* Russia signs up to Georgia truce Russia has followed Georgia in signing a French-brokered peace plan for ending their nine-day-old conflict.

* Egypt: Iran owes West transparency Iran should not present the Western nations justification for war on “a silver platter” in the conflict over its nuclear program the way Saddam Hussein of Iraq did.

* Musharraf ‘running out of time’ Pakistan’s foreign minister has said President Pervez Musharraf must stand down in the next two days or face impeachment proceedings.

* IN DEPTH / The Russian empire strikes back Exactly 40 years ago, on a hot August day in 1968, Alexander Dubcek stood looking out his office window as thousands of Soviet soldiers poured into his city, Prague.

* ‘We are running out of time for a 2-state solution’ At the end of my conversation with Sari Nusseibeh at the American Colony Hotel in Jerusalem, he told me he wouldn’t be surprised if one of the Palestinian residents of the city ran for mayor in the municipal elections.

* Ahmadinejad Sticks to Guns in U.S. ally Turkey No progress was made on the Iranian nuclear standoff with the West during the controversial visit of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to Turkey.

* Sadr asks for a blood pledge of loyalty Moktada al-Sadr, the Iraqi Shiite cleric, on Friday called on his followers to sign in blood a pledge of loyalty.

* Jordan restores relations with Hamas The Hamas movement on Friday released a statement welcoming the restoration of its ties with Jordan.

* Head of World Congress of Russian Jewry accuses Georgia of genocide Russian-speaking Israeli figures have expressed dismay at a statement made by the chairman of the World Congress of Russian Jewry.

* US and Poland ink missile deal, rattling Russia The US and Poland have agreed to put part of a US global missile shield and new anti-aircraft defences on Polish soil.

By: Middle East Times

The short, sharp lesson that Russian tanks handed to the Georgians this week will have serious consequences in the Middle East.

First, it means that the Russians are back as pivotal players in the region, with the political will and the military capability to play once more in the game of nations south of the Caucasus mountain chain. That in turn means that Azerbaijan and Armenia, as well as Georgia, are at immediate risk of becoming client states.

It also means that Turkey and Iran will have to factor the Kremlin back into all their diplomatic calculations as a regional great power with vital interests, just as they did before the collapse of the Soviet Union. And the former Soviet republics of Central Asia would be advised to take the fate of Georgia as a warning to those who think the Kremlin can be defied with impunity.

Second, it means that Russia is once more within striking distance of controlling all the export routes for the oil and gas of the Caspian basin. That was the monopoly (that at times felt more like a stranglehold) that the Georgia-Turkey pipeline, carrying Azerbaijani oil from Baku to Ceyhan in Turkey, was intended to break.

The ability of the Georgians to protect and secure that pipeline is now clearly in question, and proposals to extend and increase the capacity of the pipeline will now have to be reconsidered.

This in turn increases Russia’s importance, already huge, in the world’s energy markets, and thus in the eyes of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Russia has already floated the idea of an OPEC-type organization for natural gas exporters, and consumer countries will now be watching nervously for any sign of agreement between Russia and OPEC to limit supplies in order to keep prices high.

Third, the prestige and authority of the United States, already battered by misadventures in Iraq and its inability to dissuade Iran from its nuclear ambitions, have taken another blow in the region. The United States is unable to protect one of its close allies. Georgia is a country with some 2,000 troops deployed alongside the American forces in Iraq and U.S. military advisers have been training the Georgian army for four years now.

The question therefore asks itself; what exactly is the point of taking risks to be an ally of the Americans if it brings no protection?

Fourth, the return of Russia portends a shift in the balance of political forces in the Middle East that for the moment at least appears to weaken the American and pro-Western side of the balance and to strengthen the Iranian side.

Russia is a major arms supplier to Iran, is completing its new nuclear reactor and power station at Bushehr and is ensuring the U.N. sanctions are not too burdensome.

We have yet to see how this unfolds elsewhere in the Middle East, but few in the region will leave the Russians out of their calculations any more.

