08/10/09

* Ceasefire bid amid Georgia crisis Russia and Georgia have accused each other of launching new attacks, as diplomats press for a ceasefire in the conflict over South Ossetia.

* Putin slams US for airlifting Georgian troops from Iraq Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin criticized the United States Monday for airlifting Georgian troops from Iraq.

* Kuwait Readying for War in Gulf? The small oil-rich emirate of Kuwait has reportedly activated its “Emergency War Plan” as a massive U.S. and European armada is reported heading for the region.

* Analysis: Back to the USSR After a bombardment by Russia’s aircraft, its tanks are advancing on the Georgian town of Gori – the birthplace of Iosif Djugashvili, better known as Stalin.

* Palestinians doubt two-state deal Israel’s strategy in negotiations could force the Palestinians to abandon their goal of a two-state solution, a top Palestinian negotiator says.

* EU-Russia relations in jeopardy as bombs hit Tbilisi The suspension of EU-Russia negotiations on a new bilateral pact, freezing talks on visa-free travel for Russian citizens and holding back EU humanitarian aid to Chechnya until Russia ends aggression in Georgia could be among ideas debated by EU foreign ministers.

* Turkey Dodging the Bullet – For Now Turkey’s Constitutional Court on July 30 averted a potentially explosive political crisis when its judges rejected an attempt by the State Prosecutor to ban the ruling Justice and Development Party.

* Siege-Breaking Vessels Set Sail for Gaza A dramatic confrontation in the Mediterranean Sea could break out within hours between the Israeli navy and two vessels sailing toward the Gaza coastline.

* “Terrorists” behind latest attack in northwest China “Terrorists” from the Muslim Uighur minority carried out the latest attack in northwest China, state media said.

* Syria-Israel talks could boost Europe’s Mideast ties The EU parliament chief praised renewed Syria-Israel peace talks and an upcoming meeting between the Syrian and Lebanese presidents as positive moves that could boost Europe’s ties with the region.

08/09/08

* Russian jets attack Georgian town Russian jets have bombed a Georgian town amid a deepening crisis over the breakaway South Ossetia region.

* US: Russia must halt attacks on Georgia The United States on Friday called on Russia to halt aircraft and missile attacks in Georgia’s breakaway region of South Osseti.

* “Seculars Want Temple’, as Fast of Av Begins Saturday Night The fast of Tisha B’Av, the “saddest” day in the Jewish calendar, begins on Saturday night as the Sabbath ends.

* 2008 Olympic Games open in Beijing Once-reclusive China commandeered the world stage Friday, celebrating its first-time role as Olympic host.

* Iraq’s Sadr launches unarmed wing Iraqi Shia cleric Moqtada Sadr has announced the creation of a cultural wing of his organisation, known for its Mehdi Army militia.

* Diplomats say Syria turned away IAEA Syria has blocked a new visit by International Atomic Energy Agency experts seeking to follow up on intelligence that Damascus built a secret nuclear program.

* Israeli sources: Peres meets with Putin in Beijing President Shimon Peres reportedly met with Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin in Beijing.

* US State Department Accuses Yad L’Achim In its International Religious Freedom Report for 2008, the United States State Department has accused the counter-missionary organization Yad L’Achim of using violence against those who come to Israel seeking to bring Jews to abandon Judaism.

* ‘Israeli Miracle’ is developing strong ties with Communist China Starting this afternoon and for the next 17 days, the gaze of the entire world will be set on the vast stadiums built by China.

* EU diplomats fly out to stop Georgia-Russia war EU and US diplomats are arriving in Georgia on Saturday (9 August) to try to broker a ceasefire.

08/08/08

* Russian tanks ‘rolling into Georgian breakaway’ Georgia’s president said Friday that his country is under attack from Russian tanks and warplanes.

* ‘We’ll neutralize S-300 if sold to Iran’ If Russia goes through with the sale of its most advanced anti-aircraft missile system to Iran, Israel will use an electronic warfare device.

* “Seculars Want Temple’, as Fast of Av Begins Saturday Night The fast of Tisha B’Av, the “saddest” day in the Jewish calendar, begins on Saturday night as the Sabbath ends.

* Germany: A hotbed of Hizbullah activity Khaled Kashkush is not the first Hizbullah spy to be recruited and trained in Germany.

