The Cabinet headed by prime minister Salam Fayyad submitted its resignation to PA chairman Mahmoud Abbas on Monday, and Fayyad was immediately re-appointed to head the new government. Abbas, whose Fatah organization runs the Judea/Samaria parts of the Palestinian Authority, has called for new elections “by September at the latest” – but Hamas, which controls Gaza, says it will not take part.
Only minor protests have been held, but the Abbas government has been under criticism for the lack of progress in the talks with Israel, for having reportedly made concessions to Israel, and in light of constant Hamas criticism.
Jews, by definition, do not live in the PA-controlled areas. This past December, Abbas said, “We have frankly said, and always will say: If there is an independent Palestinian state with Jerusalem as its capital, we won’t agree to the presence of one Israeli in it.” Months earlier, he even said that he would not agree to a single Jewish soldier in a NATO peacekeeping in the region, but later backtracked.
JORDAN
Though no acute danger faces King Abdullah’s regime, he is experiencing popular protests, and his wife, Queen Rania, has been accused of corruption. A letter signed by 36 leading Bedouin representatives says that Rania must return land and farms expropriated by her family. The letter endorses several demands expressed by the Islamist opposition, and warns that Jordan “will sooner or later face the flood of Tunisia and Egypt, due to the suppression of freedoms and looting of public funds.”
At the same time, Islamist voices are coming to the fore in Jordan; the country’s new Justice Minister has praised the murderer of seven Israeli girls and called for his release from prison. The lethal attack occurred on the Israeli-Jordanian border in 1997.
Abdullah has formed a new government in response to the protests, and U.S. Admiral Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, visited Jordan over the weekend to discuss current events with the leadership.
Jewish history in what is now Jordan goes back to Biblical times, when Moses granted permission to two and a half tribes to live there after taking part in the war for the Land of Israel. Over the centuries, the Jewish population dwindled to nothing. In the 1930’s, leading residents of what was then Transjordan requested that Jews move in to help revive the economy – but the British, who ruled the area, did not want more Jewish-Arab problems, and passed legislation banning Jews from living there.
After the Kingdom of Jordan was created, it ratified this law in 1954, declaring that any person may become a citizen unless he is a Jew (or if a special council approves his request and he has fulfilled other conditions). Jordan has no Jewish community at present.
LIBYA
Underground opposition groups reportedly tried to organize Day of Rage protests on Monday, and have now rescheduled them for this Thursday. Moammar Gadhafi, who has ruled the country since 1969, met last month with political activists and journalists, warned that they would be held responsible if they took part “in any way in disturbing the peace or creating chaos in Libya.”In 1931, 21,000 Jews lived in Libya – 4% of the total population – under generally good conditions. In the late 1930s, the Fascist Italian regime began passing anti-Semitic laws, and in 1942 – when 44 synagogues were operative in Tripoli – German troops occupied the Jewish quarter of Benghazi and deported more than 2,000 Jews to labor camps across the desert, where more than a fifth of them perished.
After World War II, anti-Jewish violence and murderous pogroms caused many Jews to leave the country, principally for Israel, and under Gaddafi’s rule, the situation deteriorated so badly that only 20 Jews remained by 1974. In 2003, the last Jew of Libya, 80-year-old Rina Debach, left the country.
MOROCCO
A video has been distributed calling for a protest to be held on Feb. 20 to demand “equality, social justice, employment, housing, study grants and higher salaries,” as well as “change, political reforms, the resignation of the Government and the dissolution of Parliament.” Analysts do not expect the campaign to succeed. Some have said that the Moroccan government may face unrest in the west, thanks to Algerian instigators.Before the founding of Israel in 1948, there were over 250,000 Jews in the country, but only 3,000 – 7,000 remain today, mostly in Casablanca. In June 1948, 44 Jews were killed in anti-Semitic riots, and large-scale emigration to Israel began. Between 1961 and 1964, more than 80,000 Moroccan Jews emigrated to Israel; by 1967, only 60,000 Jews remained, and four years later, this number was 35,000. Today, the State of Israel is home to nearly 1,000,000 Jews of Moroccan descent, around 15% of the nation’s total population.
SYRIA
In an attempt to head off protests, the Assad government withdrew a plan to remove some subsidies. President Bashar Assad gave a rare interview to the Wall Street Journal in which he said he to hold local elections, pass a new media law, and give more power to private organizations. A planned “Day of Rage” that was organized via Facebook for February 5 failed to materialize.Large Jewish communities existed in Aleppo, Damascus, and Qamishli for centuries. About 100 years ago, a large percentage of Syrian Jews emigrated to the U.S., Central and South America and Israel. Anti-Jewish feeling reached a climax in the late 1930s and early 1940s, and some 5,000 Jews left in the 1940’s for what became Israel. The Aleppo pogrom of December 1947, a pogrom in Aleppo – the third in 100 years – left many dead, hundreds wounded, and the community devastated. Another pogrom in Damascus in 1949 left 12 Jews dead. In 1992, the few thousand remaining Jews were permitted to leave Syria, as long as they did not head for Israel. The few remaining Jews in Syria live in Damascus.
YEMEN
Tuesday marks four straight days of clashes between pro- and anti-government protesters in Yemen’s capital, Sanaa. At least three people were injured on Tuesday as 3,000 activists attempted to march on the presidential palace. They are demanding the resignation of President Ali Abdullah Saleh, who has been in power for 32 years. Protests have become increasingly violent. Besides poverty and unemployment, the Saleh government is grappling a secessionist movement in the south, rebellion in the north, and a regrouping of Al Qaeda on its soil.Between June 1949 and September 1950, 49,000 Yemenite Jews – the overwhelming majority of the country’s Jewish population – was transported to Israel in Operation Magic Carpet. Only a few dozen mostly elderly Jews remain in Yemen.
Category Archives: News Articles
‘Brothers’ in Egypt Present Two Faces
CAIRO—Moaz Abdel Karim, an affable 29-year-old who was among a handful of young activists who plotted the recent protests here, is the newest face of the Muslim Brotherhood. His political views on women’s rights, religious freedom and political pluralism mesh with Western democratic values. He is focused on the fight for democracy and human rights in Egypt.
A different face of the Brotherhood is that of Mohamed Badi, 66-year-old veterinarian from the Brotherhood’s conservative wing who has been the group’s Supreme Guide since last January. He recently pledged the Brotherhood would “continue to raise the banner of jihad” against the Jews, which he called the group’s “first and foremost enemies.” He has railed against American imperialism, and calls for the establishment of an Islamic state.
After Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak stepped down on Friday amid the region’s most dramatic grassroots uprising since the Iranian Revolution in 1979, the Brotherhood became poised to assume a growing role in the country’s political life. The question for many is: Which Brotherhood?
It was Mr. Karim and his younger, more tolerant cohorts who played a key role organizing the protests that began on Jan. 25 and ultimately unseated a 29-year president. But it’s the more conservative, anti-Western old guard that still make up by far the bulk of the group’s leadership.
Mr. Badi, the current leader, wrote an article in September on the group’s website in which he said of the U.S. that “a nation that does not champion moral and human values cannot lead humanity, and its wealth will not avail it once Allah has had His say.”
He wrote in that same article that “resistance is the only solution against the Zio-American arrogance and tyranny, and all we need is for the Arab and Muslim peoples to stand behind it and support it… We say to our brothers the mujahideen in Gaza: be patient, persist in [your jihad], and know that Allah is with you…”
On Monday, meanwhile, Mr. Karim stood shoulder to shoulder at a press conference with youth leaders from half a dozen mostly secular movements, to lay out their vision for how Egypt’s transition to democracy should proceed and to praise the Army for cooperating. Their top demand: a unity government that includes a broad swath of opposition forces.
he Brotherhood, whose leaders Mr. Karim butted heads with in recent weeks, put out a similar message on Saturday calling for free and fair elections. Seeking to allay fears that it would make a power grab, the Brotherhood also said it wouldn’t run a candidate in presidential elections or seek a majority in parliament.
