12/08/09

* Foreign Ministry: EU resolution ignores main obstacle to peace A resolution passed by European Union foreign ministers Tuesday to recognize Jerusalem as the capital of both Israel and a future Palestinian state “ignores the primary obstacle to achieving a resolution between Israel and the Palestinians.”

* Settlers say will fight freeze with all their might Settler leaders on Monday night expressed their reservations over a remark made by Motti Yogev, deputy head of the Mateh Binyamin Regional Council.

* Baghdad car bombs cause carnage A series of car bombings has killed at least 127 people and wounded 448 in the centre of the Iraqi capital, Baghdad.

* Chavez: Venezuela acquires thousands of missiles President Hugo Chavez said Monday that Venezuela has received thousands of Russian-made missiles and rocket launchers.

* Mullen: US ‘losing war in Afghanistan’ US Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Adm. Mike Mullen painted a disturbing picture on Tuesday, bluntly telling US troops at Ft. Campbell, Ky. – including some bound for Afghanistan – that “we are not winning.

* Russia to supply India with nuclear reactors Russia became the latest country to strike a civil nuclear deal with energy-hungry India on Monday.

* Justice Minister: Jewish law should be binding law in Israel Justice Minister Yaakov Neeman on Monday said he believes Jewish law (Halakha) should be the binding law in Israel.

* Virgin’s Branson unveils first commercial spaceship Billionaire Richard Branson Monday unveiled the first commercial passenger spaceship, a sleek black-and-white vessel that represents an expensive gamble on creating a commercial space tourism industry.

* Netanyahu: Syria dropping Golan condition for talks Syria is now willing to negotiate without preconditions, having retracted its earlier insistence that talks could not begin unless Israel first agreed to withdraw from the entire Golan Heights.

* Obama: Turkey ‘important player’ on Iran In a meeting with Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan Monday, US President Barack Obama called Turkey an “important player”.

Throwing Afghan Security Forces Under The Bus

By: – Col. Bob Maginnis

President Obama made the security hand-off to Afghan forces beginning July 2011 the linchpin to his surge-and-exit strategy. But Obama’s strategy is a quick way to abandon the fight leaving the Afghans unprepared for the mission.

Last week, in his West Point speech outlining a new strategy, Obama promised that his 30,000 man surge of troops “…will allow us to accelerate handing over responsibility to Afghan forces, and allow us to begin the transfer of our forces out of Afghanistan in July of 2011.”

To bolster his argument Obama resurrected the apparent successful “security transition in Iraq.” But he failed to mention a glaring difference between the countries — pre-war Iraq had a professional army and police force to build on; Afghanistan’s security institutions disintegrated prior to the U.S. occupation.

Six years ago, the allied coalition began building the Afghan army and police forces from scratch. Today, the Afghan National Army (ANA) is doing much better than the Afghan National Police (ANP), but neither force will be ready to assume the mission for perhaps five years, as expressed by Afghan president Hamid Karzai in his recent inaugural address.

Even Democratic Congressman John Tierney, who chairs the oversight and government reform subcommittee on national security, disputes Obama’s Afghan turn-over timetable. “Nothing in our experience over the last seven to eight years suggests that progress at such a rapid pace is realistic,” Tierney said.

The challenges associated with preparing the ANA and ANP to assume Afghanistan’s security mission will take far more than Obama’s 18 months. Consider some of those challenges.

It appears Obama intends to build a smaller than required Afghan force to fit his politically-inspired hand-over timeline. Though he didn’t announce an ANA target size in his speech, two days later, Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told a congressional panel that Obama is aiming for 170,000 soldiers by July 2011. But Afghan officials and Obama’s field commander have much higher targets in mind.

Afghan interior minister Hanif Atmar said his country needs 450,000 soldiers and policemen combined, which is 50,000 more than Gen. Stanley McChrystal, Obama’s field commander, recommended. In his August assessment, McChrystal recommended more than doubling the force to 240,000 soldiers and 160,000 police. Obviously, more personnel will require more preparation time.

