By: Robert Maginnis – Human Events

In 1952, Republican presidential candidate Dwight Eisenhower was critical of our Korean War effort but didn’t visit the war front until after elected. Today, Barack Obama, the presumptive Democratic presidential candidate, is critical of our Iraq war effort but visited the war zone two years ago. Obama needs a refresher visit before the election and not only because he’s no Eisenhower, but because Iraq has improved and Baghdad may soon give America its walking papers thus creating a major challenge for the next president.

Eisenhower was a retired Army five-star general who had been Supreme Commander in Europe in World War II. He knew what to look for in a major ground war and needed no on-the-ground visits to understand the strategic challenges. Nonetheless, despite his rich experience candidate Eisenhower admitted that only a visit to Korea would help him to “…learn how best to serve the American people in the cause of peace.”

The presumptive Republican presidential candidate Senator John McCain is a retired naval aviator who has visited Iraq eight times, most recently this March. McCain, like Eisenhower, understands that experiencing the war zone is something wannabe commanders-in-chief must do. That’s why McCain has encouraged Senator Obama to revisit Iraq.

“I’m confident that when he [Obama] goes he will then change his position on the conflict in Iraq,” said McCain. But Obama spokesman Bill Burton retorted that it was “…odd that Senator McCain, who bought the flawed rationale for war so readily, would be lecturing others on their depth of understanding about Iraq.”

There are risks associated with another trip for Obama, however. An army colonel in Baghdad said that if Obama returns to Iraq he will “be surprised” by the improvements which “…might change some of his thoughts.” A reality check could make a shambles of Obama’s entire Iraq position and alienate a major pool of supporters. Cynically, even if he went, he might feel compelled to explain away any improvements observed.

To his credit, Obama says he is considering a foreign trip this summer and “Iraq would obviously be at the top of the list of stops.” “I think that if I’m going to Iraq, then I’m there to talk to troops and talk to commanders, I’m not there to try to score political points or perform,” Mr. Obama said. This begs the question: Why take a foreign trip if not to visit the war zone? Besides, politicians in full campaign mode “…try to score political points” at every turn.

However hypothetically, should Obama make the trip he will find that Iraq has improved in many areas and that won’t comport with his campaign rhetoric. Specifically, neighborhoods once controlled by al Qaeda have been liberated. Sectarian violence is down and cooperation from Iraqis is stronger than ever.

A new security phenomena is the 90,000-strong Sons of Iraq (formerly known as Concerned Local Citizens), the local security militia paid $10 per day to maintain order and to collect intelligence in their neighborhoods. A US colonel says the Sons of Iraq is a “…permanent security solution” that gets “…people to stand up and assume security of their own given area.”

Senator Obama will learn that Iraq’s economy is surging. The International Monetary Fund announced that Iraq’s gross domestic product will rise seven percent in 2009 and its inflation which peaked at 65 percent in 2006 is projected to be 12 percent for 2008.

Iraq is weaning itself from American aid. This year Iraqis will outspend the US for reconstruction by more than 10 to one, and American funding for large-scale reconstruction projects will approach zero. Also, the US share of Iraq’s security costs are dropping and we expect Iraq will soon shoulder the full burden of these costs. Much of the good economic news is due to oil revenues which this year are expected to reach a record $70 billion.

Perhaps most importantly, Iraq is making significant political progress from the bottom-up. Iraqi leaders increasingly act together, share power, and forge compromises such as the Amnesty and De-baathification laws. Fall elections should consolidate this progress at the provincial level to help locals settle disputes through politics rather than violence.

All the improvements mask a serious problem for Washington and Obama ought to visit to best understand the dynamics. We are negotiating a political time bomb with the Iraqis that could quickly propel US forces out of Iraq at Baghdad’s request. The next president must thoroughly understand this challenge.

For months, Ryan Crocker, the US ambassador to Iraq, and members of the Iraqi government have been negotiating a bilateral Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) — the time bomb — to replace the United Nations mandate that expires in December 2008 and allows foreign troops in Iraq. Crocker promises that any US-Iraq agreement will “…reaffirm Baghdad’s full sovereignty.” But that agreement is in jeopardy.