Both Egyptians and outsiders, however, remain wary. They are unsure about how the group will ultimately harness any newfound political gains and whether its more-moderate wing will, in fact, have lasting clout.
“It’s never entirely clear with the Brothers,” says Josh Stacher, a political science professor at Kent State University who spent years in Egypt studying the organization. “It’s a big group, with lots of different points of view. You can find the guy always screaming about Israel and then you got the other guys who don’t care about Israel because they’re too busy worrying about raising literacy rates.”
Israel, which shares a long and porous border with Egypt, fears that if a moderate wing of the Brotherhood exists—and many in Israel’s leadership are skeptical that it does—it could be shoved aside by more extreme factions within the group.
The Brotherhood’s conservative wing has for years put out anti-Israel comments and writings, and helped fund Hamas, the Palestinian militant group. It has also spoken out in support of attacks against U.S. soldiers in Iraq and Afghanistan.
“If the Muslim Brotherhood comes to power, through elections or some other way, that would be a repeat of 1979 in Iran,” when moderate governments installed after the shah gave way to the ayatollahs, says a senior Israeli official. “It’s something we’re looking at with great caution.”
The U.S. appears to be taking a wait-and-see approach, with officials saying in recent days it should be given a chance. President Barack Obama, in an interview with Fox News, acknowledged the group’s anti-American strains, but said it didn’t enjoy majority support in Egypt and should be included in the political process. “It’s important for us not to say that our only two options are either the Muslim Brotherhood or a suppressed Egyptian people,” he said.
The outlawed Islamist opposition group is plagued by rifts between young and old, reformist and hard-liner. There are big city deal-making politicians, and conservative rural preachers who eschew politics in favor of proselytizing Islam.
Egypt’s government has long highlighted the group’s hard-line wing as a threat to the country. Yet its selective crackdowns have historically empowered the very hard-liners it has sought to undermine, analysts and Brotherhood members say.
The conservative leadership’s autocratic leadership style within the movement, its lack of tolerance for dissenting opinions and its preference to conduct business behind closed doors have all contributed to deep skepticism among outsiders about the Brotherhood leadership’s stated commitment to democracy.
In recent years, meanwhile, the group’s pragmatic wing has forged a historic alliance with secular opposition activists. Their role in the unseating of Mr. Mubarak appears to have given them a boost in a struggle for influence with the Brotherhood’s fiery old guard.
“The Muslim Brotherhood as a whole doesn’t deserve credit for this revolution, but certain factions within the movement absolutely do, generally those that have more modern views,” says Essam Sultan, a former member of the group who left in the 1990s to form the moderate Islamist Wasat, or Centrist, Party. “That wing should get a massive bounce out of this.”
Whether that bounce will be enough to propel the more-moderate Brothers to a permanent position of influence—or what their legislative agenda would actually be—is one of the key unknowns in Egypt’s political evolution.
In many ways, this faction resembles conservative right-of-center politicians elsewhere in the Arab world. They espouse a view of Islam as a part of Egyptian heritage and argue that democracy and pluralism are central Islamic values. They are pious and socially conservative, and reject the strict secularism that is a feature of most Western concepts of liberal democracy.
On Wednesday, when it was still unclear whether Mr. Mubarak would step down, Essam el-Eryan, one of the only reformists currently on the group’s 12-member ruling Guidance Council, said in a statement that the group didn’t seek the establishment of an Islamic state; believed in full equality for women and Christians; and wouldn’t attempt to abrogate the Camp David peace treaty with Israel—all tenets espoused by Brotherhood leaders over the decades. Mr. el-Eryan said those Brothers who had suggested otherwise in their writings and public comments in recent days and years had been misunderstood or weren’t speaking for the organization.
Founded in the Suez Canal town of Ismailiya in 1928 by a 22-year-old school teacher, the organization used violence to battle the British occupation in the 1940s.
The group allied with some young officers to overthrow the king in 1952 and bring Gamal Abdel Nasser to power, only to become implicated in an assassination attempt on Nasser two years later. He responded with a fierce crackdown, sending the group’s leadership to prison for years, and its membership ranks into exile.
The Muslim Brotherhood abandoned violence in the years that followed, formally renouncing it as a domestic strategy in 1972. But some of its offspring have taken a bloodier path. Some former members established the group responsible for the assassination of Egyptian President Anwar Al-Sadat in 1981, and others have allied with Al Qaeda.
In the late 1970s and early 1980s, an older generation of leftist and Islamist student activists battled each other violently on college campuses. Egypt’s opposition grew increasingly ineffective, partially as a result of those rifts.
“We saw three successive generations of Brotherhood leaders fail to bring change, and we learned from their mistakes,” says Mr. Karim, one of the leaders of the group’s youth wing.
Brotherhood and secular leaders say the seeds of the cooperation that drove this year’s protests were planted in the early 2000s when Israel’s crackdown on the second Palestinian uprising and the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq brought secularists and Islamists alike into the streets to protest a common cause.
Then, in 2005, the Brotherhood struck a key victory in the parliamentary elections, winning an all-time high of 88 seats. Though officially banned, the organization is tolerated and allowed to put up candidates as independents.
Many of the Brotherhood lawmakers were pragmatists compared to the hard-line members of the group who preferred to stay out of politics. They were more open to working with other groups to forge compromises, and won plaudits from secular opposition leaders by focusing their legislative efforts on fighting an extension of the country’s emergency law.
They also stood up for the independence of the judiciary and pushed for press freedoms, and didn’t work to ban books or impose Islamic dress on women—moves many critics had feared.
“In the past, Muslim Brothers in parliament sometimes made noise about racy books or the Ms. Egypt beauty pageant, and it made a lot of us uncomfortable,” says Osama Ghazali Harb, head of the National Democratic Front, a secular opposition party. “They didn’t do this in the last five years.”
The regime responded to the Brothers’ newfound parliamentary prowess with one of the most brutal crackdowns in the group’s history. Instead of coming down on the organization’s hard-line leaders, it focused on the movement’s moderates.
“The government wants them to be secretive, hard-line, because it makes them fulfill the role of the bogey man that they’re propped up to be,” says Kent State’s Mr. Stacher. “You don’t want soft and squishy huggable Islamists, and you don’t want sympathetic characters. You want scary people who go on CNN and rail against Israel.”
Eighteen Brotherhood legislative staffers drafting education and health-care reform bills were among hundreds arrested. So, too, were the leading pragmatists on the movement’s 12-man leadership bureau.
The power vacuum was quickly filled by conservatives, who in 2007 put out a platform paper walking back many of the group’s more-moderate views.
It stated, for example, that neither women nor Christians were qualified to run for president. Casting further doubts on the organization’s commitment to the separation of church and state, the paper called for a religious council to sign off on laws.
Rifts between conservatives and reformers in the group began to flare into the open. The group’s moderates argued that the paper was only a draft and never officially adopted.
In the 2008 elections to the Brotherhood’s Guidance Council, hard-liners nearly swept the field, according to people familiar with the group. Only one seat on the leadership council is held by a consistent reformist, say these people, as well as one of the two alternate members who would step in should someone be arrested or die.
During this same period, Mr. Karim, from the Brotherhood’s youth wing, says his relationships with activists in other groups were being cemented through online networks. “The new media allowed me to connect with the other” activists in Egypt, he says. “And I realized that there are things we agree on, like human-rights issues and political issues.”
Past partnerships between the Brotherhood and secular parties had been top-down short-lived agreements born of political necessity.
This latest alliance formed more organically, say several young activists who are working with the Brotherhood.
“We just got to know, trust and like each other, even—believe it or not—the Brothers,” says Basim Kamel, a 41-year-old leader in Mohamed ElBaradei’s secular movement.
As conservatives were gaining influence within the Muslim Brotherhood’s leadership ranks, Mr. Karim and his fellow youth cadres were growing impatient.
He says they began arguing with their superiors, saying the group was losing credibility in the street because they weren’t out protesting for democracy like the secular activists were.