* Israel slams Turkey over Ahmadinejad plan to visit Israel has officially protested against the planned visit of Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to Turkey next week.

* Analysis: Subtly and determinedly, Syria is taking over Lebanon Lebanese President Michel Suleiman is to visit Syria next week, to discuss the opening of diplomatic relations between the countries.

* Oil ‘could hit $200 within years’ A serious oil supply crisis is looming, which could push prices above $200 a barrel, a think tank has warned.

* Peres: China can be key to stopping Iran China can be a key player in preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons as well as in the war on terror.

* US State Department Accuses Yad L’Achim The United States State Department has accused the counter-missionary organization Yad L’Achim of using violence against those who come to Israel seeking to bring Jews to abandon Judaism.

* EU keeps ticking without Lisbon treaty, report says Europe continues to work without the Lisbon treaty and the demise of the document would not be a catastrophe for the bloc.

08/07/08

* ‘2 US aircraft carriers headed for Gulf’ Two additional United States naval aircraft carriers are heading to the Gulf and the Red Sea.

* Rice on IDF Iran strike: U.S. has no veto over Israeli military ops United States Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice on Thursday refrained from saying the U.S. would prevent Israel from mounting a much-touted attack against Iran.

* Somalia ‘threat’ to Kenya peace Kenya’s struggle with terrorism will continue as long as neighbouring Somalia remains lawless.

* European parliament chief: EU ready to broker Israel-Syria talks The European parliament chief said Thursday that the EU is prepared to broker Israel-Syria peace talks.

* Bullets to Ballots in Iraq The Mehdi Army is no longer up in arms. In fact, the Shiite militia that ruled Sadr City in Baghdad and parts of Basra has been ordered by its boss, the volatile young nationalist imam, Moqtada Sadr, to lay down its arms.

* Musharraf faces impeachment bid Pakistan’s ruling coalition parties say they will begin impeachment proceedings against President Pervez Musharraf.

* Sarkozy floats idea of joint commissioners French president Nicolas Sarkozy is considering proposals that countries of “similar culture and language circle” should share a commissioner.

* Net address bug worse than feared A recently found flaw in the internet’s addressing system is worse than first feared, says the man who found it.

* British consulate: Settlers attack U.K. diplomats on Hebron tour A small group of settlers attacked a delegation of British diplomats during a visit to the West Bank city of Hebron.

* Probing why Women Kill in Iraq A series of raids in Iraq’s troubled Diyala province last weekend included the arrest of a woman purportedly in charge of recruiting female suicide bombers.

Why Iran Won’t Budge on Nukes

By: Nahid Siamdoust – Time Inc.

Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad arrives at the presidential office to attend a welcoming ceremony for his Syrian counterpart Bashar al-Assad in Tehran
Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad arrives at the presidential office to attend a welcoming ceremony for his Syrian counterpart Bashar al-Assad in Tehran.

When U.S. officials appeal to the Iranian people over the heads of its regime, they like to assume that Tehran’s defiance on the nuclear issue reflects only the extremist position of an unrepresentative revolutionary leadership. Plainly, they haven’t met Dr. Akbar Etemad, who ran the nuclear program of the Shah’s regime, which was overthrown in the Islamic Revolution of 1979. The scientist who first launched Iran’s nuclear technology program under a U.S.-backed regime in 1974 today urges the regime that stripped him of his job to reject any international demand that it halt uranium enrichment.

Dr. Etemad told an academic conference in Toronto last weekend, “Iran already stopped nuclear enrichment at the behest of Europe for more than a year [a reference to Tehran’s suspension of enrichment between late 2003 and mid-2005, to allow negotiations with the European Union]. And what happened? Nothing.”

Iran delivered its response to the latest Western offer on the nuclear issue to E.U. officials in Brussels on Tuesday, and reportedly avoided any mention of a freeze on uranium enrichment. Britain, France and the U.S. have made clear that the consequence of Iran turning down the current offer will be a push for further U.N. sanctions against Tehran.