Iraq’s most revered Shia cleric Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani opposes the proposed agreement. Sistani said he would not allow Iraq to sign such a deal with “the US occupiers” as long as he was alive. This stark view is shared by many in Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki’s Shia-dominated government as well as many in the government’s Sunni opposition.

That’s why it is quite possible that the UN mandate will expire and there will be no SOFA with Iraq. That would mean the US must leave. And isn’t that what we have said we are fighting for? To give the Iraqis their country back? We would lose all credibility if we do otherwise and it would validate al Qaeda’s points that we are just there to occupy Iraq. We’re kind of stuck.

No matter the circumstances that cause America to leave Iraq, Obama and the rest of Washington should be concerned that Baghdad is unprepared to survive without our help and regional instability could grow especially if Iran seeks to fill the vacuum. What will the next president do? The best we could do is withdraw to Kuwait and be ready to respond. That would deter Iran and reassure our regional allies like Saudi Arabia.

In December 1952, President-Elect Eisenhower traveled to Korea to “find an honorable way to end the war.” The Korean Armistice was signed the following August. A similar timeline ought to be on the mind of our next president.

America deserves a substantive debate between the presidential candidates on how this war can be brought to an honorable end. That’s why in-depth, on-the-ground experience for both candidates is an absolute necessity and especially now that the Iraqis appear ready to push America out the door creating more instability.

* Russia warns against attacking Iran Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on Friday warned against the use of force on Iran.

* U.S. says exercise by Israel seemed directed at Iran Israel carried out a major military exercise earlier this month that American officials say appeared to be a rehearsal for a potential bombing attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

* World population to hit 7 billion in 2012 The world’s population will reach 7 billion in 2012, even as the global community struggles to satisfy its appetite for natural resources.

* Iran: We’ll hit back with ‘strong blow’ Iran on Friday warned Israel it would retaliate to an attack with a “strong blow,” after the New York Times reported that the IAF had conducted a drill.

* Czech threat looms for EU treaty EU leaders have admitted that the Czech Republic may not be able to ratify the Lisbon Treaty, which has already been rejected by the Irish.

* Hamas TV Teaches Youth to Kidnap IDF Soldiers While Gaza terrorists replenish their arms and ammunition during the temporary truce that began Thursday morning, Hamas TV is broadcasting a training video.

* Jerusalem officials to High Court: Gay parade desecrates holy city Jerusalem’s mayor and city manager urged the High Court of Justice on Thursday to prevent the Gay Pride parade from taking place in the capital next Thursday.

* UN classifies rape a ‘war tactic’ The UN Security Council has voted unanimously in favour of a resolution classifying rape as a weapon of war.

* Ireland’s Choice may Affect European Clout The affairs of Ireland would seem on the surface to have little to do with the Middle East.

* Israel’s Messianic Jews: Police indifferent to threats against us Safety pins and screws are still lodged in 15-year-old Ami Ortiz’s body three months after he opened a booby-trapped gift basket sent to his family.

By: Andrew E. Kramer – The International Herald Tribune

Four Western oil companies are in the final stages of negotiations this month on contracts that will return them to Iraq, 36 years after losing their oil concession to nationalization as Saddam Hussein rose to power.

Exxon Mobil, Shell, Total and BP — the original partners in the Iraq Petroleum Company — along with Chevron and a number of smaller oil companies, are in talks with Iraq’s Oil Ministry for no-bid contracts to service Iraq’s largest fields, according to ministry officials, oil company officials and an American diplomat.

The deals, expected to be announced on June 30, will lay the foundation for the first commercial work for the major companies in Iraq since the American invasion, and open a new and potentially lucrative country for their operations.

The no-bid contracts are unusual for the industry, and the offers prevailed over others by more than 40 companies, including companies in Russia, China and India. The contracts, which would run for one to two years and are relatively small by industry standards, would nonetheless give the companies an advantage in bidding on future contracts in a country that many experts consider to be the best hope for a large-scale increase in oil production.

