By: Claude Salhani – Middle East Times

Is the Arab-Israeli peace process salvageable? That question was raised Tuesday at a luncheon discussion hosted by the Nixon Center in Washington. The speaker was Aaron David Miller, a man who has advised six U.S. secretaries of state and a former Arab-Israeli peace negotiator.

A young Jewish settler girl dressed as a princess and holding a wand stands before an Israeli guard tower during the Jewish holiday of Purim in the divided West Bank town of Hebron on March 10. The festival of Purim commemorates the rescue of Jews from genocide in ancient Persia. (Sipa Photo via Newscom)

Indeed, the situation in the Middle East today renders that question, posed in that way, no longer pertinent. Rather the question should be framed in the following manner: “Is there still an Arab-Israeli peace process? Or perhaps that process should be renamed ‘the broader Middle East peace process,’ assuming peace talks involving all the new actors in the extended conflict ever gets back on track.

Why? Because what used to be known as the Arab-Israeli dispute has now morphed into the Arab-Israeli-Persian dispute.

What used to be a relatively straightforward conflict over real estate has become a complicated war of religion, natural resources, and of course real estate – but with one more explosive ingredient, if you will excuse the pun: nuclear weapons.

Until now Israel was the only country in the region armed with nuclear bombs and the technology and capability to deliver those bombs. No one, including American presidents, liked to talk about Israel’s nuclear arsenal. Enter Iran into the fold, a non-Arab country and one that does not border on Israel; a country that has no contention with Israel, no land dispute, and no bad history. Until now.

Until now because the crisis in the Middle East has split into multiple crises, like regenerating cells, each forming a new crisis. Today we can no longer talk about the Arab-Israeli conflict, rather we need to differentiate between the Israeli-Palestinian disputes – plural. The one between Israel and the West Bankers; the Israeli-Hamas dispute, the Israeli-Hezbollah dispute, the Israeli-Syrian dispute, and maybe even an internal Israeli-Israeli conflict.

“Rarely have I seen a situation more dysfunctional and complex,” said Miller, now a senior fellow at the Woodrow Wilson Center and author of “The Much Too Promised Land.”

The ever-expanding complexity of the Middle East crisis is making it all the more difficult to resolve. One of the difficulties lies in the fact that all these emerging sub-conflicts are interrelated, making the solution of one unrealistic without the solution of the others.

“In Palestine you have Humpty Dumpty that has fallen off the wall,” said Miller. “You have two polities, two sets of how to approach the problem with Israel. Unity between the Palestinians is unlikely. That in turn renders peace between the Israelis and the Palestinians unlikely.

Then, as Miller pointed out, “You have Syria with one foot inside the peacemaking tent and one foot inside the trouble-making tent.”

And Israel, says the former adviser, is undergoing a transition. But at the same time, the country is more dysfunctional than it ever was in its history, with a “weak and non-authoritative government.”

And if that were not enough, the Iranian element is added to the mix. As Miller pointed out, “There will be no Israeli-Syrian agreement until the Iranian nuclear dossier is solved.”

But just how do you solve that dossier?

There are two ways out of the Iranian nuclear impasse. And neither is very likely to lead to a conclusive peace agreement in the Middle East.

The first is if Iran voluntarily reneges on its nuclear aspirations. The chances of that happening are about as good as an ayatollah becoming pope.

The second option is if Israel destroys some of Iran’s nuclear making capability. That would only amplify the crisis and augment the level of animosity between Iran and Israel.

But oh yes, there is a third alternative: accept a nuclear powered Iran. This would not only make Israel very nervous, but many Arab nations too, and it could kick off a nuclear proliferation race in the Middle East.

Only two weeks ago Iran stated that Bahrain, the smallest Arab country, belonged to Tehran. A problem which began at one end of the broader Middle East, in the Gulf, has suddenly reached the other end of the region with Morocco breaking off diplomatic relations with the Islamic republic over its statements regarding Bahrain.

Why is that worth a mention? Because the last time a leader in the same region (Iraq’s President Saddam Hussein) claimed a smaller neighbor (Kuwait) as his, it led to a major war.