In an interview with TIME, the Swiss-educated scientist who lives in Paris and heads a group of prominent Iranian exiles that lobby against a military attack on Iran, said the solution to the nuclear standoff lay in re-establishing relations between Washington and Tehran. Although a senior U.S. diplomat joined the European-led delegation that met with Iranian officials in Geneva recently, Iran’s response to the nuclear proposal may make it difficult for the Bush Administration to create a diplomatic opening.

Surprising as it may be to hear a member of the Shah’s deposed regime support the stance of the Islamic Republic in a confrontation with the West, there is widespread concern among Iran experts that the current Western strategy of demanding that Iran forego the right to enrich uranium has created a diplomatic dead end.

Writing in the International Herald Tribune last week, Trita Parsi, President of the National Iranian American Council, and analyst Anatol Lieven, argued that insisting Iran give up its right to any uranium enrichment is untenable, and instead suggested that the Western powers base their demands on the rights and limitations of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty — which would allow the international community “to place a verifiable cap on Iranian enrichment and other nuclear capabilities well short of weaponization.”

Dr. Etemad agrees that the NPT, which governs the peaceful pursuit of nuclear energy under the supervision of the U.N.’s International Atomic Energy Agency, holds the key. “The Americans, when they need the NPT, they talk about it; when they don’t need it, they throw it away. You don’t do that with an international treaty,” he said. Iran is a signatory to the NPT, on the basis of which it is being held accountable by the United Nations Security Council over transparency issues. But the NPT allows signatories the right to enrich uranium, under IAEA supervision, for peaceful purposes. The U.S. and its allies fear that even building a peaceful enrichment capability would allow Iran to covertly produce weapons-grade materiel, and have argued that Tehran’s violations of transparency and disclosure requirements of the NPT should mean it has forfeited its right to enrich uranium. But that argument has so far not been embraced by the U.N. or the IAEA, which reports there is “no evidence that Iran was working actively to build nuclear weapons.”

Even though Iran’s known uranium enrichment activities occur under the scrutiny of IAEA inspectors, the U.S. and its European allies and Israel suspect Iran of pursuing nuclear weapons capability. The charge infuriates Dr. Etemad. “With the Shah, we also came to the conclusion that Iran was in great need of nuclear energy because our population was steadily growing and our gas and oil will run out. That’s why even though I was in the old regime, I should be fair to the new regime because they are following the same line. To speak frankly, with its bellicose behavior the West is pushing Iran towards nuclear weapons, even if they don’t want them now.”

The latest proposal from the Western powers hoped to break the deadlock by retreating from its demand that Iran shut down its enrichment activities as a precondition for talks. Instead, the new proposal suggests that Iran simply refrain from expanding its current enrichment program for six weeks, during which time the U.N. Security Council would refrain from imposing new sanctions. And in that “freeze-for-freeze” interim, the two sides would negotiate a more comprehensive deal. But there’s no sign thus far that Tehran is prepared to accept even that proposal.

“The Europeans say stop enrichment and we’ll talk, but the Iranians already did that and nothing happened,” said Dr. Etemad. “At the time of the Shah, we signed contracts with both France and Germany and even then they didn’t deliver. If I were in the current regime, I wouldn’t trust the West. They don’t even give Iran civilian airplane parts, which is costing hundreds of lives; why should they believe that they will give them enriched uranium?” If that’s the position of a liberal critic of the regime, it’s likely that the stance of the current Iranian leadership on the nuclear issue enjoys widespread support among Iranians.

To be sure, many Iranians also fear the consequences of continued defiance. “What if this hard line means war?” asked daytime-mechanic, nighttime-taxi driver Bahram, 24, in Tehran recently, echoing concerns heard from a number of ordinary Iranians.

“For years now, they are threatening us with an attack,” Dr. Etemad said, adding, “This is humiliating. We are not ants,” referring to an Esquire interview with Admiral William Fallon about Iran back in March, in which he is reported to have said, “These guys are ants. When the time comes, you crush them.”

“If you’re weak, they attack you,” says the scientist. “If you’re not weak, they won’t attack you. We have to be a strong country and end these humiliating threats. And being strong means not listening to the foreigners.”

Please note: These stories are located outside of Prophecy Today’s website. Prophecy Today is not responsible for their content and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed therein. These articles are provided for your information.