There was suspicion among many in the Arab world and among parts of the American public that the United States had gone to war in Iraq precisely to secure the oil wealth these contracts seek to extract. The Bush administration has said that the war was necessary to combat terrorism. It is not clear what role the United States played in awarding the contracts; there are still American advisers to Iraq’s Oil Ministry.

Sensitive to the appearance that they were profiting from the war and already under pressure because of record high oil prices, senior officials of two of the companies, speaking only on the condition that they not be identified, said they were helping Iraq rebuild its decrepit oil industry.

For an industry being frozen out of new ventures in the world’s dominant oil-producing countries, from Russia to Venezuela, Iraq offers a rare and prized opportunity.

While enriched by $140 per barrel oil, the oil majors are also struggling to replace their reserves as ever more of the world’s oil patch becomes off limits. Governments in countries like Bolivia and Venezuela are nationalizing their oil industries or seeking a larger share of the record profits for their national budgets. Russia and Kazakhstan have forced the major companies to renegotiate contracts.

The Iraqi government’s stated goal in inviting back the major companies is to increase oil production by half a million barrels per day by attracting modern technology and expertise to oil fields now desperately short of both. The revenue would be used for reconstruction, although the Iraqi government has had trouble spending the oil revenues it now has, in part because of bureaucratic inefficiency.

For the American government, increasing output in Iraq, as elsewhere, serves the foreign policy goal of increasing oil production globally to alleviate the exceptionally tight supply that is a cause of soaring prices.

The Iraqi Oil Ministry, through a spokesman, said the no-bid contracts were a stop-gap measure to bring modern skills into the fields while the oil law was pending in Parliament.

It said the companies had been chosen because they had been advising the ministry without charge for two years before being awarded the contracts, and because these companies had the needed technology.

A Shell spokeswoman hinted at the kind of work the companies might be engaged in. “We can confirm that we have submitted a conceptual proposal to the Iraqi authorities to minimize current and future gas flaring in the south through gas gathering and utilization,” said the spokeswoman, Marnie Funk. “The contents of the proposal are confidential.”

While small, the deals hold great promise for the companies.

“The bigger prize everybody is waiting for is development of the giant new fields,” Leila Benali, an authority on Middle East oil at Cambridge Energy Research Associates, said in a telephone interview from the firm’s Paris office. The current contracts, she said, are a “foothold” in Iraq for companies striving for these longer-term deals.

Any Western oil official who comes to Iraq would require heavy security, exposing the companies to all the same logistical nightmares that have hampered previous attempts, often undertaken at huge cost, to rebuild Iraq’s oil infrastructure.

And work in the deserts and swamps that contain much of Iraq’s oil reserves would be virtually impossible unless carried out solely by Iraqi subcontractors, who would likely be threatened by insurgents for cooperating with Western companies.

Yet at today’s oil prices, there is no shortage of companies coveting a contract in Iraq. It is not only one of the few countries where oil reserves are up for grabs, but also one of the few that is viewed within the industry as having considerable potential to rapidly increase production.

David Fyfe, a Middle East analyst at the International Energy Agency, a Paris-based group that monitors oil production for the developed countries, said he believed that Iraq’s output could increase to about 3 million barrels a day from its current 2.5 million, though it would probably take longer than the six months the Oil Ministry estimated.

Fyfe’s organization estimated that repair work on existing fields could bring Iraq’s output up to roughly four million barrels per day within several years. After new fields are tapped, Iraq is expected to reach a plateau of about six million barrels per day, Fyfe said, which could suppress current world oil prices.

The contracts, the two oil company officials said, are a continuation of work the companies had been conducting here to assist the Oil Ministry under two-year-old memorandums of understanding. The companies provided free advice and training to the Iraqis. This relationship with the ministry, said company officials and an American diplomat, was a reason the contracts were not opened to competitive bidding.