In November 2008, the Brotherhood’s then-leader Mahdy Akef called for “establishing a coalition among all political powers and civil society” to challenge the “tyranny that Egypt is currently witnessing.”
Mr. Akef couldn’t be reached for comment, but those familiar with the group’s inner workings say the shift came as the leadership realized they risked losing their youth cadres, particularly after a series of high-profile defections by young Brotherhood activists.
When Mr. ElBaradei returned to Egypt in February 2010 to lead an alliance of opposition groups, many of them youth-driven, the Muslim Brotherhood backed him, formalizing a partnership that had already gelled among the rank and file.
The alliance was uneasy at times. When other opposition groups voted to boycott November’s parliamentary elections, for example, the Brotherhood broke ranks and ran.
After the uprising in Tunisia in January, Brotherhood youth, including Mr. Karim, met with the leaders of other youth movements and decided to plan a similar uprising in Egypt.
A group of about 12 youth leaders, including Mr. Karim, met secretly over the course of two weeks to figure out how to plot a demonstration that would outfox security forces.
The Brotherhood’s senior leadership refused to endorse their efforts at first. They ultimately agreed to allow members to participate as individuals—and to forgo holding up religious slogans that the Brotherhood might have used in the past, such as “Islam is the solution,” or waving Korans.
Nato: Russian hard men not packing much punch
Russia could fight one small war in the west but not one in the east or two at the same time, a secret Nato analysis of the Kremlin’s military capacity says.
“Nato … concluded that Russian armed forces were: able to respond to a small to mid-sized local and regional conflict in its western region; not able to respond to two small conflicts in different geographical areas simultaneously; not able to conduct large scale conventional operations,” the dispatch from the US mission to Nato explains.
It adds that Russia has “aging and obsolete equipment” and “a manpower shortage.”
On a warning note, it says: “[Russia is] still relying on the use of tactical nuclear weapons, even in local or regional conflicts.”
The November 2009 memo, published by Norwegian daily Aftenposten and WikiLeaks on Monday (14 February), was written shortly after mass-scale Russian war games in the Baltic region had spooked post-Soviet Nato members.
At the time, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Romania complained in an internal paper that Nato should have spoken out against the “disturbing” Russian war games. Italy said they should not “over-dramatise” things however, and Germany made a legal analysis saying the Russian exercises did not break any treaty. The US sat on the fence.
The leak comes in the run-up to Russian presidential elections next year and harms Prime Minister Vladimir Putin’s image of Russia as a resurgent superpower.
More gravely, it comes in the context of a renewed conflict with Islamists in Russia’s war-torn Chechnya province.
In strategic terms, it points to the vulnerability of Russia’s vast Asian lands to China. According to the Stockholm International Peace Institute, Russia in 2009 spent €45 billion on its military, while China spent €73 billion.
Meanwhile, the US spent €489 billion and at least another €80 billion on intelligence.
Two leading US scholars in 2006 published a report in Foreign Affairs magazine saying that Russia’s strategic nuclear arsenal is so old that the US could easily destroy it in a first strike.
Former Soviet republics, such as Lithuania are more worried about Russia’s tactical nuclear arsenal, however. Items such as “nuclear landmines” – devices the size of a large backpack – can be carried by paratroopers behind enemy lines and can devastate infrastructure or render whole valleys impassable.
Obama’s Unblemished Mideast Record
President Barack Obama’s foray into Egypt’s internal affairs has contributed to the crisis by embracing the wrong policy, launching mixed messages, failing to coordinate across his staff, and displaying a remarkable naiveté about the Mideast. That performance is just his latest Mideast debacle that drains American influence.
Obama’s Mideast record reads like a Shakespearean tragedy, ending in the death of the major characters. Every Obama Mideast initiative has failed or is failing: Israeli-Palestinian peace, Iran’s rush for atomic weapons, terrorist Hezbollah’s Lebanon takeover, Turkey’s joining Iran’s camp, Pakistan’s uncooperative role in the Afghanistan war, the unfettered spread of extremist Islamists to Yemen and the Horn of Africa, and so on. Now Egypt , one of our best anti-terror allies, is Obama’s latest victim.
Consider the results of Obama’s interference.
President Hosni Mubarak, an elected official, is gone, and Egypt’s Supreme Council of the Armed Forces—the military dictators—is running the country. The generals promised the anti-Mubarak protesters nothing, much less a pluralistic political system.
Human rights and opposition groups accuse Egypt’s military of torture, beatings, and arbitrary arrests and disappearances over the past weeks. Time will tell whether those accusations are true and whether the military is Egypt’s savior, or whether the soft coup that Obama favored is an empty victory for Egyptian pro-democracy dreamers.
On Saturday the military council issued a communiqué that outlines the military’s intentions. It will preserve the regime—it isn’t dismantling Mubarak’s ruling National Democratic Party—and it alone will set the state’s agenda, not the protesters.
Egyptians are expected to cooperate with police by clearing the streets, and the council stands by “all regional and international obligations and treaties.’’ That means the 1978 Israeli-Egyptian peace accord remains intact, which keeps U.S. military aid flowing to Egypt ’s military dictators and Israel breathes a momentary sigh of relief.
The communiqué does not declare martial law. However, martial law remains an option, especially if the generals see Islamists threatening Egypt’s stability.
Egypt has a long history of Islamist militancy that could explode anew, especially after the prison breaks associated with the recent unrest. Reportedly many jihadists escaped Egyptian prisons during the unrest, and there are reports other extremists are flowing into Egypt from the Gaza Strip.
The past three weeks might have turned out differently if Obama had not jumped into Egypt ’s domestic quarrel. His interference has hurt our relationship with Egypt, the Arab world’s core country, and tainted our relationship with other regional allies.
The following illustrates some of Team Obama’s inept interference.
First, Obama called for an “immediate” transition to democracy in a country with a questionable democratic history, no truly representative political parties, and a constitution that requires an election within 60 days. Obama’s call for “immediate” transition was at odds with reality and his call for an “orderly” and “genuine” transition.
A hurried-up election, which Obama says is “What I want,” would create chaos, and besides, a truly democratic election in overwhelmingly Islamic Egypt would result in something like the democratic takeover of the Gaza Strip by the terrorist group Hamas. That is why the Egyptian military opposes “immediate” elections, and so should Obama.
Second, Team Obama sent mixed messages. Soon after the protests began, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton described Mubarak’s government as “stable” and said Mubarak was “looking for ways to respond to the legitimate needs and interests of the Egyptian people.”
A few days later, Obama sent envoy Frank Wisner, a former U.S. ambassador to Egypt, to deliver a message to Mubarak. Wisner’s message was “President Mubarak’s continued leadership is critical—it’s his opportunity to write his own legacy,” according to National Review Online.
And last week Team Obama’s message changed twice. Mubarak promised he would not run for reelection and Obama responded that he favored a gradual change. But on Wednesday, Obama changed his message again, calling for Mubarak’s “immediate” departure.
A Los Angeles Times article attributes Obama’s morphing message to a split within the administration’s staff. Senior administration staff favored a long-term transition that avoids instability and reassures other governments, but Obama apparently listened to National Security Council members Ben Rhodes and Samantha Power, who, according to the Times, contended a go-slow approach would make Obama appear to side with Mubarak.
Third, Obama seemed to be blindsided by the crisis, which is evidence of either an intelligence failure and/or an out-of-touch staff.
Obama reportedly sent word to National Intelligence Director James Clapper that he was “disappointed with the intelligence failure to predict the outbreak of demonstrations that ousted Tunisia’s President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali.” A government official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to the Associated Press, said there was also little warning before Egypt’s riots.
But Central Intelligence Agency official Stephanie O’Sullivan told Congress two weeks ago Obama was warned of instability in Egypt “at the end of last year.” Sen. Saxby Chambliss ( R.- Ga. ) asked for a written record of the timetable of Obama’s intelligence briefings.
