By: Robert Maginnis – Human Events

Defeating jihadists in Afghanistan and preventing nuclear-armed Pakistan from falling into the hands of Islamic extremists may depend on whether President Obama can perform a miracle with either the Russians or Pakistanis.

And — gauged by the Russians’ apparent success in interrupting our logistical lines to the battlefield –Vladimir Putin has prohibited miracles in southwest Asia.

Pakistan appears to be imploding from an insurgency which threatens our supply routes into Afghanistan. There have been several damaging raids against American ground supply lines through Pakistan. One of the other routes on which we rely heavily is the Manas Air Base in Kyrgyzstan. Actually, thanks to Russian interference, the word “rely” in the preceding sentence should be replaced with “relied”: past tense.

During the presidential campaign, Obama committed to make the war in Afghanistan a top priority. Unfortunately, his emphasis on that war coincides with the deterioration of the situation in next door Pakistan, which coincidentally provides our lifeline to the land-locked war zone.

The vulnerability of our resupply routes through Pakistan, which jeopardizes our Afghanistan mission, makes finding alternative routes critical, but the options are few. Afghanistan can also be accessed from the west through Iran — an unlikely route for forces opposed to terrorism — or the north through Russia, the Caspian Sea and Moscow’s Central Asia allies: Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan.

But any resupply route through the north gives Moscow leverage over the Obama administration for a variety of geopolitical concessions. And granting significant concessions to the Russians so early in the Obama administration could make America the underdog in future American-Russian negotiations.

Unfortunately, the Afghan war is heating up, which makes America’s commanders anxious to increase our forces and creates the need for increased supplies. Thus the new commander-in-chief is being pressured to surge more troops now and simultaneously find a reliable alternative resupply route to sustain those forces even before he has announced his strategy to win the war.

Geographically, Pakistan provides the shortest resupply route to Afghanistan from the Indian Ocean. Currently, most of the supplies bound for the war zone are delivered to the port of Karachi, Pakistan and then trucked hundreds of miles through semi-hostile territory crossing at two points into Afghanistan. Those crossing points have become the focus of Taliban attacks.

Until recently, Pakistani insurgents have been confined to the border region. But Dennis Blair, the national intelligence director, told Congress that Pakistan is losing authority over its border areas and other areas were coming under the sway of Islamic radicalism. Fortunately, Pakistan’s military has a firm grip on most of the country but that, too, is changing. That’s why the U.S. is providing Pakistan with arms and training in hopes of blunting the insurgency before it destabilizes the entire country.

Unless Pakistan’s insurgency is contained, resupplying our troops using routes through that country will be a security nightmare. And Obama knows that expanding our ground war as promised will require even more bulk supplies like ammunition and petroleum that rely on ground transportation — mostly trucks threading their way through mountainous, insurgent plagued Pakistani roads.

Any supply route through the region would be vulnerable to local criminal elements and subject to sudden closure. The roads and railroads in Uzbekistan, for example, are reasonably good for a less developed country thanks to the former Soviet Union. But any deal to use these countries could be very expensive because of the long distances and the need for more engineer work, an army of logisticians and security forces.

Petraeus and other American officials have visited the Central Asian republics in their attempts to find suitable alternatives to flow huge quantities of supplies to our growing force in Afghanistan. No matter where they go, however, Moscow seems to have undermined their efforts.

Kyrgyzstan illustrates Moscow’s regional influence. That country’s Manas Air Base hosts U.S. cargo and refueling aircraft which support Afghan operations. In December, the U.S. offered to increase rent for the base from $64 to $150 million, but then the Russians countered with a $2 billion “loan” for Kyrgyzstan. Now, even though the U.S. counter-offered with another $64 million and a $25 million signing bonus, the Kyrgyz government issued an eviction notice.

Russia was quiet about U.S. operations at Manas and other Central Asian facilities until recently. Admi.William Fallon, the former head of the U.S. military’s Central Command, said he believes Moscow’s motivation for encouraging the closure of Manas and playing hard-ball with other regional governments is to reassert influence in Central Asia and remove a visible U.S. presence from former Soviet Republics.