A total of 46 companies, including the leading oil companies of China, India and Russia, had memorandums of understanding with the Oil Ministry, yet were not awarded contracts.

The no-bid deals are structured as service contracts. The companies will be paid for their work, rather than offered a license to the oil deposits. As such, they do not require the passage of an oil law setting out terms for competitive bidding. The legislation has been stalled by disputes among Shiite, Sunni and Kurdish parties over revenue sharing and other conditions.

The first oil contracts for the majors in Iraq are exceptional for the oil industry.

They include a provision that could allow the companies to reap large profits at today’s prices: the ministry and companies are negotiating payment in oil rather than cash.

“These are not actually service contracts,” Benali said. “They were designed to circumvent the legislative stalemate” and bring Western companies with experience managing large projects into Iraq before the passage of the oil law.

A clause in the draft contracts would allow the companies to match bids from competing companies to retain the work once it is opened to bidding, according to the Iraq country manager for a major oil company who did not consent to be cited publicly discussing the terms.

Assem Jihad, the Oil Ministry spokesman, said the ministry chose companies it was comfortable working with under the charitable memorandum of understanding agreements, and for their technical prowess. “Because of that, they got the priority,” he said.

In all cases but one, the same company that had provided free advice to the ministry for work on a specific field was offered the technical support contract for that field, one of the companies’ officials said.

The exception is the West Qurna field in southern Iraq, outside Basra. There, the Russian company Lukoil, which claims a Saddam-era contract for the field, had been providing free training to Iraqi engineers, but a consortium of Chevron and Total, a French company, was offered the contract. A spokesman for Lukoil declined to comment.

Charles Ries, the chief economic official in the American Embassy in Baghdad, described the no-bid contracts as a bridging mechanism to bring modern technology into the fields before the oil law was passed, and as an extension of the earlier work without charge.

To be sure, these are not the first foreign oil contracts in Iraq, and all have proved contentious.

The Kurdistan regional government, which in many respects functions as an independent entity in northern Iraq, has concluded a number of deals. Hunt Oil Company of Dallas, for example, signed a production-sharing agreement with the regional government last fall, though its legality is questioned by the central Iraqi government. The technical support agreements, however, are the first commercial work by the major oil companies in Iraq.

The impact, experts say, could be remarkable increases in Iraqi oil output.

While the current contracts are unrelated to the companies’ previous work in Iraq, in a twist of corporate history for some of the world’s largest companies, all four oil majors that had lost their concessions in Iraq are now back.

But a spokesman for Exxon said the company’s approach to Iraq was no different from its work elsewhere.

“Consistent with our longstanding, global business strategy, ExxonMobil would pursue business opportunities as they arise in Iraq, just as we would in other countries in which we are permitted to operate,” the spokesman, Len D’Eramo, said in an e-mailed statement.

But the company is clearly aware of the history. In an interview with Newsweek last fall, the former chief executive of Exxon, Lee Raymond, praised Iraq’s potential as an oil-producing country and added that Exxon was in a position to know. “There is an enormous amount of oil in Iraq,” Raymond said. “We were part of the consortium, the four companies that were there when Saddam Hussein threw us out, and we basically had the whole country.”

* Israel and Hamas ceasefire begins A ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in Gaza has begun, despite a last-minute flurry of cross-border attacks.

* IAEA has proof Syria built nuclear reactor The website of the French news agency Le Monde reported that information originating in different countries other than the US and suggesting that Syria did indeed build a nuclear reactor in Al Kibar.

* Irish ‘No’ on EU leaders’ agenda European Union leaders are due to attend a summit in Brussels which is likely to be dominated by Ireland’s rejection of the EU treaty last week.

* Peres confronts Arab League leader at Jordanian convention President Shimon Peres on Wednesday confronted Arab League Secretary-General Amr Moussa during the Petra Convention in Jordan.

* Deals with Iraq are set to bring oil giants back Four Western oil companies are in the final stages of negotiations this month on contracts that will return them to Iraq.