* Rice to push Georgia-Russia deal US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has arrived in Tbilisi for talks with Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili.

* Hezbollah ‘Five-times’ Stronger Than It Was in Israeli War In terms of weaponry, strategic and political positioning, and its ever-expanding international reach, Hezbollah is “five times more capable today,” than it was at the beginning of the July 2006 war with Israel.

* Russia angry at US missile deal Russian officials have voiced alarm at a preliminary deal that would allow the US to site missiles in Poland.

* Nasrallah: Georgia lost because of Israel In a speech marking the two-year anniversary of the Second Lebanon War, Hizbullah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah mocked Israel’s political and military leadership.

* U.S.: Hezbollah training Iraqi militants in Iran Iraqi Shiite explosive and assassination teams are being trained in at least four locations in Iran by Tehran’s elite Quds force and Lebanese Hezbollah.

* Russia Rejoins the Game of Nations The short, sharp lesson that Russian tanks handed to the Georgians this week will have serious consequences in the Middle East.

* New PRC rocket ‘can reach Ashdod’ The Popular Resistance Committees (PRC) in the Gaza Strip have announced that they are in possession of “Nasser-4” rockets that have a range of 25 kilometers and pose a threat to Ashdod.

* Ahmadinejad says hopes for Turkey energy deals soon Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said on Friday he hoped his country and Turkey would soon sign energy deals opposed by Washington.

* ‘War led Israel to negotiate with Syria’ Hizbullah leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah on Thursday claimed that “Israel’s failure in the Second Lebanon War led it to change its policy.

* Musharraf resignation deal denied A spokesman for President Musharraf of Pakistan has firmly denied newspaper reports that the former general has already agreed to step down.

* Russians begin Georgia handover Russian troops have begun handing over control of the area around the town of Gori to Georgian security forces.

* Israel fears war could hurt Iran effort Russia’s war with Georgia and the infuriated reaction in the West to what US President George W. Bush calls Moscow’s “disproportionate response” could make it harder to enlist Russian help.

* Lebanon-Syria to demarcate border Lebanon and Syria have agreed to resume work on formally demarcating their common border as part of efforts to repair years of strained relations.

* Iran’s Ahmadinejad meets Gul in Turkey Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad met with his Turkish counterpart Thursday in a demonstration of the improved ties between the Islamic Republic and the NATO ally.

* EU wants peacekeepers ‘on the ground’ in Georgia EU foreign ministers on Wednesday (13 August) agreed to send peacekeepers to help supervise the fragile Russia-Georgia ceasefire.

* Jordan bars Jews with religious items Jordanian border officials refused to allow a group of Israeli tourists carrying religious objects such as talitot and tefillin to enter their country.

* Terrorists Building 16-Mile Range Rockets During Ceasefire Gaza terrorists are building a 25-kilometer (16.8 mile) range rocket, dubbed Nasser-3.

* Hezbollah TV broadcasting to China, Australia via Indonesia satellite The U.S. government is concerned that a television channel backed by the Hezbollah militant group is using an Indonesian satellite.

* Future wars ‘to be fought with mind drugs’ Landmines releasing brain-altering chemicals, scanners reading soldiers’ minds and devices boosting eyesight and hearing could all one figure in arsenals.

* Jewish leaders meet with Hugo Chavez President Hugo Chavez met with Jewish leaders on Wednesday, pledging to work together against anti-Semitism.

By: Ariel Cohen – Middle East Times

Turkey’s Constitutional Court on July 30 averted a potentially explosive political crisis when its judges rejected an attempt by the State Prosecutor to ban the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP). The ban would have prohibited 71 senior members of the AKP from taking part in politics for five years and would have effectively brought down the government. AKP leader and Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and Turkey’s President Abdullah Gül were among the AKP leadership facing exclusion from political life. The ban, if enacted, also would have negated the will of 47 percent of Turkish voters who supported the party and would have dashed the country’s hopes of entering the European Union.