Further, CIA Director Leon Panetta testified last week that there was a “strong likelihood” Mubarak would step down on Thursday (Feb. 10). But according to Fox News, when agency officials were asked about the basis for Panetta’s prediction, they were told the director’s statement was based on media broadcasts, not secret intelligence.
It may be that Mubarak delayed resigning because, as he said on Thursday, he would not be pushed out by foreign powers—read Obama. Mubarak called Obama’s bluff, and then resigned the following day.
Finally, there is a remarkable naiveté within Obama’s administration about the Mideast. Specifically, last week, Intelligence Director Clapper testified that Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood is a “largely secular” group and a peaceful organization, not one disguising an extremist agenda.
The Brotherhood’s slogan is “Islam is the solution,” and its strategic plan calls for Islamic dominance and the application of Sharia law. And the Brotherhood’s current supreme guide, Mohammed Badie, in sermons delivered in Egypt last year, said, “Waging jihad is mandatory” for all Muslims, and he called for liberating the Muslim world by “all forms of resistance.”
Also, Obama demonstrated poor judgment by humiliating Mubarak, a prominent Mideast ally. Obama called on Mubarak to “immediately” step down, and then threatened to reconsider America’s annual $1.4 billion in aid to Egypt. But when Obama spoke with Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah about Egypt, the king said he would replace any funds the U.S. withdrew from Egypt. The king recognized that if Obama is willing to humiliate Mubarak by pushing him out of office and using aid to leverage that decision, he would do the same to others.
President Obama’s role in Egypt’s coup seriously damaged America’s Mideast influence, and his administration’s fumbling demonstrates why this crisis is yet another one of the President’s parade of Mideast debacles.
Column One: Israel and Arab democracy
Over the past week, Israel has been criticized for being insufficiently supportive of democratic change in Egypt. While Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu has been careful to praise the cause of democracy while warning against the dangers of an Islamic takeover of the most populous Arab state, many Israelis have not been so diplomatic.
To understand why, it is necessary to take a little tour of the Arab world.
In the midst of Tunisia’s revolution last month, the Jewish Agency mobilized to evacuate any members of the country’s Jewish community who wished to leave. Until the end of French colonial rule in 1956, Tunisia’s Jewish community numbered 100,000 members. But like for all Jewish communities in the Arab world, the advent of Arab nationalism in the mid-20th century forced the overwhelming majority of Tunisia’s Jews to leave the country. Today, with between 1,500 and 3,000 members, Tunisia’s tiny Jewish community is among the largest in the Arab world.
So far, six families have left for Israel. Many more may follow. Two weeks ago, Daniel Cohen from Tunis’s Jewish community told Haaretz, “If the situation continues as it is now, we will definitely have to leave or immigrate to Israel.”
Since then, Rached Ghannouchi, the leader of Tunisia’s Islamist party Ennahda, has returned to Tunisia after 22 years living in exile in London. He was sentenced to life in prison in absentia on terrorism charges by the regime of ousted president Zine El Abidine Ben Ali.
Then on Monday night, unidentified assailants set fire to a synagogue in the town of Ghabes and burned the Torah scrolls. In an interview with AFP, Trabelsi Perez, president of the Ghriba synagogue, said the crime was made all the more shocking by the fact that it occurred as police were stationed close by.
The day after the attack, Roger Bismuth, president of Tunisia’s Jewish community, disputed the view that the scorching of Torah scrolls had anything to do with anti-Semitism. The man responsible for representing Tunisia’s Jewish community before the evolving new regime told The Jerusalem Post that the attack was the fault of the Jews themselves, “because they left [the synagogue] open… This is not an attack on the Jewish community.”
The fear now gripping the Jews of Tunisia is not surprising. The same fear gripped the much smaller Iraqi Jewish community after the US and Britain toppled Saddam Hussein’s regime in 2003. The Iraqi community was the oldest, and arguably the most successful, Jewish community in the Arab world until World War II. Its 150,000 members were leading businessmen and civil servants during the period of British rule.
Following the establishment of Israel, the Iraqi government revoked the citizenship of the country’s Jews, forced them to flee and stole their property down to their wedding rings. The expropriated property of Iraqi Jewry is valued today at more than $4 billion.
Only 7,000 Jews remained in Iraq after the mass aliya of 1951. By the time Saddam was toppled in 2003, only 32 Jews remained. They were mainly elderly, and impoverished. And owing to al-Qaida threats and government harassment, they were all forced to flee.
Shortly after they overthrew Saddam, US forces found the archives of the Jewish community submerged in a flooded basement of a secret police building in Baghdad. The archive was dried and frozen and sent to the US for preservation. Last year, despite the fact that Saddam’s secret police only had the archive because they stole it from the Jews, the Iraqi government demanded its return as a national treasure.
As embattled Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak began his counteroffensive against the anti-regime protesters, his mouthpieces began alleging that the protesters were incited by the Mossad.
For their part, the anti-regime protesters claim that Mubarak is an Israeli puppet. The protesters brandish placards with Mubarak’s image plastered with Stars of David. A photo of an effigy of newly appointed vice president, and intelligence chief, Omar Suleiman burned in Tahrir Square showed him portrayed as a Jew.
ON WEDNESDAY night, Channel 10’s Arab affairs commentator Zvi Yehezkeli ran a depressing report on the status of the graves of Jewish sages buried in the Muslim world. The report chronicled the travels of Rabbi Yisrael Gabbai, an ultra-Orthodox rabbi who has taken upon himself to travel to save these important shrines. As Yehezkeli reported, last week Gabbai traveled to Iran and visited the graves of Purim heroes Queen Esther and Mordechai the Jew, and the prophets Daniel and Habbakuk.
He was moved to travel to Iran after Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad ordered Esther and Mordechai’s tomb destroyed. The Iranian media followed up Ahmadinejad’s edict with a campaign claiming that Esther and Mordechai were responsible for the murder of 170,000 Iranians.
Gabbai’s travels have brought him to Iran, Gaza, Yemen, Syria, Lebanon and beyond. And throughout the Arab and Muslim world, like the dwindling Jewish communities, Jewish cemeteries are targets for anti-Semitic attacks. “We’re talking about thousands of cemeteries throughout the Arab world. It’s the same problem everywhere,” he said.
Israelis have been overwhelmingly outspoken in our criticism of Western support for the antiregime forces in Egypt due to our deep-seated concern that the current regime will be replaced by one dominated by the Muslim Brotherhood.
Representing a minimum of 30 percent of Egyptians, the Muslim Brotherhood is the only well organized political force in the country outside the regime.The Muslim Brothers’ organizational prowess and willingness to use violence to achieve their aims was likely demonstrated within hours of the start of the unrest. Shortly after the demonstrations began, operatives from the Palestinian Muslim Brotherhood branch in Gaza – that is Hamas – knew to cross the border into Sinai. And last Thursday, a police station in Suez was attacked with rocket-propelled grenades and firebombs.
Hamas has a long history of operations in Sinai.
It also has close ties with Beduin gangs in the area that were reportedly involved in attacking another police station in northern Sinai.
Western – and particularly American – willingness to pretend that the Muslim Brotherhood is anything other than a totalitarian movement has been greeted by disbelief and astonishment by Israelis from across the political spectrum.
It is the likelihood that the Muslim Brotherhood will rise to power, not an aversion to Arab democracy, that has caused Israel to fear the popular revolt against Mubarak’s regime. If the Muslim Brotherhood were not a factor in Egypt, then Israel would probably have simply been indifferent to events there, as it has been to the development of democracy in Iraq and to the popular revolt in Tunisia.
ISRAEL’S INDIFFERENCE to democratization of the Arab world has been a cause of consternation for some of its traditional supporters in conservative circles in the US and Europe. Israelis are accused of provincialism. As citizens of the only democracy in the Middle East, we are admonished for not supporting democracy among our neighbors.
The fact is that Israeli indifference to democratic currents in Arab societies is not due to provincialism.
Israelis are indifferent because we realize that whether under authoritarian rule or democracy, anti-Semitism is the unifying sentiment of the Arab world. Fractured along socioeconomic, tribal, religious, political, ethnic and other lines, the glue that binds Arab societies is hatred of Jews.