08/06/08

* Syria confirms assassination of top military officer last week Syria’s government confirmed the assassination of a senior military officer last week believed to have been a close aide to President Bashar Assad.

* Troops stage coup in Mauritania Troops in Mauritania have overthrown the government and say they have formed a state council to rule the country.

* US threatens to punish Iranian ‘delay’ Israel expects that a fourth round of UN sanctions against Iran likely won’t be in place until the beginning of 2009.

* Mofaz: Iran is the root of all evil, threat to world peace Transportation Minister Shaul Mofaz, a contender to succeed Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, denounced his native Iran on Wednesday as “the root of all evil.”

* Hamas warns of uprising in W. Bank A senior Gaza Hamas official warned Tuesday that his Islamic terrorist group could overrun the West Bank, just as it took over Gaza, if provoked by its rivals in Fatah.

* Why Iran Won’t Budge on Nukes When U.S. officials appeal to the Iranian people over the heads of its regime, they like to assume that Tehran’s defiance on the nuclear issue reflects only the extremist position.

* Security Cabinet to mull ‘new Lebanon reality’ The Security Cabinet is expected to discuss on Wednesday the ramifications of a Lebanese cabinet policy statement giving Hizbullah the right of “resistance” to “liberate Lebanese territories.”

* Can our TV signals be picked up on other planets? A television company has joined forces with a social networking site to send a message to the nearest theoretically inhabitable planet.

* UK minister: Keep settlers out of official events British Foreign Office minister Kim Howells has vowed to ensure that settlers will not be invited to future events hosted by the British embassy in Israel.

* Iraqi Army willing, but not ready, to fight alone Ahmed Mahmoud, a lieutenant in the Iraqi Army, lost one leg fighting the insurgency and says he would not quit his job even if he lost the other.

New Sect Joins Volatile Palestinian Political Brew

By: Mel Frykberg – Middle East Times

RAMALLAH, West Bank — On Saturday as Palestinians tried to digest the latest violence and political upheaval between rival Palestinian factions Hamas and Fatah, which has left nearly a dozen Palestinians dead in Gaza and over 100 injured including women and children, a shadowy Islamic organization has crept into the political equation, creating the possibility of a new reality on the ground both in Gaza and the West Bank.

As this reporter was traveling from Birzeit to Ramallah, in the central West Bank, we were held up behind a long line of taxis and motorcars at a Palestinian checkpoint at the outskirts of Ramallah.

Members and supporters of Hizb ut-Tahrir, which seeks Islamic rule in the Muslim world but is ideologically opposed to Hamas, participate in a demonstration in Gaza City on July 31 calling for the return of the Islamic Caliphate. Members were rounded up in the West Bank for attempting to hold rallies there. (MaanImages via Newscom)

Similar checkpoints were erected throughout the territory as Palestinian police and security personnel checked identity cards, searched passengers and arrested dozens of Hizb ut-Tahrir, or Liberation Party, supporters.

According to a Hizb ut-Tahrir spokesperson, 77 party members were in detention as of Saturday including 41 in Tulkarm, 17 in Jenin, 9 in Ramallah and 10 in Bethlehem.

The supporters were trying to reach rallies, commemorating the anniversary of the downfall of the Turkish Ottoman Empire, which they regard as the successor of the Abbasid dynasty, one of the dynasties of the Islamic Caliphacy.

The Islamic Caliphacy followed the death of Prophet Muhammad and lasted from the early 600s AD to the early 20th century. The Caliphacy stretched from northern Africa and western Europe through to Asia and was a golden era during the spread of Islam when the arts, culture, science, medicine, trade and religious tolerance flourished.

The Ottoman Turks claimed the Caliphacy after the fall of the Abbasid Caliphate in 1284, but secularist and founding father of modern-day Turkey, Kemal Attaturk abolished this in 1924.

Hizb ut-Tahrir members say they applied to the respective Palestinian Authority (PA) governorate offices for permission to hold their events, and report receiving no response within the specified time period. They took this lack of refusal as an indication to go ahead and organize the commemorative rallies and conferences.

The rallies were to be held in Ramallah, and in Tulkarm, in the northern West Bank. As the Middle East Times approached Ramallah center, security forces were clearing up the remnants of demonstrators who had managed to slip through the security cordons encircling the city. The tension in the air was palpable.