Russia is being two-faced about America’s quest for a northern resupply route. Russian president Dmitri Medvedev said “The Russian Federation … [is] ready for full-fledged, comprehensive cooperation with the United States … in combating terrorism in the region.” He appeared to link that cooperation to American policy changes — the price for Russian cooperation.

Moscow hasn’t been shy about the changes it seeks. Some of Medvedev’s cabinet officials and Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin have warned against America’s plans to place a radar facility in the Czech Republic and interceptor missiles in Poland. Other officials have expressed their opposition to NATO’s eastward expansion and want America to acknowledge the existence of Russia’s sphere of influence among its former satellites.

So how does Obama persuade the Russians to facilitate a northern resupply route without conceding too much to Moscow? That task was confused somewhat last weekend when vice president Joe Biden announced to a security conference in Munich, Germany, that it was “time to press the reset button” and revisit many of the areas where the U.S. and Russia can work together.

Biden’s statement was music to ears of Sergei Ivanov, Russia’s deputy prime minister. But Biden’s promise to “reset” relations seemed to explicitly exclude from compromise NATO expansion and ballistic missile defense, both hot button issues for Moscow.

Given Moscow’s interference, Iran’s influence in the area and the instability of Pakistan, the odds are enormous against Obama pulling off a diplomatic miracle in securing a reliable northern resupply route without compromising America’s security interests.

* Israel launches covert war against Iran Israel has launched a covert war against Iran as an alternative to direct military strikes against Tehran’s nuclear program.

* Nasrallah: Let’s see what Lieberman’s got Hizbullah leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah made his first comments on Monday about the results of last week’s general election.

* Livni: Give up half of ‘Land of Israel’ Kadima leader tells convention of American Jewish leaders in Jerusalem Israel must come forward with its own peace plan.

* Blair wins $1m leadership prize Former prime minister Tony Blair has won $1m (£697,000) for his leadership on the world stage.

* EU citizenship concept to be ‘fleshed out’ EU citizenship should mean freedom of movement, consular protection abroad and trans-national voting.

* Obama May Force Israeli Unity Coalition To Gain US Leverage US President Barack Obama may pressure Kadima prime ministerial candidate Tzipi Livni to enter into a coalition with Likud’s Binyamin “Bibi” Netanyahu.

* New U.S. Administration Disappoints Israel As predicted by seasoned analysts both in the U.S. and Israel, it appears the Barack Obama administration and Israel could be heading on a collision course in several areas.

* EU neighbour Ukraine at risk of going bust Bank analysts predict that Ukraine is heading for a historic default on its national debt.

* Financial crisis tests European Commission authority EU economy commissioner Joaquin Almunia will this week name the first group of states to receive disciplinary action by Brussels for breaching the rules underpinning the euro.

* Race for ‘God particle’ heats up Europe’s particle physics lab, Cern, is losing ground rapidly in the race to discover the elusive Higgs boson, or “God particle”, its US rival claims.

* Defense establishment: Iran No.1 threat to Israel IDF chief presents defense minister with military’s work plan for 2009, says Tehran near-nuclear capabilities, existing ballistic aptitude and terror contacts pose ‘existential threat’ to Israel

* World duped by Hamas death count Four weeks after the cessation of Operation Cast Lead, the IDF finally opened its dossier on Palestinian fatalities on Sunday for the first time.

* Russia to hold Mideast summit Russia will not invite Hamas or push a “Syrian track” at a Middle East peace conference it hopes to hold in Moscow by mid-year.

* Nuclear subs collide in Atlantic A Royal Navy nuclear submarine was involved in a collision with a French nuclear sub in the middle of the Atlantic, the MoD has confirmed.

* Arabs promise $1.5 billion to rebuild Gaza Arab countries have pledged nearly $1.5 billion to rebuild the war-torn Gaza Strip and more funds are expected to be promised at the international donors conference set for next month in Cairo.

* Irish poll shows swing in favour of Lisbon treaty A new poll has shown a swing in favour of the Lisbon treaty in Ireland as the main political parties argue about when would be the best time to hold a second referendum on the document.