There are no indications that Iran is about to invade Bahrain, home to the U.S. Fifth Fleet, but as Miller pointed out, “If you ignore the past, the past becomes a cruel and unforgivable teacher.”

* Turkey says willing to continue Syria mediation “In the neighborhood we live in – Israel could not find a better friend than Turkey,” Turkish Ambassador to Israel, Namik Tan, said on Thursday evening.

* Ashkenazi to focus on Iran in US visit Iran will be the focus of talks IDF Chief of General Staff Lt.-Gen. Gabi Ashkenazi is to hold in Washington this weekend.

* Chairman of Joint Chiefs: Iran Can Develop Nukes Iran is at the point where it can develop nuclear weapons said Admiral Michael Mullen, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

* Islamic states: Criminalize defamation of Islam The Islamic states circulated a new resolution at the current session of the UN Human Rights Council in Geneva.

* Shari’a making inroads in the West Pakistan recently gave in to the pressure of Islamist militants.

* Israel-Turkey ties critical to region, says Ankara The relationship between Israel and Turkey is of “regional and global importance,” according to Turkish Ambassador to Israel Namik Tan.

* PA unity negotiations near collapse Hamas and Fatah negotiators said on Thursday they are having difficulty reaching an agreement over the makeup and political program of a Palestinian unity government.

* China ‘can boost stimulus plan’ China is ready to introduce new economic stimulus measures “at any time”, Premier Wen Jiabao has said.

* Swiss action sparks talk of ‘currency war’ The Swiss National Bank moved to weaken the Swiss franc on Thursday.

* Friedmann praises Ne’eman appointment Justice Minister Daniel Friedmann issued a statement Friday congratulating Prof. Yaacov Ne’eman on his appointment as the new government’s justice minister.

* Egypt urges Palestinian unity agreement Egyptian moderators want a power-sharing agreement between the various Palestinian factions by Saturday.

* Arab leaders ‘clear the air’ in Riyadh Saudi Arabia hosted the leaders of Egypt and Syria on Wednesday, in an effort to persuade Damascus to move away from Iran.

* Has the Arab-Israeli Conflict Morphed into the Arab-Israeli-Persian Conflict? Is the Arab-Israeli peace process salvageable? That question was raised Tuesday at a luncheon discussion hosted by the Nixon Center in Washington.

* ‘PA gov’t must take Quartet benchmarks’ A Palestinian unity government that does not recognize Israel, renounce terrorism or accept previous Israeli-Palestinian agreements is one the US will not be able to accept.

* Artificial life ‘could be created within five years’ Prof David Deamer, from California University, said although building a new lifeform from scratch is a daunting task he is confident it can happen in five to 10 years.

* Gates: More preemptive strikes unlikely Any future US president will likely be more cautious about launching a preemptive strike against another country following the failure to find evidence of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq.

* Increased Number Think Global Warming Is “Exaggerated” Although a majority of Americans believe the seriousness of global warming is either correctly portrayed in the news or underestimated, a record-high 41% now say it is exaggerated.

* Central Asia’s Complex Geopolitics U.S./NATO supply lines through Pakistan to Afghanistan have come under increasing attack.

* Sarkozy announces France’s return to NATO French president Nicolas Sarkozy on Wednesday (11 March) announced the return of his country to the military structures of NATO.

* China demands end of US Navy surveillance China’s Defense Ministry has demanded that the US Navy end surveillance missions off the country’s southern coast.

* Russia Reconsidering Missile Deal With Iran Russia may not deliver the S-300 air defence systems to Iran, according to Russian news agency Interfax.

* Mubarak and Assad will seek to repair rift at Saudi summit In another effort at inter-Arab reconciliation, the leaders of Egypt and Syria will visit Saudi Arabia on Wednesday to meet with King Abdullah.

* Saudis and Syrians cement detente Saudi Arabia says King Abdullah is to hold talks with the Syrian leader in Riyadh on Wednesday.

* UN demands answers on Iran arms ship Iran and Syria have until next week to explain to a United Nations sanctions committee how they were involved with a ship detained off Cyprus in January found to be loaded with explosives believed to be bound for Gaza.

* Stem cell go-ahead puts Obama at odds with pope President Barack Obama’s lifting of restrictions on federal funding for human embryonic stem cell research puts him at odds with Pope Benedict and the American Roman Catholic Church.