A Pew Research Center opinion survey of Arab attitudes towards Jews from June 2009 makes this clear. Ninety-five percent of Egyptians, 97% of Jordanians and Palestinians and 98% of Lebanese expressed unfavorable opinions of Jews. Threequarters of Turks, Pakistanis and Indonesians also expressed hostile views of Jews.
Throughout the Arab and Muslim world, genocidal anti-Semitic propaganda is all-pervasive. And as Prof. Robert Wistrich has written, “The ubiquity of the hate and prejudice exemplified by this hard-core anti-Semitism undoubtedly exceeds the demonization of earlier historical periods – whether the Christian Middle Ages, the Spanish Inquisition, the Dreyfus Affair in France, or the Judeophobia of Tsarist Russia. The only comparable example would be that of Nazi Germany in which we can also speak of an ‘eliminationist anti- Semitism’ of genocidal dimensions, which ultimately culminated in the Holocaust.”
That is why for most Israelis, the issue of how Arabs are governed is as irrelevant as the results of the 1852 US presidential elections were for American blacks. Since both parties excluded them, they were indifferent to who was in power.
What these numbers, and the anti-Semitic behavior of Arabs, show Israelis is that it makes no difference which regime rules where. As long as the Arab peoples hate Jews, there will be no peace between their countries and Israel. No one will be better for Israel than Mubarak. They can only be the same or worse.
This is why no one expected for the democratically elected Iraqi government to sign a peace treaty with Israel or even end Iraq’s official state of war with the Jewish state. Indeed, Iraq remains in an official state of war with Israel. And after independent lawmaker Mithal al-Alusi visited Israel in 2008, two of his sons were murdered. Alusi’s life remains under constant threat.
One of the more troubling aspects of the Western media coverage of the tumult in Egypt over the past two weeks has been the media’s move to airbrush out all evidence of the protesters’ anti- Semitism.
As John Rosenthal pointed out this week at The Weekly Standard, Germany’s Die Welt ran a frontpage photo that featured a poster of Mubarak with a Star of David across his forehead in the background. The photo caption made no mention of the anti-Semitic image. And its online edition did not run the picture.
And as author Bruce Bawer noted at the Pajamas Media website, Jeanne Moos of CNN scanned the protesters’ signs, noting how authentic and heartwarming their misspelled English messages were, yet failed to mention that one of the signs she showed portrayed Mubarak as a Jew.
Given the Western media’s obsessive coverage of the Arab-Israel conflict, at first blush it seems odd that they would ignore the prevalence of anti-Semitism among the presumably prodemocracy protesters. But on second thought, it isn’t that surprising.
If the media reported on the overwhelming Jew hatred in the Arab world generally and in Egypt specifically, it would ruin the narrative of the Arab conflict with Israel. That narrative explains the roots of the conflict as frustrated Arab-Palestinian nationalism. It steadfastly denies any more deeply seated antipathy of Jews that is projected onto the Jewish state. The fact that the one Jewish state stands alone against 23 Arab states and 57 Muslim states whose populations are united in their hatred of Jews necessarily requires a revision of the narrative. And so their hatred is ignored.
But Israelis don’t need CNN to tell us how our neighbors feel about us. We know already. And because we know, while we wish them the best of luck with their democracy movements, and would welcome the advent of a tolerant society in Egypt, we recognize that that tolerance will end when it comes to the Jews. And so whether they are democrats or autocrats, we fully expect they will continue to hate us.
Muslim Brotherhood text reveals scope of radical creed
One of the greatest beneficiaries of the unrest in Egypt has been the Muslim Brotherhood.
Banned but tolerated for decades by successive Egyptian regimes, the Islamist movement is now emerging as a central player in the country’s resurgent opposition.
On Tuesday, two Brotherhood representatives participated in an opposition delegation that met with Vice President Omar Suleiman for the first set of talks over implementing political reforms.
Pundits have portrayed the Brotherhood as uncompromising zealots or beneficent providers of social services that long-deprived Egyptians desperately need.
But a translation released Tuesday of a 1995 book by the movement’s fifth official leader sheds light on just how Egypt’s Brotherhood views itself and its mission. Jihad is the Way is the last of a five-volume work, The Laws of Da’wa by Mustafa Mashhur, who headed the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt from 1996-2002.
The Jerusalem Post on Tuesday saw excerpts of the text, compiled by Palestinian Media Watch founder Itamar Marcus and analyst Nan Jacques Zilberdik.
They detail the Brotherhood’s objectives of advancing the global conquest of Islam and reestablishing the Islamic Caliphate, the public and private duties of jihad and the struggle Muslims must wage against Israel.
The full text, translated by PMW, will be posted Wednesday on the organization’s website, Palwatch.org.
“The Islamic ummah,” it says, referring to the supranational community of Muslims, “can regain its power and be liberated and assume its rightful position which was intended by Allah, as the most exalted nation among men, as the leaders of humanity.”
Elsewhere, it exhorts Muslims, “Know your status, and believe firmly that you are the masters of the world, even if your enemies desire your degradation.”
Marcus spoke to the Post about what he views as the danger of downplaying the Brotherhood’s ideology, or expecting it to moderate its objectives after being allowed into the political process. The movement differs from international terror groups like Al-Qaida, he said, only in tactics, not in its goals.
Marcus cited passages in the text that urge Muslims to wage jihad only when circumstances are ripe.
“The Brotherhood is not rushed by youth’s enthusiasm into immature and unplanned action which will not alter the bad reality and may even harm the Islamic activity, and will benefit the people of falsehood,” Mashhur wrote.
“One should know that it is not necessary that the Muslims repel every attack or damage caused by the enemies of Allah immediately, but [only] when ability and the circumstances are fit to it.”
Jihad is the Way explicitly endorses the reinstatement of a worldwide Islamic regime.
“It should be known that jihad and preparation towards jihad are not only for the purpose of fending off assaults and attacks of Allah’s enemies from Muslims, but are also for the purpose of realizing the great task of establishing an Islamic state and strengthening the religion and spreading it around the world.”
“Jihad for Allah,” Mashhur wrote, “is not limited to the specific region of the Islamic countries, since the Muslim homeland is one and is not divided, and the banner of Jihad has already been raised in some of its parts, and shall continue to be raised, with the help of Allah, until every inch of the land of Islam will be liberated, and the State of Islam established.”
Hassan al-Banna, the movement’s founder, “felt the grave danger overshadowing the Muslims and the urgent need and obligation which Islam places on every Muslim, man and woman, to act in order to restore the Islamic Caliphate and to reestablish the Islamic state on strong foundations.”
Despite its universal message, the book attaches particular significance to the Holy Land.
“Honorable brothers have achieved shahada [martyrdom] on the soil of beloved Palestine, during the years ’47 and ’48, in their jihad against the criminal, thieving, gangs of Zion,” it says.
“Still today, memory of them horrifies the Jews and the name of the Muslim Brotherhood terrifies them.”
Elsewhere, Mushhar wrote, “The imam and shahid Hassan Al-Banna is considered as a martyr of Palestine, even if he was not killed on its soil … in all his writings and conversations, he always urged towards jihad and aroused the desire for seeking martyrdom … he did not content himself only with speech and writing, and when the opportunity arrived for jihad in Palestine, he hurried and seized it.”
Wielding a broader brush, Mashhur wrote, “The problems of the Islamic world – such as in Palestine, Afghanistan, Syria, Eritrea or the Philippines – are not issues of territories and nations, but of faith and religion.
They are the problems of Islam and all Muslims, and their resolution cannot be negotiated and bargained by recognizing the enemy’s right to the Islamic land he stole, and therefore there is no other option but jihad for Allah, and this is why jihad is the way.”
Egypt: The Iran of the West?
By: – Col. Bob Maginnis
Egypt’s 60-year-old order is about to collapse, and the world’s largest Islamic supremist movement, the Muslim Brotherhood, will join Cairo’s transitional government and win broad support in future elections. Egypt could then become the Iran of the West thanks in part to President Obama.