Several demonstrators who had managed to unfurl black flags were quickly dragged away by Palestinian police.

Earlier in the week PA security forces had similarly prevented Hizb ut-Tahrir from holding rallies in Jenin and Bethlehem. The security forces also prevented a women’s event called by Hizb ut-Tahrir in Hebron on Wednesday.

Conversely, despite the group being ideologically opposed to Hamas and more in line with Islamic Jihad, the group managed to successfully hold its first rally in Gaza on Thursday, with over 3,000 people taking to the streets and marching.

Hizb ut-Tahrir was established in 1952, in then Jordanian-controlled Jerusalem, by Sharia court judge Taqi al-Din al Nabhani, from the village of Ijzim, near Haifa.

The organization’s goal is to reestablish an Islamic Caliphate to govern the whole Muslim world under Islamic law and to eventually bring the rest of the world under Islamic rule through peaceful means.

The group specifically advocates against violence, does not have an armed wing and neither does it stand in elections. Rather, Hizb ut-Tahrir seeks to agitate and educate, gaining supporters for the idea of restoring the Caliphate.

Since its establishment, Hizb ut-Tahrir has grown internationally and is now active in 45 countries. It is particularly active in Muslim countries such as Indonesia and Uzbekistan, while having made significant inroads into Pakistani community in the United Kingdom.

The organization is banned in several countries, including Russia, Germany and some Arab states. While the group’s activities are outlawed in the West Bank, in the Gaza Strip it is tolerated and allowed to hold demonstrations.

It is premature to ascertain exactly how Hizb ut-Tahrir will impact on the Palestinian political scene in the long run, and how popular it will become.

But as the chasm between Hamas and Fatah appears to widen, the fact that the politically intolerant de-facto rulers in Gaza tolerate the movement, while the equally undemocratic Fatah leadership in the West Bank violently opposes the organization, can only mean it will further rub salt into the wound of the debacle that currently fronts for the divided leadership in the Palestinian territories.

Please note: These stories are located outside of Prophecy Today’s website. Prophecy Today is not responsible for their content and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed therein. These articles are provided for your information.

Israel’s Islamic Movement: Filling the vacuum, aiming for a caliphate

By: Brenda Gazzar – The Jerusalem Post

It wasn’t just sermons and prayers that filled the gender-segregated soccer field in Kafr Kara on Friday night during the annual summit of the southern branch of the Islamic Movement in Israel.

Sheikh Raed Salah, the leader...

Sheikh Raed Salah, the leader of the Islamic movement’s northern branch.
Photo: Ariel Jerozolimski

Thousands of devotees gathered from around the country to commemorate Muhammad’s journey to “the farthest mosque” and his ascension to the heavens on a winged steed, but politics also hung heavily in the air.

Children waved green Islamic flags, young women in hijabs sold large maps of “Palestine before the Nakba,” the “catastrophe” of 1948, and sheikhs and politicians spoke of the need to support their Palestinian brothers in the territories, defend the Aksa Mosque and fight for equal rights as Arab citizens of Israel.

In a passionate speech, Sheikh Abdullah Nimr Darwish, the founder of Israel’s Islamic Movement, said Palestinians in the territories “have the right” to choose for themselves via elections between the path of “resistance,” represented by Hamas, and that of “negotiations,” represented by Fatah.

“The solution to the [Hamas-Fatah] split is to have elections now, and the people will decide whether to elect Abu Mazen [Palestinian Authority President and Fatah Chairman Mahmoud Abbas] or Hamas,” he told The Jerusalem Post afterward. “They should be responsible for their own decisions.”

In addition to political activism, both the southern and the more radical northern branch of the Islamic Movement are working hard in the social welfare sphere to occupy every vacuum that the government has failed to fill.

“This is the way they work, from [providing] medical services to religious services to even soccer teams,” said Prof. Yitzhak Reiter from the Department of Islamic and Middle Eastern Studies at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. “If the government doesn’t give enough money for sports activities or sports facilities, they will construct them by donations and provide the services. By so doing, they will attract particularly the poor – those that don’t have enough money to pay.”

In Umm el-Fahm, the northern branch of the Islamic Movement is helping to build the city’s first hospital – a mammoth five-story structure – to serve the surrounding Wadi Ara area.