* ‘It will be difficult to stop Iran’ It would be difficult to stop Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons and hard to tell which combination of carrots and sticks might convince Iran’s leaders to abandon that goal.

* As U.S. weighs Taliban negotiations, Afghans are already talking Even as President Barack Obama floated the idea of negotiating with moderate elements of the Taliban, Afghan and foreign officials here said that preliminary discussions with the Taliban leadership were already under way.

* Egyptian cleric blasts Starbucks for ‘Queen Esther’ logo As Jews around the world are celebrating Purim, one Egyptian cleric has used the holiday to launch an attack against Starbucks.

* 40,000 Israelis expected to attend papal mass Some 40,000 people are expected to attend the mass the pope will lead on his scheduled visit to Israel in May.

By: Dan Perry – Associated Press

MOSCOW – In some of his strongest criticism of his successors, Mikhail Gorbachev on Thursday likened Vladimir Putin’s United Russia party to the worst of the communists he once led and helped bring down, and said Russia is today a country where the parliament and the judiciary are not fully free.

In an interview with The Associated Press some 20 years after the Soviet empire started its rapid collapse on his tumultuous watch, Gorbachev also said the global economic crisis showed capitalism should be tempered with elements of the socialist system he played such a critical role in sweeping away.

The last Soviet leader was interviewed in the offices of his Gorbachev Foundation, a think tank founded in 1992 to promote “democratic values and moral, humanistic principles” — as well as, some say, Gorbachev himself. A little aged and more heavyset perhaps, Gorbachev, 78, seemed feisty, friendly and often reminiscent of the man who once ruled one of two superpowers on Earth.

Gorbachev is a paradoxical figure even after all these years — widely credited around the world with a historic convulsion he admits he did not intend. He sought to fix communism, not destroy it, and in the interview said that while he was willing to let Eastern Europe go its own way he very much hoped the republics that formed the Soviet Union would stay united.

“I was a resolute opponent of the breakup of the union,” said Gorbachev, who was forced to step down on Dec. 25, 1991, as the country he led ceased to exist.

He still holds out hope that one day Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Belarus will join with Russia in forming a new union.

He seemed to view the global meltdown as partly the result of years of Western hubris and excess.

“The American media trumpeted … about the victory in the Cold War, that socialism is down. This disease of extreme self-confidence led to it — the (belief) that things would always go on this way. And it did last long … I think that now everyone is learning a hard lesson.”

“It is necessary to overcome these mistakes of super-consumerism, of super-profits.” he said. “We have to think about finding — through the G20 or other institutions — new models of development (and) cooperation.”

The world should look for a composite system, he said, which incorporates “the past experience of all that the capitalist system brings, like competitiveness, and what socialism gives — especially a social safety net.”

Gorbachev also said the moment was right for improved U.S.-Russia relations, expressed skepticism about the wisdom of Ukraine joining NATO, and called on the world community to head off the prospect of an Iranian nuclear weapon not with confrontation but rather “a maximal dialogue.”

“Let (Iran) integrate itself into the global community, build normal relations,” he said.

Gorbachev had harsh words for the current Russian leadership, singling out United Russia, the party Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has built into a political juggernaut at the center of a tremendously centralized — albeit popular — power structure.

“I criticize United Russia a lot, and I do it directly,” the last Soviet leader said. “It is a party of bureaucrats and the worst version of the CPSU” — the Communist Party of the Soviet Union. “Regarding our parliament, I cannot say that it is independent (and) also our judiciary does not fully comply with the provisions of the constitution.”

Is the world waiting for such advice? If there are takers, most will be outside Russia, where he has become a rather marginal political figure: For every Russian who appreciates his role in ending communism there are certainly many more inclined to blame him for the privations of the process he unleashed: the impoverishment many suffered in the 1990s, the vastly unequal distribution of wealth that bedevils society even today, the failings of Russian democracy — and the humiliating loss of the once-vast empire ruled from the Kremlin.

Asked about the fateful Nov. 9, 1989, when the Berlin Wall fell, Gorbachev said that he never contemplated force to stop the process that within months saw most of the Warsaw Pact break free. He said it was inevitable that the states of that region would be free to do as they wished.