* G7 provides few answers to economic crisis Finance ministers and central bank governors of the Group of Seven industrialised nations (G7) met over the weekend in Rome to discuss the ongoing financial crisis and economic slowdown.

* Kadima okays Israel Beiteinu’s demands; Bibi urges unity gov’t Kadima accepted Israel Beiteinu’s list of coalition demands and Avigdor Lieberman’s party said it hoped Likud would soon follow suit.

* Pakistan Agrees to Islamic Law in Swat Region Pakistan government officials said they struck a deal to accept a legal system compatible with Shariah law in the violent Swat region in return for peace.

* Israel takes control of more West Bank land Israel has taken control of a large chunk of land near a prominent West Bank settlement, paving the way for the possible construction of 2,500 settlement homes.

* U.S., EU indicate they prefer Kadima-Likud unity government in Israel While the make-up of the next government remains a question mark in Israel, it appears that the United States and the European Union have already weighed in with a clear preference for a unity government.

* Economic crisis bigger threat than Al Qaeda, US says The economic crisis has topped Al Qaeda as the US’ number one security risk.

* Turkey PM: Israel election results paint ‘very dark picture’ Turkey’s fierce censure of Israel’s offensive in the Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip will not end its role as a peace mediator in the Middle East.

* Israel Thinks U.S. Waiting for Iran Elections to Choose Policy The elections pit Ayatollah Muhammad Hatami against current President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

* Arab Sector Turns to Pan-Arabism, Communists Arab-Israelis are turning their backs on mainstream parties in favor of pan-Arab parties and the Communists.

* Israel, Iran liable to clash in 2009 over nukes, says U.S. intel chief Israel and Iran are liable to enter into a confrontation or a crisis sometime this year due to Tehran’s progress in its nuclear weapons program.

* Iran to US: Chess is better than boxing When it comes to dealing with Iran, the country’s parliamentary speaker said the United States would be better served taking up chess than continuing to box.

* G7 ministers focus on stabilizing world economy Finance ministers from the world’s leading industrialized nations were holding their second and last day of meetings in Rome on Saturday.

* Saudi king dismisses 2 powerful religious figures In an apparent bid to reform the religious establishment, Saudi King Abdullah on Saturday dismissed the head of the feared religious police and a hard-line cleric who issued an edict last year .

* Iranian ship carried munitions supplies A ship suspected of carrying arms from Iran to Gaza had no weaponry aboard but carried material for making munitions.

* Results confirm Israeli deadlock The final results of Israel’s general election have confirmed that neither of the two main parties can form a government on its own.

* Cyprus unloads suspect cargo on Iran ship Cyprus unloaded a cargo of banned weapons-related material on Friday off a ship from Iran found to be in violation of UN arms sanctions on the Islamic Republic.

* Global economy top threat to U.S., spy chief warns The new director of national intelligence told Congress on Thursday that global economic turmoil and the instability it could ignite had outpaced terrorism.

* Russia may finally get its ME summit While not enthused at this time about any international peace conference, Israel would prefer that – if one becomes inevitable – it be hosted by Russia.

* Hamas ‘set for truce with Israel’ A long-term truce between the Palestinian militant group Hamas and Israel may be announced within days.

* N. Korea reportedly assembling advanced long-range missile North Korea appears to be assembling its most advanced long-range missile and could conduct a test launch this month.

* Israel: Two-thirds of Palestinians killed in Gaza fighting were terrorists Israel says that about two-thirds of the Palestinians who were killed in the Gaza fighting were members of terror organizations who took part in the fighting.

* Russian warship seizes 3 pirate ships off Somalia A Russian nuclear-powered warship has captured 10 pirates in three ships off the coast of Somalia.

* Israel warns of harsh response to any attack by Hezbollah Israel warned Hezbollah this week that it will respond harshly to any attempt to down an Israel Air Force jet over Lebanon.

By: Sana Abdallah – Middle East Times

AMMAN — Thirty years after the success of its Islamic revolution, the Iranian influence in the region may not have grown as much as the ruling clerics would have wished, but its clout has expanded enough to become a sharp thorn in the side of the Western-allied Arab countries.