An Egyptian government dominated by the Brotherhood would quickly cast aside its democratic and nonviolent facade to establish Egypt as an Islamic state. The Brotherhood, like its terrorist offspring Hamas, would impose radical Sharia law, seek Israel’s annihilation, create a new terrorist sanctuary, and might declare war on the United States.
This dire prediction is not far-fetched if you consider Brotherhood statements and its history, which Obama apparently ignored to advance the Islamists’ inclusion in Egypt’s emerging transitional government.
Obama praised the “passion and dignity” of Egypt’s protesters, which include many Brotherhood supporters, as an “inspiration” to people around the world. He said, “I have an unyielding belief that you [Egyptians] will determine your own destiny.”
The President’s praise for anti-government protesters alienated regional partners such as the Saudis, according to an Arab official quoted in the Wall Street Journal. Arab leaders are rightly concerned that Obama’s push to oust Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak reflects incredible naivete about the strength of Egypt’s Islamists’ opposition. In 2009, Obama demonstrated similar naivete by inviting the Brotherhood to attend his speech at Cairo University.
Then late last week, Obama called for an immediate “orderly transition” to democratic reforms and threw his weight behind a gradual transition with General Omar Suleiman, the new vice president, who promises to broker a compromise with opposition groups such as the Brotherhood.
During the week, Obama’s ambassador in Egypt, Margaret Scobey, met at least twice with Muhamed ElBaradei, the former International Atomic Energy Agency chief, named by the Brotherhood and other protest groups to speak for them.
Although the details of those talks are not public, the results are crystallizing by the hour. Mubarak is leaving, the transitional government is emerging, and talks with the Brotherhood began yesterday. There is little doubt Egypt’s future government will include Islamists and most prominently the Brotherhood.
The Brotherhood is not a legal group, which must change before it can join the transitional government. But in spite of its lack of status, Brotherhood candidates won 88 seats in the 2005 parliamentary elections. This is impressive given the regime’s repressive measures.
The Brotherhood’s election prospects are especially bright because the democratic opposition is fractured and the Brotherhood already commands a third of the vote. Also, Shaykh Qaradawi, the most prestigious Brotherhood cleric, claims that in a Muslim country, secular reformers will never beat those who say “Islam is the solution” [the Brotherhood’s slogan], and according to a recent Pew poll, 95% of Egyptians favor an Islamic-leaning government.
Brotherhood apologists argue the group, which was closely allied with the Nazis in World War II and embraces a theology based on Wahhabism—extremist Islam, does not aim to create an Islamic theocracy in Egypt like the one in Iran. Rather, its spokesmen claim it is a nonviolent charitable and educational organization.
Mohammed Habib, a former deputy leader of the Brotherhood, told Radio Liberty he rejects the suggestion that the organization aims to create an Iranian-like Islamic theocracy. “We want a democratic government based on genuine political plurality.”
But Habib’s claim of “political plurality” does not agree with the Brotherhood’s strategic plan used by franchises in 70 countries. That plan calls for Islamic dominance through subtle integration, becoming part of the national social and political life, and the application of Sharia law. That strategy could soon become a reality in Egypt.
The Brotherhood’s new supreme guide, Mohammed Badie, is not a pluralist, but does advocate violence. Both Badie and al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden are devoted followers of Sayyid Qutb, a fundamentalist scholar who advocated Islamic holy war and was the chief developer of doctrines that legitimate violent Muslim resistance.
Last year, Badie demonstrated his radicalism in a series of sermons. He said “Waging jihad is mandatory” for all Muslims, especially against Israel and the United States. He called for “all forms of resistance for the sake of liberating every occupied piece of land in Palestine, Iraq, Afghanistan, and all [other] parts of our Muslim world.” He also said the United States can be defeated through violence because it is “experiencing the beginning of its end and is heading toward its demise.”
Both Badie and his predecessor outlined their political plans for Egypt. Badie said the Koran should “become our constitution,” and in 2007 then-supreme guide Mohammed Mahdi Akef drafted the Brotherhood’s political platform.
That platform states Islam will be the state religion and that Islamic Sharia “is the main source for legislation.” The Supreme Council of Clerics—similar to Iran’s all-powerful Guardian Council—will exercise veto power over the legislature. Non-Muslims and women are barred from the presidency, and the 1979 Camp David Peace Accords with Israel would be put to referendum, which means certain defeat in the Muslim majority country. And tourists visiting Egypt must “be in line with Islamic principles, values, and laws,” which would put a serious damper on Western tourism.
There are at least five worst-case consequences should the Brotherhood or a coalition of Islamists govern Egypt.
First, the Islamists could adopt a political platform similar to the one outlined above. That would radically transform Egypt’s and the region’s security and trade. Keep in mind regional trade depends on Egypt’s Suez Canal, and vacating the Camp David Peace Accords would return the region to a war footing.
Second, an Islamist Egypt would realign partnerships. Cairo would grow closer to the Palestinians, Syria, Lebanon, and Iran, while becoming hostile to oil-rich Arab totalitarian regimes such as Saudi Arabia, and most of the West, especially the United States.
Third, an Islamist-controlled Egypt woud eventually purge its American trained and equipped military much like the transition that is now happening with Turkey’s armed forces. Egyptian guns could soon be pointing at Americans.
Fourth, terrorist groups would find safe harbor in Egypt. That would radicalize the region and could turn Egypt into another terrorist haven like Pakistan or Yemen.
Finally, Hamas could be emboldened to expand its influence over the Palestinian Authority before reigniting a new war with Israel. That war could become a replay of the 1973 regional conflict, but this time it would include a Hezbollah-controlled Lebanon supported by a soon-to-be nuclear-armed Iran.
These dire consequences just might take place if Islamists rule the roost in Cairo. A similar thing happened 32 years ago this week in Tehran, Iran, which caught then-President Jimmy Carter by surprise. Let’s hope Obama has learned from Carter’s foreign policy fumbling and avoids making more tragic Mideast history.
Mr. Maginnis is a retired Army lieutenant colonel, and a national security and foreign affairs analyst for radio and television.
Islamist Future Looms in the MidEast
By: -Col. Bob Maginnis
The Mideast presents a chaotic quagmire of unforgiving choices for Obama. The turmoil in Egypt, Yemen, Lebanon, and Tunisia is piled atop wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and the civil war with Islamists in Pakistan. Add to these woes the concerns over Islamist Iran’s emerging atomic threat, the re-emergent neo-Ottoman Turkey, the mischievous Syria, the ever-present Israeli-Palestinian standoff, and the global Islamic terror campaign.
This collection of Mideast challenges threatens our national security interests and totally befuddles President Obama. That shouldn’t surprise anyone after Obama began his administration by naively promising to talk Tehran out of its nukes and to resolve the age-old Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Now he must face reality and pragmatically protect our key security interests. These include minimizing the threat posed by Islamic terrorists, protecting Mideast oil, preventing the spread of weapons of mass destruction, and protecting democratic ally Israel, which stands in the Islamic Arab world’s crosshairs.
Obama has already begun wrestling the latest batch of Mideast crises using a bait-and-switch approach. He praised “the courage and dignity” of Tunisians who toppled their repressive president, and last Friday he called on Egypt’s president to stand down from violence against protesters bent on toppling that government. Then Obama threatened to reconsider our $1.5 billion in annual aid to Egypt.
These new challenges may force Obama to make an ugly Hobson’s choice—endorse secular totalitarian-like regimes that support America’s security interests. The non-choice is the emergence of new Islamist regimes such as the one in Iran, a radical Islamic version of totalitarianism that opposes American security interests.
Obama has limited time to influence the latest crises before the affected countries fall into the clutches of radical Islamists.
Egypt is the latest country to fall into chaos and be threatened by an Islamist overtake. Since the republic’s founding in 1952, the country’s army has been the guarantor of stability and will likely support President Hosni Mubarak, 82, and save the regime, especially now that Omar Suleiman, the country’s head of intelligence, is to become vice president and heir-apparent to the presidency. That appointment pleases the military, which strongly opposed Mubarak’s intent to make his son, a man without military experience, the next president.