Yet even in Eastern Europe, as the region gears up to celebrate the 20th anniversary of the fall of communism, Gorbachev gets only the rarest of mentions and he is forced to share credit for the revolution with a slew of others — Poland’s Lech Walesa, Vaclav Havel, Ronald Reagan and the late Pope John Paul II.

“We live more freely now than in the communist era because of what he did and achieved,” said Peter Nagy, a 37-year-old public employee in Budapest. “However, he was still the leader of a dictatorial system, not a democrat. I would not accept him today as a leader.”

Havel, the former Czech president, in his memoirs “To the Castle and Back” described Gorbachev as both a special and tragic case and said the collapse of communism would have been much more violent without him.

In Warsaw, former anti-communist dissident Adam Michnik said he feels “great gratitude” toward Gorbachev. “I don’t have the slightest doubt that it was Gorbachev and his policy of glasnost and perestroika that opened the gates for the great changes that first took place in our country and then in this part of the continent,” Michnik said.

In the interview, Gorbachev was philosophical about his declining political fortunes.

“Personally, as a politician, I lost. But the idea that I conveyed and the project that I carried out, it played a huge role in the world and the country. But now the situation is such that more and more people are starting to understand what Gorbachev did …

“But anyway, we have gone far, and there’s no return.”

Gorbachev laughed when asked whether his recent appearance in Louis Vuitton ads might not cheapen such a momentous legacy, saying his foundation needed the money. He noted that he had also once appeared in Pizza Hut ads, and asked if any other offers might be forthcoming.

By: Patrick Wintour – Guardian News and Media Limited

Gordon Brown will claim today his visit to the US this week has put him on the verge of winning international agreement on principles for banking regulation to put to the G20 summit on 2 April.

Addressing the Scottish Labour party conference, he is expected to highlight plans to crackdown on countries that refuse to co-operate on tax havens, possibly by putting them on an OECD blacklist. The Brown team noted that in his speech to Congress, he won loudest support when he called for closure of tax havens and unregulated shadow banking.

Last night the White House released details of Obama’s trip to Europe from 31 March to 5 April. The start of the trip will be devoted to the G20 summit. On 3 April, he is hold bilateral meetings with French president Nicolas Sarkozy and German chancellor Angela Merkel.

He is to follow these with visits to Strasbourg, France, and Kehl, Germany, to mark the 60th anniversary of Nato and discuss sending more troops to Afghanistan. He is to finish his trip in the Czech Republic at a meeting of EU leaders.

As part of the planned shake-up of the financial system, France and Germany on Tuesday proposed fresh measures against non-co-operative tax centres and called for a revised set of criteria to determine whether Switzerland should be added to the list.

Brown is stressing that, like the US, he is not seeking a single world regulator, or even an EU regulator, a proposal on which the European commission is increasingly supportive. He is more interested in setting out agreed principles on transparency, and regulation for individual jurisdictions to implement.

Ben Bernanke, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, set himself against an international regulator in evidence to Congress this week, but said he supported common principles being agreed at the G20.

The principles of remuneration, according to Brown, will focus on the need for bonuses linked to long term rewards, rather than short term risk-taking. Brown believes the Obama team agrees that the recession requires an international response and an updating of international financial institutions.

The Brown team said they were impressed by the degree to which Obama was engaged with the G20 issues, and they recognise co-operation on international regulation is now a necessity, something previous administrations have resisted.

He insists that a solid agreement endorsed by all members of the G20 is the single development that will help steady the markets, and alongside other measures help persuade the banks to start lending again.

Brown is also aware he needs to manage expectations for the G20 communique, and that if it is seen as too vague in comparison with its pre-billing the markets could react negatively.

The Brown team has known many of Obama’s key economic advisers such as Larry Summers for more than 10 years.

They also left with a stronger feel for the key figures such as David Axelrod, the president’s chief adviser, and his chief of staff, Rahm Emanuel.

By: The Jerusalem Post

It isn’t everyday we’re given insight into the strategic thinking of Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. But on Wednesday he addressed the Fourth International Conference for Support of Palestine in Teheran. Among the luminaries rumored to be in attendance was Hizbullah’s Hassan Nasrallah.