The political crisis that has been resolved, at least for now, but the Constitutional Court’s measured decision is just the tip of the iceberg. It would be an easy task for the court if the prosecution had presented clear evidence of a conspiracy to seize power, ties with foreign governments, or assassination plots.

The case, however, is more complicated. On the one hand, Turkey’s secular elites say the AKP has an agenda of creeping Islamization; while the AKP and supporters of democracy are worried about what steps Turkey’s elite, including the top-level bureaucracy and the military – the guardian of Atatürk’s secular revolution – may take to prevent what it sees as the realization of such an agenda. One does not have to look further back to than 1997 when the Turkish military took decisive action to guard secularism.

It is worth noting that Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and a majority of the leaders of the AKP once belonged to Islamist Refah (Welfare) Party, which the military removed together with its leader, Prime Minister Necmettin Erbakan. Thus, the question remains over whether the hijab constitutional amendment and various other measures the AKP has taken constitute a “secret agenda.”

Despite these concerns, Erdogan’s party is enjoying broad popular support, while secular parties remain moribund. The AKP came to power in 2002 and won 2007 parliamentary elections with 47 percent of the vote, receiving 341 seats in the 550-member legislature. Its electoral success has been the result of Erdogan’s great political skill with the low middle classes and migrants from the Anatolian (hinterland) who moved to the big cities. Pro-EU and liberal market policies help the AKP among the entrepreneurs.

Washington is facing difficult choices vis-à-vis its friend, Turkey. On the one hand, the United States supports democracy worldwide, and in the Middle East in particular. A ban on the AKP would be a setback to such a policy. Yet, a prolonged rule by the AKP may transform the U.S. ally into an Islamic republic increasingly hostile to the United States and its allies.

Turkey’s recent crisis has thrown into stark relief some of the nation’s underlying economic, political, and cultural tensions. The March 2008 indictment against the AKP prompted a political crisis that has led to economic uncertainties. The Turkish stock market has been down 20 percent this year and foreign direct investment has been only $6 billion, a dramatic decrease from $20 billion in 2007.

Additional instability was fueled by an investigation into the Ergenekon gang, a secular, shadowy organization led by a number of former generals who have plotted political murders and attacks as part of its ultimate aim to overthrow the government.

Washington should applaud the court’s balanced decision, which upholds the rule of law. The United States should continue to encourage Turkey’s Western orientation, economic reform, civil rights, and aspirations to join Europe. Also, the U.S. should emphasize its desire to maintain robust bilateral relations with Turkey, including in the security area. The United States should continue the dialogue with Turkey on fighting terrorism, on Iraq, on the Iranian challenge, Afghanistan, and resurgent Russia. Washington should also expand energy and trade cooperation with Ankara.

We are witnessing a battle for the heart and soul of the country, for its future. The Turkish Constitutional Court will remain the last resort against anti-constitutional activities by Islamist parties.

The battle between the AKP and the secular forces is essentially both political and religious. Ultimately, secular forces need to be better politically organized when bringing their case to the court of public opinion and win over hearts and minds.

Without electoral victories by secularists at the ballot, the status quo, in which secularists are losing power, may continue.

Prolonged rule by AKP may translate into a creeping long-term re-Islamization of Turkish society and political system. The outcome of such a transformation may be an Islamic republic that could become hostile to the United States and its allies and a Turkish society that would lose its current political and economic gains.

The United States is Turkey’s friend, and friends do not allow friends to commit political suicide. Turkey is and should remain a key NATO ally for the United States.

By: Isabella Ginor and Gideon Remez – The Jerusalem Post

As we write, reports are coming in that after a bombardment by Russia’s aircraft, its tanks are advancing on the Georgian town of Gori – the birthplace of Iosif Djugashvili, better known as Stalin.

This throwback to the heyday of the Soviet Union is more than symbolic. Historical analogies are never perfect, but our sense of déjà vu was acute as we watched Moscow’s Soviet-style move to reassert its domination of the USSR’s former fief.