At present, the nearest hospitals for Umm el-Fahm’s residents – numbering about 45,000 people – are about 25 minutes away in Afula or Hadera.

“If the government doesn’t build a hospital here, there is a vacuum,” said Yousef Jabareen, an Umm el-Fahm resident and director of the Nazareth-based Dirasat: The Arab Center for Law and Policy. “This allows the Islamic Movement to come here and build hospitals, take the credit, provide the service and connect to the people.”

The Islamic Movement also runs a 24-hour medical clinic that offers ambulance, urgent care and emergency services and is helping to build a new shopping center.

In 1996, the Islamic Movement in Israel split into two factions, the southern branch headed by Darwish of Kafr Kassem, and the more radical northern branch, led by Sheikh Raed Salah of Umm el-Fahm.

The northern faction tends not to recognize the state as a Jewish one and opposes voting or running for Knesset elections for ideological reasons but participates in local elections, Reiter said.

The southern faction, which includes MK Ibrahim Sarsour (United Arab List-Ta’al), participates in both national and local politics to help achieve its aims.

Since 1988, the northern branch has dominated the Umm el-Fahm city council. Zaki Igbaria, the deputy mayor of Umm el-Fahm, believes it is because of the programs and services it has provided, ranging from drug rehabilitation to raising money for underpaid teachers.

“The Islamic Movement gathered money here to pay for teachers and to clean the streets, and people started trusting them,” Igbaria said recently from his office in Umm el-Fahm. “The main goal of the Islamic Movement is to bring people to the best situation here, in education, in ethics….”

Despite the high volume of activity in some areas, Reiter believes that support for the movement – which he estimates at around 20 percent among Muslims – has not changed significantly in the last decade.

One reason, Reiter said, was because of political competition. There are other strong Arab political parties, such as the Balad Party, formerly led by then-MK Azmi Bishara, “which are not less moderate,” and “they are struggling in the same political field as the Islamic Movement.”

In addition, while Israel has a unique democratic system that gives ethnic preference to Jews in certain laws and institutions, Arabs in Israel enjoy better welfare services, a strong economy and more political and other freedoms than Arabs in Arab countries such Egypt, where the Muslim Brotherhood was a powerful player, he said.

“They still know their situation is better than elsewhere in the Arab world,” Reiter said.

But over the years, some in the northern branch have pushed the limits of what is legally allowed – for example by donating money to families of Palestinian suicide bombers or attackers – until such acts were outlawed by the state.

“Where the Israeli government is neglecting or failing to set lines and limits, they go in and do whatever they can in support of their ideology until someone wakes up and says, ‘We have to show them the limits of laws,'” Reiter said.

But Igbaria insists they are realistic and that despite their ultimate goal of having a Caliphate, or a united Islamic state that would include Israel, will continue to pursue only legal and peaceful means.

“It is not a secret. We believe that the Islamic state will be the best solution for the world, but actually we live here and we are working according to the laws of the state,” he said.

Please note: These stories are located outside of Prophecy Today’s website. Prophecy Today is not responsible for their content and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed therein. These articles are provided for your information.

Who Will Be Israel’s Next Leader?

By: Robert Maginnis – Human Events

Last week, corruption-plagued Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert announced that he would step down in two months — as soon as his Kadima party elects his successor in the primaries slated for September 17th. Who replaces Olmert and his successor’s ability to hold the coalition government together are important because political instability in Israel could impact regional security.

US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has described the resignation of Olmert as an “internal Israeli matter.” But the outcome of the election should matter to America because Israel’s interests are intertwined with our regional interests. That’s why America should favor the candidate who shares our regional goal — a just and lasting stability — and will partner with the US to address key challenges that protect our vital interests.

Recently, Secretary Rice outlined Mideast challenges in the magazine Foreign Affairs that must be addressed to protect American vital interests. Those interests, according to Rice, are energy security, nonproliferation, the defense of friends and allies, the resolution of old conflicts, and finding partners in the global struggle against violent Islamist extremism.