An Iranian protestor covers his face at an anti-Israel rally at the Felestin (Palestine) Street, in Teheran, Iran, Sunday.
Photo: AP

Iranian presidents come and go; the supreme leader, who sits atop the regime’s political, judicial and military hierarchy, rules for life.

Khamenei professed to be in an optimistic mood following the “amazing military and political defeats” Israel suffered in the Second Lebanon War and more recently in Gaza. Still, he was bitter about what the “Zionist criminals” did – “impaling of infants” for instance. Fortunately, he noted, “advances in technology” (read al-Jazeera) have exposed “the magnitude” of Israel’s atrocities.

He denounced Muslim “pragmatists” who, in the mistaken belief that Israel was too strong to destroy, have been willing to temporarily accept its existence. And he had even less patience for those who genuinely “entertained hopes of peaceful coexistence.”

After 60 years of “occupation” the “illegitimacy” of the Zionist regime stands undiminished. The Holocaust must be denied because it “served as an excuse for the usurpation of Palestine.” On the bright side, he noted that Israel’s image has never been more tarnished and lauded the “spontaneous” protests conducted by Israel’s enemies around the world. Israel was a “fake and counterfeit nation” a “cancerous tumor” that could not be negotiated with – though some Palestinian leaders make the mistake of doing so. The only way for Muslims and Palestinians to achieve victory over the “Zionist usurper” is “resistance.”

Claiming that “the question of Palestine is the most urgent problem of the Islamic world,” Khamenei denounced the Obama administration for its “unconditional commitment to Israel’s security.” It’s a policy that amounts “to the same crooked ways of the Bush administration and nothing else.”

Khamenei proposed that a referendum be held of “all those who have a legitimate stake in the territory of Palestine, including Muslims, Christians and Jews” wherever they may be. He presumed, however, that just as the West did not honor the genuinely free election of Hamas among Palestinians, so too, it would not allow the future of Palestine to be determined by a worldwide plebiscite of Muslims, Christians and Jews.

Typical Western hypocrisy, Khamenei concluded.

THE IDEA that Khamenei will modify so perverted, so deep-seated, a worldview as a result of Obama administration suasion, or European economic incentives and political inducements, is risible.

For Khamenei, Israel is a cancer alright, but America, Britain and Western values generally are the carcinogens; excising Israel alone will not bring the supreme leader the global caliphate he seeks.

Thus the more propitiously President Barack Obama “engages” with Teheran, the quicker Khamenei’s creed will come to the fore, and the more transparent it should be that candidate Obama’s pledge: “I will do everything in my power to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon” deserves to be honored.

WE MAY never know what possessed a Palestinian Arab in Jerusalem yesterday to use a construction vehicle as a weapon. We can surmise, however, that like others before him he was socialized within a religio-political milieu which encourages belligerence, victimization and martyrdom – precisely the ideals inculcated into the minds of Khamenei’s own Revolutionary Guards.

For all its homicidal tendencies, there is no evidence that, at its apex, Iran’s regime is suicidal. Yet its most loyal cadre has been whipped-up by a messianic dogma that blends Persian imperialism with Shi’ite embitterment – belligerence, victimization and martyrdom. One shudders to think that if Iran’s nuclear ambitions aren’t foiled, some overly zealous revolutionary guard might have more than a tractor at his disposal. The Soviet-era template of containment and deterrence simply won’t apply.

This week, Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal urged the Arabs to come together in the face of the “Iranian challenge.” Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas told Iran to stop interfering in Palestinian affairs. While the Arabs fret about the instability wrought by Teheran in Gaza, Iraq, Lebanon and Afghanistan they, like Europeans and Africans, are hedging their bets.

So the longer Obama takes to crystallize his policy, the harder it will be to stop the Iranian bomb.

No wonder Khamenei feels optimistic.

* ‘Dozens dead’ in Baghdad bombing At least 33 people, including a local army chief, have died and 46 have been injured in a suicide attack on the western edge of Baghdad.

* ‘Arabs can help with Iran nuke threat’ Solving the Iranian nuclear threat requires the help of Arab countries neighboring the Islamic republic.

