of a survey published by the Israel Democracy Institute on Thursday.

11/21/07

* ‘Olmert lubricating wheels of terror with his bare hands’ Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is lubricating the wheels of terror with his bear hands and selling the Israeli citizens’ security for nothing.

* ‘One Jerusalem’ Campaign to Fill J’lem with Gold “One Jerusalem,” a high profile organization created following the Camp David summit of 2000 to mobilize international grass roots support for keeping Jerusalem united under Israeli sovereignty.

* US confirms Mid-East peace talks The US has confirmed it will host a conference on Middle East peace next week aimed at relaunching negotiations to create a Palestinian state.

* PKK warns US, Iraq not to help Turkey A senior Kurdish rebel commander has warned US authorities and Iraqi Kurds against helping Turkey in a possible cross-border offensive.

* Putin attacks ‘jackal’ opponents Russian President Vladimir Putin has accused opposition politicians of scavenging like jackals for funds from foreign embassies.

* Syria, Saudi Arabia invited to Annapolis Israel and the Palestinian Authority received official invitations to the Annapolis peace conference Tuesday.

* Ahmadinejad: Annapolis conference will hurt Palestinians The Annapolis peace conference is doomed for failure and will only harm Palestinian interests, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said.

* Russia to provide Egypt with nuclear expertise Russia has agreed to provide nuclear know-how and technical expertise to Egypt to help Cairo with plans to build civilian nuclear power stations to meet growing energy needs.

* EU-Turkey membership talks to move a step further in December The EU is planning to open two new chapters of its accession negotiations package with Turkey in December.

* Iraqis return home ‘in thousands’ An estimated 1,000 people a day are returning across Iraq’s borders having previously moving abroad to escape the violence, Iraqi authorities say.

Analysis: Iran’s secret Syrian plan

By: Oliver Guitta – Middle East Times

Israel has been providing intelligence and satellite images to the U.S. about a secret Syrian nuclear program for several months, according to media reports. Discussions between Israel and the United States took place last summer regarding a possible strike. But when Israel found the matter so pressing that when they realized the U.S. was not ready to act, on September 6 they attacked a Syrian nuclear site. Hence the question: what is Syria really up to or more to the point what is Iran up to?

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Turkish Soldiers Continue to Deploy at Iraqi Border

By: Dorian Jones – VOA News

Turkey is still massing tens of thousands soldiers on the Iraqi border, a response to a series of attacks by Kurdish militants that have claimed the lives of more than 50 soldiers and civilians. Rebels of the Kurdistan Workers Party or PKK, many based in northern Iraq, have been fighting Turkey for autonomy for more than 20 years. But as Dorian Jones reports from Istanbul, the expected Turkish military incursion is not just about the PKK.

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Cloning: a giant step

By: Steve Connor – Independent News and Media Limited

A technical breakthrough has enabled scientists to create for the first time dozens of cloned embryos from adult monkeys, raising the prospect of the same procedure being used to make cloned human embryos.

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Report: ‘World at peak oil output’

By: Phil Black – Cable News Network

The world has reached the point of maximum oil output and production levels will halve by 2030 — a situation that will eventually lead to war and disaster, a report claims.

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New ‘disaster’ movie warns world of oil apocalypse

By: Rbin McKie – Guardian Unlimited

Oil is ‘the bloodstain of the earth’s economy’ and will soon trigger a global conflict that will cost millions of lives. That is the stark claim of a controversial new film, which says a crash in oil production is about to set off worldwide recession and economic collapse.

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