PERSIAN PRIDE — Iranians are proud of the success of their Islamic revolution 30 years later. Though Iran’s ambition to expand its clout across the region is not as successful, its influence still remains a thorn in the side of Western-allied Arab countries. Thousands of Iranians celebrate the 30th anniversary of the Islamic revolution at Azadi (freedom) Square in Tehran on Feb. 10. (UPI Photo)

When Iran’s Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi was ousted from power in January 1979 and Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini returned from exile in France in February of the same year to be installed as the leader and founder of the Islamic Republic of Iran, the Arab countries quickly sensed the potential threat emanating from the new militantly anti-American regime in Tehran.

The immediate success of the Islamic revolution, although Shiite Islam, meant it would not be long before Iran is able to ward off Western influence and export political Islam to the region, where religious politics was already brewing in the streets of the predominantly Sunni Muslim Arab world.

When Khomeini called for Iraq’s Shiite majority to rise up against Saddam Hussein’s secular Baath regime in September 1980, Iraq invaded Iran, sparking an eight-year war that killed one million people on both sides.

Throughout the bloody war, Saddam repeatedly insisted he was fighting on behalf of all Arab states against Persian expansion, and most of the Arabs in fact supported Iraq at the time. In addition to Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain also saw that the new regime in Tehran was inciting their Shiite minorities to rise against their regimes.

While Iran’s relations with the Arabs have fluctuated since the end of the war with Iraq in 1988, though they sustained caution, Tehran’s policies of intervention in the Arab world and its pursuit of nuclear and missile programs – intensified under the current leadership of conservative President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad – have raised serious Arab concerns over regional security, as they scrambled for ways to deal with a new rising regional, and non-Arab, power.

Middle East experts say that Iranian ambitions to export their revolution have not succeeded as much as they would have liked, namely because of the Persian, Shiite-style system of Iran’s “theocratic democracy.”

The 2003 U.S.-led invasion that toppled Saddam’s regime in Iraq, and subsequent occupation, brought to power pro-Iranian rulers in the new Iraq and sectarian strife began to rip the country apart, raising the tension further between the Arabs and Tehran.

Some Arab leaders began to raise the alarm about Iranian influence spreading across the region. In 2004, Jordan’s King Abdullah II warned of a “Shiite crescent” spreading from Iran to the Mediterranean.

In 2005, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal criticized U.S. policy in Iraq for serving Iranian interests. He said: “We fought a war together to keep Iran out of Iraq after Iraq was driven out of Kuwait (in 1991). Now we are handing the whole country over to Iran without reason.”

A year later, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak said the Arab Shiites were more loyal to Iran than to their own countries.

Iran’s influence in post-Saddam Iraqi politics, however, seems to shrinking. Last week’s provincial elections showed the Iranian-backed Shiite religious alliance losing ground to Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s candidates, who recently distanced themselves from Tehran’s agenda, and other nationalist and secular groups.

There is also Iran’s declared support for and political empowerment of the Lebanese Shiite Hezbollah organization and the Palestinian Islamist Hamas movement, which have created serious polarization in the region between pro- and anti-Western camps. This polarization has played itself out, sometimes violently, in major political crises that have hit Lebanon and the Palestinian territories, and split the Arab leaderships.

Foreign ministers of eight Arab nations and the Palestinian Authority last week met urgently in Abu Dhabi to “boost Arab solidarity by ending non-Arab intervention that is unwelcome and unconstructive,” in obvious reference to Iran.

Some analysts argue that the cost of Iran’s desire to be recognized as a powerful regional power to be reckoned with – whether through its influence on Iraq, Hezbollah and Hamas, or through its nuclear and missile programs – has been too costly and at the expense of its economy and its relations with the West.

Despite growing, yet shy, criticism by some Iranian reformists about the cost of the Islamic republic’s ambitions to become a regional power, Ahmadinejad feeds the national pride with the military and scientific development the country has achieved.