Moscow perceives a threat to its strategic interests from a small regional actor. It prods its neighboring clients to commit such provocations that the adversary is drawn into military action that “legitimizes” a massive, direct intervention to “defend the victims of aggression.”

In our recent study Foxbats over Dimona: The Soviets’ Nuclear Gamble in the Six-Day War, we demonstrated that this was the scenario employed by the USSR to instigate the 1967 conflict. Then, it was the unexpectedly devastating effect of Israel’s preemptive strike that thwarted the planned Soviet intervention. Against Georgia this week, the ploy has so far worked much better.

As in our Middle Eastern precedent, a major motive for Moscow’s move was to prevent its encirclement by nuclear-armed Western pacts. When the United States announced its intent to deploy missile defenses in the new NATO members Poland and the Czech Republic, Russia declared this to be a measure that would be met with a military response. Its alarm grew when President George W. Bush visited Ukraine and Georgia, inviting them, too, into NATO. But at the pact’s summit in Bucharest in April, when the European allies demurred, Russia saw its chance – and pounced.

Georgia has assiduously courted US protection, if not a full NATO guarantee. It sent 2,000 soldiers to Iraq, who are being recalled to face the Russian invasion. Washington has provided Georgia with materiel and advisers, and so did Israel – at least until Russia pressed it to stop, reportedly in return for promises to withhold advanced weapons from Syria.

The South Ossetia separatists are already claiming US intervention – saying there are black people among the Georgian casualties. But even if some American personnel went discreetly into action, that would not suffice to deter Russia from bringing Georgia to heel, if not physically occupying the country. And then the Western loss will not be limited to the independence of a small, remote, struggling democracy.

Russia would achieve another strategic goal: regaining control of the vital flow of Caspian Sea oil to Western (and Israeli) consumers via pipelines that pass through Georgia to its own ports – now already blockaded by the Russian navy – and to Turkey’s.

But Moscow’s apparent disregard for the hitherto internationally sacrosanct borders and sovereignty of the 15 former Soviet Socialist Republics may have even farther-reaching consequences. Russia itself enjoyed immunity for its suppression of Chechnya’s independence bid, as the latter was only an autonomous component of the Russian Federation. By the same token, South Ossetia and Abkhazia (where Russian marines have landed to assist separatists in opening a second front) are integral parts of Georgia. In calling these often-arbitrary borders into question, Russia has opened a vast Pandora’s box.

Absent a resolute Western response, the next in line for Russian designs will be another would-be NATO candidate: Ukraine, which Moscow has already berated for backing Georgia. Ukraine’s eastern mining and industrial regions are heavily populated by Russian-speakers; the Crimea, whence Ukraine seeks to eject the Russian Black Sea Fleet’s main base, was part of Russia until the 1950s.

After “coming to the rescue of Russian citizens” in South Ossetia (locals who were issued Russian passports, or actual settlers from across the border), Moscow may demand the repatriation of its people from Ukraine – along with their land.

In respect to Israel, too, Russian leaders often proclaim a “special relationship” based on the “hundreds of thousands of Russian people” who reside here. This may still be far over the horizon – but you read it here first: Some day, a “representative delegation” of these “Russians” may invoke the Ossetian precedent to appeal for protection from Moscow. With a large part of the Russian fleet moved by then from Sevastopol, Crimea, to Tartus, Syria, such an intervention may be at least as feasible as in 1967.

* Russian convoy heads into Georgia, violating truce Russian troops and paramilitaries thrust deep into Georgia on Wednesday.

* PA: Reported peace offer unacceptable The Palestinian Authority said on Tuesday it would reject an Israeli peace proposal published in the Hebrew press a day earlier.

* Hizbullah lauded in Tehran; Kuntar gives speech via satellite Hundreds of Iranians arrived on Tuesday night at Palestine Square in central Tehran in order to celebrate the two-year anniversary of “Hizbullah’s victory”.

* Syria reportedly wary of IDF Golan drill “The Syrian leadership has undertaken emergency preventive and deterrent measures, fearing that Israel will turn the military exercise in the Golan Heights to an attack against Syria.”