* America becoming less Christian, survey finds America is a less Christian nation than it was 20 years ago, and Christianity is not losing out to other religions, but primarily to a rejection of religion altogether.

* ‘Netanyahu to focus first on PA’ Prime Minister-designate Binyamin Netanyahu has no intention of sidelining the Palestinian track in favor of a Syrian one.

* EU set for bruising G20 encounter with US A new policy divide appears to be opening up between the EU and the US over the extent stimulus spending programs should be used to combat the current global recession.

* Palestinians launch unity talks Rival Palestinian factions are to meet in Cairo, at the start of a process they hope will pave the way for a national unity government.

* Poll: Hamas beats PA in W. Bank, Gaza If elections were held today in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, Hamas Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh would defeat Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas.

* Security forces on high alert for Purim Thousands of police, fire fighters, and ambulance crews are deployed throughout Israel in the defense establishment’s effort to ensure safety and security at Purim parades.

* IMF predicts a global recession The world economy is likely to shrink for the first time in decades this year, the head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned.

* Syria leader: Site hit by Israel built over The Syrian president denounced US claims that a Syrian site bombed by Israel two years ago was a nearly finished nuclear reactor.

* Iran crossed nuclear tech threshold Israel acknowledged for the first time that Teheran had mastered the technology to make a nuclear bomb.

* N Korea warning over satellite North Korea has warned that any attempt to shoot down a satellite it says it plans to launch will result in war.

* US says 12,000 troops to leave Iraq by September About 12,000 U.S. soldiers will leave Iraq by September, officials said.

* Israeli demolitions fuel conflict, EU diplomats say Israel is damaging the prospects for peace with Palestinians by grabbing land and violating civil liberties in East Jerusalem.

* EU ministers draft finance chapter of spring summit EU finance ministers will meet in Brussels on Tuesday to prepare a number of key policy documents.

* Illinois pastor deflected gunshot with Bible A pastor shot and killed during his Sunday sermon deflected the first of the gunman’s four rounds with a Bible.

* World Bank offers dire forecast for world economy In a bleaker assessment than those of most private forecasters, the World Bank predicted Sunday that the global economy would shrink in 2009 for the first time since World War II.

* Obama bid to turn to moderate Taliban ‘will fail’ Co-opting fighters unlikely to succeed, say critics

* Pope confirms Israel visit in early May Pope Benedict XVI will visit Israel, Jordan and the Palestinian territories between May 8 and 15, the leader of the Catholic church confirmed during Sunday’s mass at St. Peter’s in the Vatican.

* US envoy finds ‘common ground’ in Syria A top US diplomat called his talks in Damascus on Saturday “very constructive.”

* Palestinian Authority prime minister submits resignation Palestinian Authority Prime Minister Salaam Fayad submitted his resignation Saturday.

* No peace without shared Jerusalem: Olmert Outgoing Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said in remarks broadcast on Saturday that “there will never be peace” in the Middle East unless Israel and the Palestinians share Jerusalem.

* End game in Iraq? Not yet, but it’s inching closer As he returned to base here after a day patrolling a place once called the Triangle of Death, Captain Landgrove Smith of the 1st Battalion, 63rd Armor Regiment summarized the war in Iraq.

* ‘Israel pursuing annexation of e. J’lem’ An EU report accuses Israel of attempting to annex east Jerusalem by expanding Jewish settlements, demolishing Arab homes.

* Obama trip to Turkey within weeks President Barack Obama will visit Turkey “in a month or so”, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has said on a visit to Ankara.

* Iran and Hamas back Sudan’s Bashir A delegation of senior Middle Eastern leaders has travelled to Sudan to express international support for Omar al-Bashir.

* New US-Syria talks ‘constructive’ A senior US envoy involved in the first high-level contact between the US and Syria since 2005 has said the talks were “very constructive”.

* Russia calls for nuclear-free ME Russia renewed calls for a nuclear-free Middle East, after holding bilateral talks in Geneva on Friday with US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

* Nasa launches Earth hunter probe An unmanned Nasa mission to search the sky for Earth-like planets with the potential to host life has launched from Cape Canaveral in Florida.

* Iran to mull US Afghan invitation Iran would consider a US invitation to a conference on Afghanistan later this month.