* Netanyahu: Government’s consent to ceasefire inconceivable Opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu (Likud) harshly criticized the government decision to declare a temporary ceasefire with Hamas.

* UK ratifies Lisbon Treaty ahead of EU summit The British parliament has ratified the Lisbon Treaty amid unruly protests.

* Israel’s EU upgrade Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni and EU foreign ministers ushered in a new era in Israeli-European relations this week at a meeting in Luxembourg.

* Iraq launches offensive in Amara Iraqi security forces backed by US troops have launched a major operation in Amara, southern Iraq, overnight to drive out Shia militia groups.

* US N-weapons parts missing, Pentagon says The US military cannot locate hundreds of sensitive nuclear missile components, according to several government officials.

* As truce nears, IDF told to be ready Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said Wednesday he hopes the Gaza truce will hold.

* Sarkozy aide: Olmert and Assad could meet in Paris next month Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad could meet on the sidelines of a summit in Paris next month.

* Israel agrees to Gaza ceasefire Israel has approved a ceasefire to end months of bitter clashes with the Palestinian Islamist movement Hamas in Gaza, Israeli officials have confirmed.

* Israel says it’s ready to begin peace talks with Lebanon Government spokesman Mark Regev said on Wednesday that Israel is interested in direct, bilateral talks with Lebanon.

* Peres, King Abdullah meet in Petra President Shimon Peres arrived in Petra on Wednesday morning, where he met with King Abdullah II.

* Knesset Committee Passes Golan Bill in First Reading By an 8-4 vote, the Knesset House Committee passed an early version of a law requiring a popular referendum before the Golan could be given away.

* ANALYSIS / Cease-fire deal means Hamas is calling the shots The main points of a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas grant the Islamic organization a political and diplomatic achievement.

* Syria: Peace with Israel will be ‘bliss’ A senior Syrian official has expressed confidence regarding the possibility that indirect peace talks with Israel will come to fruition.

* MEPs in passionate war of words over Irish No Supporters and opponents of the Lisbon Treaty in the European Parliament have crossed rhetorical swords in a debate over the consequences of Ireland’s No to the document.

* Abbas to visit Gaza for dialogue with Hamas Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas is planning to visit the Gaza Strip for the first time since Hamas’s violent takeover of the area in June 2007.

By: Matti Friedman –

Valentine Vester, who witnessed history as the proprietor of one of the Middle East’s most storied hotels, has died. She was 96.

Read more….

By: Ehud Zion Waldoks – The Jerusalem Post

Five of the largest environmental organizations in Israel launched a joint public pressure campaign on Sunday to halt what they see as the headlong rush to begin the Red-Dead Sea canal project before feasibility studies have been completed.

Read more….(2 page article)

* Egypt, Hamas, PA confirm Gaza truce to start Thursday at 6 a.m. A Hamas spokesman said Tuesday that his was committed to an Egyptian-mediated truce deal with Israel.

* French defence to counter terror Terrorism is the main threat facing France and its defence system needs to change to reflect that.

* ‘Israel, Syria making progress in talks’ Indirect peace talks between Israel and Syria are making progress and both sides agreed to two more rounds under Turkish mediation next month.

* France refuses EU treaty revision The European Union must not embark on drafting a new treaty after Irish voters rejected the Lisbon Treaty.

* Rabbis against Pride Parade: God is testing us Jerusalem’s Open House announces city’s Pride Parade to be held next week.

* Tourism to Israel breaks all-time record in May Nearly 300,000 tourists visited Israel in May, an all-time record.

* Ramon: Truce a victory for radical Islam Objecting to the ceasefire: Vice Premier Haim Ramon said Tuesday evening that he opposes the Gaza Strip truce agreement.

* EU unanimously upgrades Israel ties, turning aside PA objections The European Union, turning aside Palestinian objections, has announced upgraded relations with Israel.

* Iran insists nuclear suspension a ‘red line’ Iran on Tuesday insisted any demands it should suspend sensitive atomic activities would cross its “red line”.