At a speech to thousands of people marking the 30th anniversary of the Islamic revolution on Tuesday, Ahmadinejad boasted about the “scientific achievements, and declared: “I officially announce that Iran today is a real and true superpower.”

This adds to the general historic Arab caution towards Iran.

It is no secret that Arab-Persian mistrust dates back since the Arab Muslim conquest of Mesopotamia in the 7th century, which eventually led to the end of the Persian Empire. Today, the two sides continue to disagree on whether the Gulf is “Arab” or “Persian.”

Analysts say the Arabs often sense that the Iranians look down on them as inferiors as they seek to impose their power in the region. However, even if Arab Islamist or nationalist groups meet with the Iranians on many political issues and have forged convenient alliance, this underlying demeanor may be one of the important factors preventing Tehran from achieving its ambitions in exporting its revolution to the rest of the region.

* Military vote could help decide Israeli election Israel planned to announce on Thursday the final results of its gridlocked election after tallying soldiers’ votes that could tip the balance in the ongoing battle to lead the country.

* U.S. now sees Iran as pursuing nuclear bomb Little more than a year after U.S. spy agencies concluded that Iran had halted work on a nuclear weapon, the Obama administration has made it clear that it believes there is no question that Tehran is seeking the bomb.

* EU urges Israel to stick to peace process The Czech EU presidency has urged any future Israeli government to stick to the two-state solution on Palestine.

* Arabs Distressed by Islamic Revolution’s Success Thirty years after the success of its Islamic revolution, the Iranian influence in the region may not have grown as much as the ruling clerics would have wished.

* White House: Obama to push peace process, regardless of Israel leader United States President Barack Obama intends to work toward Middle East peace regardless of who forms Israel’s new government.

* Brussels seeks to regain lead on economic crisis The European Commission and Czech EU presidency on Wednesday (11 February) sought to stamp their authority on dealing with the current economic crisis.

* Pope condemns denial of Holocaust Pope Benedict XVI has told American Jewish leaders that any denial of the Holocaust is “intolerable”, especially if it comes from a clergyman.

* Egypt cracks down on smugglers near Gaza Egyptian police arrested 40 suspected smugglers and seized goods in a new crackdown on smuggling into the Hamas-run Gaza Strip.

* Anti-Islamic film’s maker faces UK ban A Dutch lawmaker who made a controversial film about Islam planned to travel to Britain on Thursday despite a ban on his entry.

* Abbas urges world to isolate Likud like it does Hamas Palestinian Authority chairman Mahmoud Abbas has conducted an international campaign in recent weeks aimed at the diplomatic isolation of a right-wing government.

By: Quentin Peel – The Financial Times Limited

Russia may face a grim economic downturn but one would scarcely think so to judge by the sound of sabre-rattling emerging from the Kremlin. Unless, of course, it is intended as a domestic distraction from the gathering gloom.

The double-act of Dmitry Medvedev and Vladimir Putin has come up with a series of security initiatives that seem designed to provoke, or at least irritate, the new administration in Washington. Without even waiting to hear how President Barack Obama intends to conduct his relations with Moscow – something that Joe Biden, his vice-president, may well address on Saturday at the annual Munich Security Conference – the Russian leaders have thrown down the gauntlet.

First, they leaked details of naval and air bases to be established on the shores of the Black Sea in the breakaway Georgian province of Abkhazia, whose independence is recognized by Moscow alone. Then they signed an air defense treaty with the former Soviet republic of Belarus, apparently paving the way for an anti-missile defense system to counter one planned by the previous US administration across the border in Poland. Moscow appears to have persuaded the Central Asian republic of Kyrgyzstan to oust the US from its air base at Manas, outside Bishkek, in exchange for $2bn (€1.6bn, £1.4bn) in loans, and $150m in financial aid.

Russia and the former Soviet republics of Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan – the so-called Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) – have agreed to form a “rapid reaction force” which is intended to be just as good as the equivalent force operated by the Nato alliance, according to President Medvedev.

Outside analysts are sceptical whether any of these moves amounts to a particularly effective military gesture but they are certainly intended to suggest that Russia is not rushing to embrace the new US administration.