But Egypt may still fall to Islamists. The man that wants to replace Mubarak is the former United Nations nuclear inspector Muhammad el-Baradei, who shielded the Iranian nuclear weapons programs for years and says as president he would recognize Hamas, the Palestinian terrorist group in Gaza, and end all sanctions.
Last week the Muslim Brotherhood (MB), Egypt’s only organized opposition to Mubarak, connected with Saudi Arabia’s Wahhabi, suppliers of the 9/11 terrorists, joined the street protests, and is now calling for elections that would politically enable the group. MB members in Egypt’s parliament favor an Islamist state, ruled by Sharia law and at war with Israel and the U.S.
It is important to note that Egypt already has a significant Islamist proclivity that suggests widespread receptiveness to a future fundamentalist regime that the MB could leverage. Also, an Islamist strand exists among the military’s ranks that could prove influential if the revolution gets the upper hand.
The latest Pew poll finds considerable favor for Islamists among Egyptians (30% Hezbollah, 49% Hamas, and 20% al Qaeda). Egyptians, according to Pew, overwhelmingly (95%) welcome Islamic influence over their country’s politics, including 82% support for severe laws such as stoning for those who commit adultery, while 77% support whippings and hands cut off for robbery and 84% favor the death penalty for any Muslim who changes his religion.
Tunisia could fall to Islamists if it delays forming a new government. On Jan. 14, Tunisians ousted president Zine El Abidine Ben Ali after 23 years as the region’s most repressive leader. The Jasmine Revolution, which led to Ben Ali’s ouster, began in December after a college-educated street vendor burned himself to death in protest over Tunisia’s repression and poverty—and massive demonstrations ensued.
The interim government purged almost all of Ben Ali’s cabinet ministers and eradicated his ruling party. But no coherent opposition force has emerged to drive events because outlawed parties such as the once powerful Islamist groups are still barred from participating.
But protests continue in the center of Tunis demanding the interim government be broken up. Meanwhile, there are reports that Rachid Ghannouchi, the founder of the Tunisian Islamist party, is returning to the country to reenter the fray.
The ongoing chaos has created a vacuum that will inevitably be filled either by the military, emerging leaders such as Ghannouchi, or a known figure via a hurried election. Tunisia’s constitution calls for elections by March 15, but the interim government wants a six-month delay for the parties to engage the electorate, which will play into the Islamists’ hands.
Yemen is a prime candidate for an Islamist takeover because it is the Arab world’s most impoverished nation, and it has become a haven for al Qaeda militants. It was the site of the Islamist attack on the USS Cole in October 2000 in which 17 sailors were killed.
Last week tens of thousands of Yemenis joined demonstrations calling for President Ali Abdullah Saleh, 64, in power for 23 years, to step down. Their complaints include lack of jobs, outrage over abusive security forces, corrupt leaders, and a repressive political system. Saleh’s government is corrupt and exercises little control, and its main source of income—oil—will run dry in a decade.
Yemen is already host to many conflicts and radicals. There is a rebellion in the north with Iran-sponsored Shia radicals, and a Marxist succession movement in the south. Part of the country is also controlled by an al Qaeda affiliate in the southwestern corner of the Arabian Peninsula.
But Yemen is strategically important to the U.S. as an ally because al Qaeda has made it a base of operations. That organization and its leader, Anwar al-Awlaki, use the country to train, equip, and launch terrorists such as Umar Farouk Abdulmuttalab, who is accused of trying to detonate a bomb in his underwear during a Detroit-bound flight on Christmas Day 2009.
Lebanon’s new prime minister was installed by Hezbollah, Iran’s proxy terror group, which suggests that country is on the path to becoming an Islamist state. Najib Miqati, a billionaire and former prime minister, calls himself a consensus candidate in a badly divided country. His selection demonstrates a shift of power in the region away from the U.S. and its Arab allies and closer to Iran and Syria.
Antoine Zahra, a Lebanese lawmaker, said, “They [Hezbollah] will turn it into an isolated country, ostracized by the Arab world and the international community.”
Israeli Vice Prime Minister Silvan Shalom described the Hezbollah appointment as effectively “an Iranian government on Israel’s northern border.” Israel and Hezbollah fought a war in 2006.
Hezbollah, which the U.S. State Department identifies as a terrorist group, was forged with Iranian support in 1982 and is blamed for two attacks on the American embassy and the 1983 bombing of the U.S. Marine barracks in Beruit that killed 240.
Obama should do everything possible to help distressed Mideast countries avoid becoming radical Islamist states. That may require him to accept governments that are less than liberal democracies, which would earn him criticism, but such governments would more likely than not support our security interests.
Obama’s ‘National Security’ State Union
President Barack Obama should use his 2011 State of the Union address to provide substantive long-range strategic direction regarding our most critical national security challenges.
This time America deserves a speech that sets clear strategies and priorities to secure the nation without driving our economy deeper in the red. Here are six national security challenges which Obama should address.
First, Obama should indicate how much defense America can afford. America’s armed forces are overstretched trying to finish two wars while operating in 166 countries with thousands of fixed facilities, 1.4 million active-duty troops, thousands of aircraft and hundreds of ships. In FY11 our defense will cost $750 billion not counting other costs such as $125 billion in veterans’ programs.
Evidently Obama is pressuring Secretary of Defense Robert Gates to cut defense spending. Defense cuts are appropriate in these fiscally tough times, but they must be accompanied by fewer missions which Obama must also direct and hopefully without accepting too much risk.
The Pentagon’s big ticket discretionary items are personnel and weapon systems. Obama must right-size our armed forces based on our long-term security requirements, such as whether we will need large numbers of ground forces for future troop-intensive counter-insurgencies like Afghanistan.Weapons systems are always targets for defense savings but keeping a ready, modern force requires long-term thinking. Last year the administration ceased placing new orders for our F-22 Raptor stealth fighter because Gates saw no near-term threat. But on January 11, 2011 the Chinese introduced a stealth fighter that challenges Gates’ analysis.
Second, Obama must outline his strategy for hemispheric security threats. The 2010 Times Square bomber incident reminds us how vulnerable we are to transnational-supported terrorism. But arguably our largest hemispheric vulnerability is what Obama promised to fix in 2010 – our “broken immigration system – to secure our borders.”
Our southern border remains porous to those seeking a better life in this country but also to those who threaten our security. The level of violence in Northern Mexico, which pours across the border, is staggering – 11,000 drug-related homicides in 2010, a 70 percent increase from 2009. That violence and agents with terrorist agendas illegally cross the border to threaten our security and violate our sovereignty. It is past time our military do more to secure the entire border.
There are emerging hemispheric security issues that warrant attention. Two days’ drive down the Pan American Highway is a close Iranian ally and a rabid U.S. antagonist, Venezuela’s President Hugo Chavez. He runs a totalitarian and militarized state with the help of Cuban intelligence agents and hosts Iran’s terrorist proxy Hezbollah and, according to the German magazine Die Welt, Iran plans to establish a ballistic missile base in Venezuela equipped with long-range Shabab 3 missiles capable of reaching the U.S.
Third, Obama must outline a strategy to address the threat posed by Iran and North Korea. Western intelligence agencies agree Iran is pursuing atomic weapons. They conclude it is only a matter of time before Tehran’s atomic-tipped ballistic missiles threaten American economic and security interests.
Last week former British Prime Minister Tony Blair, who is the European Union’s Mideast envoy, said Iran poses a “looming, coming challenge” to world peace which the West must tackle by force if necessary. But for the past two years Obama’s strategy was to cajole Tehran with tough talk and sanctions to no avail.
North Korea is an aggressive rogue which twice-tested atomic devices, improving its long-range ballistic missiles and a global weapons proliferator. But so far Obama’s bait and switch strategy for dealing with Pyongyang has not worked and neither has his efforts to pressure North Korea’s mentor, communist China, to rein-in its communist partner. Must we wait for the Hermit kingdom to successfully explode an atomic bomb on Los Angeles or Seoul before getting serious?