* EU diplomats keen to avoid Russia controversy The French EU presidency is expected to endorse the Russia-Georgia ceasefire.

* Saudi nuclear plan gets green light The Saudi Arabian cabinet has decided to approve the country’s agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

* Lebanese city rocked by bus bomb Security officials said a bomb went off close to a bus whose passengers included a number of off-duty soldiers.

* Islamic group condemns plan to expand Western Wall prayer site An Islamic group on Tuesday condemned a long-time Israeli proposal to enlarge the section of the Western Wall allotted for women’s prayer.

* ‘Slow’ light to speed up the net A huge increase in the speed of the internet could be produced by slowing parts of it down.

* Analysis: What Russia gained and lost in ‘Little Victorious War’ Five days after the four-year-long skirmishes between separatist South Ossetian forces and the Georgian military blew up into a full-scale war.

By: BBC News

A serious oil supply crisis is looming, which could push prices above $200 a barrel, a think tank has warned.

Rising oil prices push up the cost
of other items such as petrol and plastics

A “supply crunch” will affect the world market within the next five to 10 years, the Chatham House report said.

While there is plenty of oil in the ground, companies and governments were failing to invest enough to ensure production, it added.

Only a collapse in demand can stave off the looming crisis, report author Professor Paul Stevens said.

“In reality, the only possibility of avoiding such a crunch appears to be if a major recession reduces demand – and even then such an outcome may only postpone the problem,” he said in The Coming Oil Supply Crunch.

Lack of funding

Prof Stevens warned that investment in new oil supplies has been inadequate as oil firms prefer to return profits to shareholders rather than reinvest it.

Furthermore, oil producing cartel Opec has failed to meet plans to expand its capacity since 2005.

He also argued that a “resurgence of resource nationalism” means that governments are “starving” their national oil companies of investment by excluding international oil firms from helping to develop capacity.

“While the forecast is controversial and extremely bullish, even allowing for some increase in capacity over the next few years, a supply crunch appears likely around 2013,” he added.

“The implication is that it will quickly translate into a price spike although there is a question over how strategic stocks might be used to alleviate this.”

Unpopular measures

However, Prof Stevens does conclude that only “extreme policy measures could achieve a speedy response” in boosting supplies and lowering oil prices – a move that is likely to be “politically unpopular”.

Other, longer-term moves suggested by the report include offering support to help oil-exporters to manage “resource curse” – where an abundance of natural resources can damage a country’s economy – and allowing Opec to join the International Energy Authority’s emergency sharing scheme.

The report comes just days after oil prices slipped from peaks near $150 a barrel.

By: Hillel Fendel – Arutz Sheva

The fast of Tisha B’Av, the “saddest” day in the Jewish calendar, begins on Saturday night as the Sabbath ends, and ends Sunday evening at sundown. Its name literally means “the ninth day of the Jewish month of Av,” the date of some of the gravest tragedies to have befallen the Jewish People. Most notably, both Holy Temples in Jerusalem were destroyed on Tisha B’Av, but the list of calamities includes also the following:

• G-d decreed, following the Sin of the Spies as recounted in Numbers 13-14, that the Children of Israel would not be allowed to enter the Land of Israel until the entire generation had died out.
• The fall of Beitar, the last fortress to hold out during the Bar Kochba revolt in the year 135 C.E., fell to the Romans, marking the last milestone in the beginning of our current Exile.
• A year later, the Temple area was plowed under.
• The Jews of Spain were expelled by King Ferdinand and Queen Isabella in 1492.
• World War I erupted in 1914.
• The Jews of Gush Katif spent their last legal day in their homes in 2005, and were expelled three days later.