* Jerusalem hotel proprietor Valentine Vester dies Valentine Vester, who witnessed history as the proprietor of one of the Middle East’s most storied hotels, has died. She was 96.

* Bush and Brown’s warning to Iran Gordon Brown and President George Bush have warned Iran to accept their “offers of partnership” or face tough sanctions and international isolation.

* Historian: Jewish Towns Populated by Arab Late-Comers Historian Dr. Rivka Shpak-Lissak has embarked on an ambitious project, detailing the history of Jewish towns in the Land of Israel that are now known as Arab.

* UN chief: Saudi to boost oil production Saudi Arabia plans to increase its oil production by 200,000 barrels a day next month, the kingdom’s oil minister told U.N. chief Ban Ki-moon on Sunday, according to Ban’s spokesman.

* ‘Rice’s criticism ruffles few feathers’ US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice’s harsh criticism of Israel’s plan to continue building in east Jerusalem met with little panic and no formal response on Sunday, a sign – one government source said – that with less than five months to the US elections, “it is not that important what she says anymore.”

* Egypt says it wants Iran to play positive role Egypt constantly calls on Iran to use its influence in the Middle East in a positive manner, according to Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit.

* Gov’t approves e. J’lem housing project A Jerusalem Municipality plan to build tens of thousands of new apartments in the city, including a couple thousand flats in various Jewish neighborhoods of east Jerusalem, has received final approval, the municipality said Sunday.

* Get Osama Bin Laden before I leave office, orders George W Bush President George W Bush has enlisted British special forces in a final attempt to capture Osama Bin Laden before he leaves the White House.

* Nuclear ring reportedly had advanced design American and international investigators say that they have found the electronic blueprints for an advanced nuclear weapon on computers that belonged to the nuclear smuggling network run by Abdul Qadeer Khan, the rogue Pakistani nuclear scientist, but that they have not been able to determine whether they were sold to Iran or the smuggling ring’s other customers.

* Split emerges in EU after Ireland rejects treaty After Ireland’s rejection of the Lisbon Treaty, a split began to emerge Sunday in European capitals over whether to press Dublin to hold another vote – with an implicit threat to consign the Irish to an outer tier of the European Union should they say no again.

* Greens have big doubts about Red-Dead Canal Five of the largest environmental organizations in Israel launched a joint public pressure campaign on Sunday to halt what they see as the headlong rush to begin the Red-Dead Sea canal project before feasibility studies have been completed.

* EU grapples with Irish ‘No’ vote Governments in the European Union are exploring what to do after the Irish Republic’s rejection of the Lisbon Treaty to reform the expanded EU.

* ‘Peace isn’t the only way to get Golan’ One senior member of the foreign ministry suggested that if Israel did not willingly give up the Golan, then Syria would take it by force.

* Iran rules out halt to enrichment Tehran has warned it will reject any deal that demands it halt uranium enrichment – part of a new package of incentives from world powers.

* Bush, Sarkozy criticize Iran, Syria US President George W. Bush and French President Nicolas Sarkozy each directed one-two punches against Iran and Syria.

* Impasse in US-Iraqi forces talks Iraqi PM Nouri Maliki has said that talks with the US on a long-term agreement allowing US forces to remain in Iraq have “reached an impasse”.

* ‘Riyadh to increase oil production’ Saudi Arabia is planning to increase its oil production output next month by about a half-million barrels a day.

* Earthquake rocks northern Japan At least six people are dead and more than 140 injured after a powerful earthquake struck northern Japan, triggering landslides.

* Manhunt follows Taliban jail attack A hunt is under way for more than 870 prisoners who escaped from a jail in southern Afghanistan after Taliban fighters blew it open, killing 15 security guards.

* U.S. pastor apologizes to Jews for ‘God sent Hitler’ comments A prominent American televangelist and outspoken supporter of Israel publicly apologized Friday for remarking that the Holocaust was the work of divine providence.

* Brussels calls for Lisbon treaty ratification to continue The European Commission has called for ratification of the Lisbon treaty to continue.