The air defence deal with Belarus is on a par with Mr Medvedev’s announcement, on the day Mr Obama was elected, that Russian Iskander missiles would be sited in the Kaliningrad enclave to counter the US missile defense system. It appears to negate a subsequent conciliatory gesture from Moscow, saying those missiles would not be deployed if the US also held back.

As for the Abkhaz naval base, it may be intended as an insurance policy for the day when, or if, Russia is forced to vacate the existing base for its Black Sea fleet at Sevastopol in the Crimea, which is leased from Ukraine until 2017. Oksana Antonenko, senior fellow for Russia and Eurasia at the International Institute of Strategic Studies in London, believes all the actions are part of a pattern, intended to provoke a US reaction, and give Russia more bargaining chips in negotiating a new relationship with Washington. “In Russia there has never been any euphoria about Obama as there has been in the rest of Europe,” she says. “Russia is still very mistrustful of the US, and Putin profoundly so.

“But there is an overwhelming view in Moscow now that the Americans are in decline and will be forced to negotiate with Russia from a position of weakness. They seem to expect all the concessions to come from Obama. It is very unrealistic.”

The response from Washington has been muted. Russia is simply not a high priority for the new president. Western analysts believe Russia’s production of Iskander missiles is not enough to base any significant numbers in Belarus as well as on its southern borders. As for the rapid reaction force, it is regarded with wry amusement in Brussels. None of Russia’s would-be allies wants to be used as a pawn in some muscle-flexing contest with Washington. Even Abkhazia is unhappy about becoming a vast military base for its neighbor.

So perhaps the entire operation is for domestic purposes. That way it might at least make sense.

By: Helene Cooper – International Herald Tribune

The Obama administration is facing its first big international test this weekend as Vice President Joseph Biden Jr. heads to a conference in Europe in the face of a confrontational stance from an old cold war adversary.

Administration officials have concluded that Russia pressed Kyrgyzstan, a former Soviet republic, to close the American base in that country, which they interpret as a shot across the bow. The base is crucial to the American-led fight in Afghanistan that Obama has identified as his central national security objective. Obama plans to deploy as many as 30,000 additional troops to Afghanistan over the next two years; shaky overland supply routes through Pakistan would make it difficult for the United States to adjust to the loss of the base, in Manas, Kyrgyzstan.

It was Biden who warned publicly in October that Obama’s mettle could be tested early in his administration by some kind of an international crisis. Now, a speech that Biden is scheduled to deliver Saturday before leaders and defense officials from Europe and Asia will be watched closely to determine what tack America’s fledgling leadership will take regarding Russia.

Will Biden follow the course of the Bush administration, which sounded conciliatory public notes about the need for cooperation with Russia even as it pursued a series of global policies — NATO enlargement, missile defense — that the Kremlin viewed as infringing on its sphere of influence? Or will Biden seek to reassure Russia that the Obama administration will ease up on western forays into the former Soviet sphere? For instance, he could announce a strategic review of missile defense, which could take the issue off the table for months.

Administration officials have made only general forecasts. “Stay tuned,” a senior administration official said. “It will be dramatic.” He said that Biden would try to outline “our approach to foreign policy, and the principles which we’ll be following.”

In the past, Biden has slammed President George W. Bush’s Russia policy. “Whatever our game plan has been — and I’m not convinced we’ve had one — it clearly isn’t working,” he said in 2007 before a Senate committee, in the midst of some Russian-American wrangling. But now, with the job of outlining the new game plan, Biden and the Obama administration have to decide how firm they want to be, and at what cost.

“They’ve got to make a strategic decision on what is more important, their Russia policy or their Afghan policy,” said George Friedman, chief executive of Stratfor, a geopolitical risk analysis company.

The new administration is also counting on Russia’s help with Iran. Obama administration officials say that they want Russia, Europe and China to look into strengthening sanctions against Iran, as part of an approach that would offer Iranian officials direct talks with the United States but also threaten tougher sanctions if Iran does not suspend its uranium enrichment program. The West believes Iran’s nuclear program is aimed at producing a nuclear weapon, a charge Tehran denies.