Our Mideast interests are at risk for many reasons, not just because Israel, America’s Mideast partner, faces political instability. Israel has ongoing security talks with Syrian and Palestinian leaders which could stall due to political uncertainties. Bashar Ja’afari, Syria’s ambassador to the United Nations, said Olmert’s resignation could have an effect on the negotiations, and Mahmoud Abbas, president of the Palestinian Authority, was skeptical about the talks continuing. “We have not, up to now, settled any” of the six questions key to a final peace accord, Abbas said. There is also concern that a vacuum at Israel’s helm might embolden Iran to use terrorist proxies Hamas and Hizbullah to exploit Jerusalem’s vulnerabilities while advancing its atomic program.

Replacing Olmert could become a protracted process and not assured for Kadima. Israeli foreign minister Tzipi Livni has a clear edge in the Kadima party race to replace Olmert, but officials question her ability to form a coalition and become prime minister which creates an opportunity for her opposition.

Opposition Likud party leader Benjamin Netanyahu is on the attack. “This government has reached an end and it doesn’t matter who heads Kadima. They are all partners in this government’s total failure,” Netanyahu said. He understands that if Olmert’s replacement is unable to form a coalition, Israel must host a general election by March 2009 which according to opinion polls would favor Netanyahu.

Consider how the leading Israeli candidates — Livni and Netanyahu — stack-up to Rice’s three challenges.

First, America needs regional allies who are willing to take action against violent Islamist extremism.

Netanyahu shares Rice’s views about the terror threat. In 1995, Netanyahu wrote the book Fighting Terrorism: How Democracies Can Defeat Domestic and International Terrorism. He explains in the book that “[i]f the West doesn’t wake up to the suicidal nature of militant Islam, the next thing you will see is militant Islam bringing down the World Trade Center.”

Both candidates have negotiated with terrorists even though they are on the record as opposing terrorism, which suggests neither may work towards America’s interests. In 1996, then-prime minister Netanyahu oversaw a lopsided prisoner exchange with Hizbullah. Netanyahu granted freedom to 45 Shiite Muslims and returned 100 Hizbullah bodies in exchange for the remains of two Israeli soldiers. Last month, foreign minister Livni voted with Olmert to approve a massive trade of terrorists for dead Israeli soldiers with Hizbullah. The deal was far more lopsided than the one Netanyahu made 12 years earlier. It included the release of six murderers from prison, the bodies of 200 terrorists, and a promise not to keep terrorists’ bodies as bargaining cards for future swaps.

Second, America needs help stopping states that use violence for destructive ends. Rice specifically mentioned Syria’s undermining of Lebanon’s sovereignty, Iran’s pursuit of a nuclear capability and both states’ support for terrorism. Livni is tainted by association with Olmert’s record while Netanyahu has been consistently stalwart on the issue.

Foreign minister Livni has consistently condemned Islamic extremists like Hamas that destabilize the region. But Livni, part of Olmert’s government, participated in its deliberations during the disastrous 2006 war with Hizbullah in Lebanon, which many Israelis regard as the worst-run war in Israel’s history. It was a time of uncharacteristic indecisiveness.

In 2006, Olmert bungled the 34-day war with Hizbullah which the terror group claimed victory by virtue of its survival. After the fighting, an Olmert government-appointed commission identified a long series of failures but declined to blame anyone. In February 2008, Livni, Olmert’s deputy, accepted blame for the commission’s “harsh” findings when she said to fellow ministers “We need to continue together — that is the meaning of taking responsibility.”

Regarding Syria, this spring, Olmert’s government secretly began peace talks with Damascus which are focused on moving that government out of Iran’s orbit and stopping its support of Hizbullah and Hamas. It’s reported that in exchange Olmert offered to surrender the Golan Heights and turn a blind eye to Syrian forces returning to Lebanon, which they left in 2004.

Livni may be weak on Iran. Last year, according to Haaretz magazine, Livni said “Iranian nuclear weapons do not pose an existential threat to Israel.” She even criticized Olmert for exaggerating the “issue of the Iranian bomb.”

Netanyahu is diametrically opposed to Livni’s words and her government’s actions. He sees Iran as the major problem facing Israel. “It’s 1938,” he told CNN, “and Iran is Germany.” Netanyahu said that “…where that [Nazi] regime embarked on a global conflict before it developed nuclear weapons this regime [Iran] is developing nuclear weapons before it embarks on a global conflict.” He says the rulers in Tehran are “…a religious messianic cult that believes in the Apocalypse, and they believe they have to expedite the Apocalypse to bring the collapse of the west.”