“Secular Jews for the Temple”
The centerpiece of Tisha B’Av mourning is the destruction of the Holy Temple (Beit HaMikdash). Among the many groups that have sprouted over the past several years promoting awareness of the Beit HaMikdash is one named “Secular Jews for the Temple.” Ahuvyah Tabenkin of left-wing Kibbutz Ein Harod said, “It’s true that we don’t exactly represent a majority of secular Kibbutz members… but the pioneers have always been a minority: the Zionists were a minority among the Jews, those who came to the Land were a minority among the Zionists, those who worked the land were also a minority, and now we are a minority as well. But I hope that soon we will be the leaders.”

Tabenkin has nationalist, political and historical reasons why the Temple and the Temple Mount are important. Asked if he has religious considerations as well, Tabenkin told Arutz-7’s Ariel Kahane, “Well, the word ‘religious’ can be the subject of long discussions. Look, the Gerrer Rebbe once said, ‘When the Haskalah [Enlightenment] came to the world, with science, physics, etc., we [the religious] left it for the secular Jews; when Zionism came to the world, we gave that too to the secular; and now we have also left the Repentance Movement for the secular.’ Accordingly, it looks like we [the secular] will also have to build the Beit HaMikdash.”

Asked whether he calls for the actual construction of the Temple, he said, “There are many religious authorities, including Maimonides, who say that the Temple must be rebuilt, and so I think it should be done… As a first step, we must show that we control the Temple Mount… I call upon all of Israel to come to the Mount on [Tisha B’Av] and show that it belongs to the Jewish nation.”

Prominent rabbis permit the ascent to parts of the Temple Mount after certain Halakhic precautions have been taken.

Tisha B’Av Laws
The Sages enacted Yom Kippur-like restrictions on Tisha B’Av, including no eating, drinking, washing, or marital relations. Leather shoes are not worn, and even Torah study – a major source of Jewish joy – is restricted to topics connected with the Destruction of the Temples, Tisha B’Av, and the like.

Though the afternoon before Tisha B’Av is generally marked by mourning-like practices, this is not true this year, when the eve of Tisha B’av is on the Sabbath. The afternoon Third Meal is larger than usual, as it will be the last meal for over 24 hours, and the usual Sabbath songs are sung. However, one must not eat after sundown on Sabbath, even though the Sabbath has not yet ended.

When three stars have appeared, the “short Havdalah” is recited [“Blessed is He Who separates between Sabbath and weekdays”], and Tisha B’Av officially begins; leather shoes are removed and unlaundered weekday clothes are worn. The evening prayer service is followed by one of the Havdalah blessings, that of “light,” and Eichah (Book of Lamentations) is read aloud.

The other Havdalah blessings are recited on Sunday evening before eating; the blessing on spices is not recited at all this week. Those who feel they must eat on Tisha B’Av for health reasons should consult an Orthodox rabbi.

* Russia ‘ends Georgia operation’ Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has ordered an end to military operations against Georgia.

* ‘Syria and Hizbullah gaining strength’ Defense Minister Ehud Barak said on Tuesday that “it is not a coincidence that the IDF is holding intensive drills in the Golan Heights.”

* Israel ‘proposes West Bank deal’ Israel has offered a peace deal to the Palestinians which would annex 7.3% of the West Bank and keep the largest settlements.

* Iran builds new, smart submarine Iran’s military capabilities have “increased remarkably” after the construction of a new submarine.

* Jordan’s king in first Iraq visit King Abdullah of Jordan has become the first Arab head of state to visit Iraq since the US-led invasion to overthrow Saddam Hussein in 2003.

* Assad to discuss ME peace process in Russia Syrian President Bashar Assad is scheduled to visit Moscow next week.

* German ‘Nazi’ youth camp raided A youth camp run by a neo-Nazi group has been broken up by police near Rostock in northern Germany.

* Abbas rejects Olmert proposal Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas has rejected an Israeli peace proposal because it does not provide for a contiguous Palestinian state with Jerusalem as its capital.

* U.S. ship heads for Arctic to define territory A U.S. Coast Guard cutter will embark on an Arctic voyage this week to determine the extent of the continental shelf north of Alaska and map the ocean floor.

* Train to the Western Wall Jerusalem’s new light train may reach the Western Wall, according to a meeting held by the capital’s municipality.