Already, administration officials say that the Russian prime minister, Vladimir Putin, has indicated to them that he is opposed to stronger sanctions against Iran. Foreign policy experts say that could make for difficult negotiations ahead.

There are few in the administration who do not put the blame for the loss of the Kyrgyz base squarely at Russia’s door. “It’s clearly an attempt to turn the screw,” one senior administration official said. “Whatever we do, I can promise you it will be well thought-out.”

Russia’s defense minister, Sergei Ivanov, is going to be in Munich; it remained unclear on Thursday whether Biden would meet with him. Aides were still working on Biden’s scheduled speech on Thursday.

The security conference, at the swank Bayerischer Hof Hotel, boasts a high-powered, international guest list: President Hamid Karzai of Afghanistan, Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany, and President Nicolas Sarkozy of France are all expected to attend. Also scheduled to be on hand, along with more than 5,000 expected protesters, are two Iranian officials: Foreign Minister Manouchechr Mottaki and the Parliament speaker, Ali Larijani.

Russian-American relations have dominated the conference in past year. In 2007, Putin, then Russia’s president, lashed out against the Bush administration, accusing the United States of provoking a nuclear arms race in other countries which were seeking to protect themselves from an “almost uncontained use of military force” by the United States.

Defense Secretary Robert Gates responded that “one cold war is enough.”

Biden will be joined in Munich by General James Jones, the national security adviser; Richard Holbrooke, the special representative to Afghanistan and Pakistan; James Steinberg, the deputy secretary of state, and General David Petraeus, who as head of the United States Central Command oversees all American forces in the Middle East and South Asia.

With Europe fearful of getting caught in a deteriorating situation between the United States and Russia, the Obama administration must look to strike a firm tone without alarming its NATO allies, foreign policy experts said. But at the same time, the administration must seek to allay the fears of Eastern European countries who want closer ties to the West and who are worried about any message that might imply that the United States might cede them back to Russia’s sphere of influence.

It is a tough balancing act, especially given that the administration is less than a month old, and neither Obama or Biden have met with Russia’s leaders yet in their new roles. Biden, Russia experts say, will have his work cut out for him.

“Whatever you say in public, and whatever calm and statesmanlike tone you use to explain what you’re doing with the Europeans, you have to convey to the Russians that this kind of action is going to make it hard for the relationship to get off the ground,” said Stephen Sestanovich, a Russia expert at the Council on Foreign Relations. “Unfortunately for Obama and Biden, they have do this without knowing the guys across the table particularly well.”

But, Sestanovich recalled Biden’s remark last fall about how the new administration should anticipate a test. “Maybe,” he said, “This is Biden’s moment.”

* Israel rivals vie to head cabinet Leaders of the two main Israeli parties are seeking coalition partners to form a government after neither emerged the clear winner in early elections.

* Netanyahu declares: I will be next PM Likud Party leader Binyamin Netanyahu declared that he would be Israel’s next prime minister and promised to begin collation talks to form a new government.

* New U.S. approach to China not just economic The Obama administration plans to realign the United States’ relationship with China by widening the focus beyond the economic concerns of the Bush years.

* Arabs fear rise of hard-right in Israel Arabs on Wednesday saw little hope for peace from whatever government emerges from Israel’s inconclusive elections.

* German judges express scepticism about EU treaty Several of the eight judges in charge of examining whether the EU’s Lisbon Treaty is compatible with the German constitution have expressed scepticism about the constitutional effects of further EU integration.

* Teheran denies running out of uranium Iran said Wednesday that it was not running out of raw uranium or seeking to buy uranium concentrate from abroad to sustain its ambitious nuclear program.

* NKorea moving missile equipment to site North Korea has been moving missile equipment to a launch pad in a further indication the country is taking steps toward test firing a long-range missile.

* China to build Mecca rail system China has signed an agreement with Saudi Arabia to build a new railway system linking the main sites of the annual Muslim pilgrimage, the Hajj.

* EU crisis summit ‘on March 1’ EU leaders will hold a special summit on the economic crisis in Brussels on March 1.