While Livni’s government has been negotiating with Syria, Netanyahu has been opposed. He indicated that should Olmert’s government sign a deal with Damascus, it will be rejected by the Knesset and most of the Israeli public. Additionally, Likud chairman Gideon Sa’ar said his party would not be obligated by any peace agreement reached between Olmert and Syria if Netanyahu wins the prime minister’s office.

Further, Netanyahu explained that Syria was “an inseparable part of the axis of evil” that would not disconnect from Iran. He warned that conceding the Golan Heights, which is part of Olmert’s deal with Damascus, would allow Iran to use it as a command post to endanger Israel. “The Golan must remain in Israel’s hands…I am quite amazed that the prime minister promises to hand over all of the Golan Heights even before negotiations begin,” said Netanyahu.

Third, America wants to find a way to resolve the long-standing Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Rice says that a Palestinian state must be created that can live side by side with Israel in peace and security. She explains that this state will be born through building effective democratic institutions that can fight terrorism and extremism.

Livni is Israel’s lead negotiator with the Palestinians. She favors giving land – Judea and Samaria settlement areas – as part of Israel’s peace deal but Jerusalem will be kept under Israeli control. Her party supports the achievement of two states carried out in stages such as dismantling terror organizations and collecting firearms with the end product a demilitarized Palestinian state devoid of terror.

By contrast Netanyahu’s Likud party opposes the unilateral Palestinian declaration of statehood. The settlements are “the realization of Zionist values” and “will continue to strengthen and develop these communities and will prevent their uprooting.” It “flatly rejects the establishment of a Palestinian Arab state west of the Jordan river.” It “flatly rejects Palestinian proposals to divide Jerusalem.”

Netanyahu is a sober, hard-nosed realist who has consistently opposed the current peace talks with the Palestinians and insists on retaining Jewish settlements all over Judea and Samaria — a position that is simply not compatible with creating a viable Palestinian state and is in conflict with stated US objectives for the region.

The former prime minister has also been consistent on the Palestinian issue since he first entered public life in the early 1980s. He believes that the economic sphere is one where we can make quick, tangible progress, create more jobs and generate growth which will yield political payoffs that will benefit negotiations.

Apparently, neither Livni nor Netanyahu totally satisfy Rice’s three challenges, which is to be expected because Israel has its own national interests that don’t always align with US interests. However, when Israel selects its leader, the US will have to quickly bridge any differences so the partnership can move ahead to protect our mutual interests.

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08/05/08

* More talks with Syria, despite political turmoil After wrapping up his visit to Tehran, Syrian President Bashar Assad will touch down in Ankara on Tuesday for a meeting with Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

* Last Ethiopian airlift lands in Israel The era of large-scale Ethiopian aliya is over, the Jewish Agency for Israel said.

* Iran escalates military rhetoric Iran warned Monday that it could easily close a critical Gulf waterway to oil shipments.

* Lebanese government: Hizbullah can keep arms The Lebanese unity government unanimously approved the draft of its future policy statement, voting in favor of allowing Hizbullah to retain its weapons.

* Iran ambiguous on nuclear offer Iran has sent a message to EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana, but not a response to the latest proposals on its nuclear program.

* Libya says Mediterranean Union will divide Africa Libya’s leader Muammar Gaddafi has reaffirmed his critical stance towards the Union for the Mediterranean.

* Kurd president says Iraq vote bill a ‘conspiracy’ The president of Iraq’s autonomous Kurdish region Massud Barzani has sharply criticised a provincial election bill as a “conspiracy.”

* ‘Murdered Syrian officer knew too much’ Amid increasing speculation, some Arab media and Syrian dissidents suggested Monday that the reported assassination of a senior Syrian intelligence officer over the weekend may be a case of one man knowing too much.

* Oil price falls further to $118 Oil prices touched three-month lows of $118 a barrel on Tuesday amid signs of rising supplies and slowing demand.

* Russia warns Georgia over breakaway region Russia said on Tuesday it would not be indifferent if violence escalated further in Georgia’s breakaway region of South Ossetia.