Fourth, Obama must establish a China strategy that counters the communists’ rapidly expanding military threat. Beijing already owns a significant part of our national debt, manipulates its currency to favor Chinese companies and is growing a sophisticated, large and expeditionary military that exceeds any reasonable regional requirements. And it keeps its military intentions secret, fueling our concerns. Worse, these developments are especially disturbing when coupled with evidence that China’s next generation of military leaders are nationalistic, independent and aggressive as evidenced by escalating regional confrontations and published military views about China’s new “core interests” which claim sovereignty over disputed territories and entire seas.
Fifth, Obama’s Afghan strategy is in trouble in spite of $5.7 billion in direct war costs per month. Obama’s strategy of focusing troops on high-density populations is beginning to show promise, but other critical facets such as recruiting the Afghan government away from corruption and preparing Afghan security forces to take-over the mission by 2014 lag. But the most daunting of Obama’s war problems is with Pakistan.
Obama’s strategy will not succeed without Islamabad’s full cooperation which is doubtful because that atomic-armed country won’t do what is necessary to deny our enemies sanctuary. Besides, even though America provides billions in arms and economic aid, Pakistan is trending toward Islamist extremism as evidenced by the recent assassination of Punjab Governor Salman Taseer.
Governor Taseer was allegedly killed by a man who saw him as an apostate for opposing Pakistan’s Islamic blasphemy law. This incident, which earned widespread public support, exposes Pakistan’s rising Islamic fundamentalism that is radicalizing the nation, undermining that country’s dysfunctional national government and turning the people against America, especially the war in Afghanistan.
Finally, Obama must address the radicalization of the Arab street. This issue is far more complex than the Israeli-Palestinian stand-off, a common excuse for Arab discontent, which Obama failed to mention in his 2010 speech. Rather, the recent uprising in Tunisia illustrates the problem.
Tunisia’s unrest is blamed on anger over poverty, unemployment and repression. The growing fear is these problems are widespread across the Arab world and could lead to popular revolt among disenfranchised young populations which could overthrow their totalitarian governments in favor of radical, Islamist regimes that might host transnational terrorism.
President Obama’s most important constitutional responsibility is providing for America’s national security. That is why he must use his State of the Union address to outline strategies and priorities for at least these six security challenges and then vigorously follow-through in 2011.
China’s Questionable Military Aims
By: -Col. Bob Maginnis
This week President Barack Obama hosts a summit with Chinese President Hu Jintao to discuss pressing issues, but they will likely side-step the most important – why the communist regime needs a sophisticated, assertive and global military.
The leaders will discuss economic and political issues, including tensions on the Korean peninsula and Beijing’s support for Iran. These issues contribute to escalating bilateral tensions but none more than China’s emergence as a security threat across Asia with a significant and growing global power projection capability.
Policy experts like Henry Kissinger, former U.S. secretary of state, caution China’s growing armed capabilities and its assertiveness need not start a cold war. Rather, Kissinger warns in the Washington Post “…globalization and the reach of modern technology oblige the U.S. and China to interact around the world” and he advises the countries to develop an “overarching concept for their interaction.”
That is sound advice but at this point Beijing isn’t cooperative. Rather China is ravenously soaking up resources, manipulating its currency to favor Chinese companies, intimidating its neighbors over territorial disputes and growing its armed forces far beyond what it needs for regional security.
That is why Obama should use his summit to discern China’s true military intentions and then adjust our policy.
Last week China’s military alarmed the world. On January 11th, hours before U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates sat down with President Hu in Beijing, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) conducted a test flight of its secret fifth generation fighter. Gates, who previously predicted China was at least a decade away from such a test, mentioned the test to Hu and, according to Gates, Hu acted surprised by the news.
If Hu really did not know about the test, it suggests the regime’s grip on the military is slipping. After two decades of military modernization it appears the PLA is pushing a hard-line agenda and becoming more willing to voice its opinion on foreign policy issues. This is a worrisome development especially as the Chinese leadership, which includes new nationalistic-minded military commanders, takes command in 2012.
This leadership change accompanies China’s eye-popping military transformation. The fifth generation combat aircraft, dubbed the J-20, is the latest in a long series of sophisticated weapon system developments.
Last year Admiral Robert Willard, commander of the U.S. Pacific Command, testified “China’s rapid and comprehensive transformation of its armed forces is affecting regional military balances and holds implications beyond the Asia-Pacific region.”
Willard cited China’s submarine force which is now virtually equal in number to the U.S. fleet and rapidly closing the technology gaps. This includes the newest Jin-class nuclear powered ballistic missile submarine which can roam the globe with nuclear-tipped weapons.
The admiral was especially concerned about China’s anti-ship ballistic missile capable of targeting large ships, such as U.S. aircraft carriers. This weapon, the “D” version of China’s DF-21 medium-range missile, combined with China’s new integrated air-defense systems and new power-projection capabilities threaten “archipelagos” in Asia, such as Japan, the Philippines and beyond.
Admiral Willard expressed concern “that elements of China’s military modernization appear designed to challenge our freedom of action” such as its new aircraft carrier program. Beijing’s first aircraft carrier, the Shi Lang (a refurbished Russian Kuznetsov-class), is expected to begin operations this year. The Pentagon anticipates Beijing will build two more aircraft carriers by 2017 to patrol the South China Sea, Western Pacific and Indian Ocean.
The PLA’s air force is the third-largest in the world with over 1,600 combat capable aircraft which includes bombers armed with long-range cruise missiles able to strike targets in Guam. It is also developing airborne early warning and control aircraft for expeditionary operations and has deployed several types of unmanned aerial vehicles.
China’s ground forces include 1.25 million soldiers augmented by 500,000 reservists and a large militia. Its expeditionary forces include three airborne divisions, two amphibious infantry divisions and seven special operations groups – equipped with the latest hardware.
China’s space and cyber capabilities are sophisticated. It is rapidly expanding its space-based systems including a proven anti-satellite capability to prevent the use of space-based assets by potential adversaries. Its cyberwarfare systems already effectively targeted U.S. government computer systems.
How does Beijing intend to use its modern military? The PLA’s white papers, the only official indication of its intentions, suggest its priorities include securing China’s status as a great power, which is not explained.
But the PLA’s menu of current operations may suggest future action. It will continue to conduct internal stability tasks and address natural disasters and accept more international roles. Since 2002 China assumed 22 United Nations missions beyond its borders to include peacekeeping and humanitarian assistance/disaster relief operations.
But perhaps the most troubling missions are those it identifies with its “core” national interests. China uses its military to intimidate its neighbors as well as U.S. warships operating throughout the region. In particular, Chinese warships staged confrontations in the South China Sea with U.S. vessels and over the Spratly and Paracel island groups and more recently it acted aggressive with Japan near the disputed Senkaku islands.
China continues preparing for Taiwan Strait contingencies and vigorously objects to U.S. arms sales to that democratic nation. Beijing’s military build-up opposite Taiwan includes 1,150 short-range ballistic missiles, amphibious forces, air wings and warships.
China, the world’s leading merchant, uses its forces to defend supply lines. That explains its desire to pursue the “string of pearls” strategy by securing forward bases along the sea lines of communication from China to the Middle East. Currently, China has facilities at Hainan Island, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Pakistan and others in the Gulf of Aden and Iran are under consideration.
Beijing’s arms build-up appears to be intended for missions beyond disputed islands and supply lines. Perhaps that is why the Pentagon’s 2010 report states “The limited transparency in China’s military and security affairs enhances uncertainty and increases the potential for misunderstanding and miscalculation.”
China’s rapid militarization, its growing assertiveness, the questionable civil control of its military and the emergence of a nationalistic military leadership present a serious challenge for America. That is why Obama should use his summit with President Hu to clarify Beijing’s intentions and then prepare for the worst – the emergence of a militarized global peer competitor and bully.