There are time-consuming trainer and trainee challenges. The ongoing shortage of trainers could increase training time or compromise quality. Obama promised more trainers in his speech but the U.S. military, which does most of the fighting in Afghanistan, doesn’t have extra personnel to accelerate training due to other global commitments. Additionally, our NATO allies consistently fail to meet their training team commitments by as much as half and their trainers’ quality often falls short.

Obama’s promise to accelerate training, given the trainer shortfall, will either tax an already overwhelmed system by stretching out the training time or compromise quality by cutting the length of courses.

There are demographic realities that prolong training. Only 28 percent of Afghans can read and write which poses a particular challenge. By contrast, 84 percent of Iraqi men are literate. The few literate Afghans avoid security service to take better paying jobs which leaves only the illiterate for the army. And teaching illiterate soldiers military skills takes more time than training a literate force. Then there are time-draining language difficulties for new soldiers forced into diverse units. Afghanistan has two official languages (Dari and Pashto), two Turkic languages and 30 minor languages.

Possibly the most significant challenge to rapidly expanding the army is the lack of competent leaders at all levels. The ANA already suffers from an inadequate number of competent leaders. Grow the army too fast and the leader production problem will exacerbate this deficit, especially in a counterinsurgency environment which is “leader-centric.”

Cultural differences between trainers and trainees can contribute to time delays. Few westerners could imagine the need to delay training to repair barracks. But press reports tell of Afghan recruits ripping sinks from barracks walls and using them to wash their feet before praying. Others built fires on barrack floors for heating and cooking, even in buildings with furnaces and kitchens.

A U.S. Army sergeant in Afghanistan succinctly captured the time-to-train problem: “Putting a uniform on a soldier does not make a soldier.” It takes lots of time and more so in Afghanistan. Perhaps that’s why Gen. David McKiernan, Obama’s first Afghanistan commander, acknowledged shortly before he was fired this spring that the handover of security to the Afghans is “years away.”

Afghanistan’s police are in far worse shape than the ANA. The International Crisis Group (ISG), a non-governmental organization, found the ANP’s misuse of power is so pervasive that “Afghanistan’s citizens often view the police more as a source of fear than of security.”

In 2009, Mark Schneider, ISG’s vice president, testified about the “…total collapse of the national police, with a widespread culture of impunity.” There are reports of theft and unauthorized resale of weapons by policemen such as an Afghan police commander who allegedly sold weapons to the enemy. It’s not surprising that a 2009 Government Accountability Office (GAO) report states 46,000 weapons given to Afghan forces can’t be found.

Another GAO study found none of the 433 police units were fully capable of stand-alone performance, which might explain why policemen are four times more likely to be killed than Afghan soldiers. And a fifth of all policemen are absent from duty on any given day and another 17 percent are actually dead or wounded, but remain on the rolls “…so their families will receive a paycheck.”

The ANP warrants a make-over which will slow Obama’s hurried strategy.
Besides the Herculean issues outlined above the ANP make-over must address growing pains common with the ANA such as size (92,000 to 160,000), literacy and language. Also, there is little national level supervision, no apparent vetting for human rights violations and a limited training history.

Only one in four Afghan policemen ever attended the eight week training course taught by some 400 European Union Police. That course is criticized for being far too short and lacking in the paramilitary training necessary for policemen operating in an insurgency. Haitian policemen, by comparison, attend a 28 week course.

There’s also an unexplained disconnect between the ANP and the judiciary. A GAO report found “…few linkages exist between the judiciary and the police, and the police have little ability to enforce judicial judgments.” That report also found that police training curriculum “…does not include instruction on criminal law and procedure.”

President Obama told his West Point audience that he wants to “…accelerate handing over responsibility to Afghan forces … [by] … July of 2011.” Then he promised “We will continue to advise and assist Afghanistan’s security forces to ensure that they can succeed over the long haul.” But is he really setting them up for success?

The ANA and ANP need far more than 18 months to grow competence in order to secure Afghanistan from radicalism which took the U.S. there in 2001.

Likely, Obama wants to quickly exit Afghanistan for domestic political reasons and is willing to throw Afghan security forces under the bus by under preparing them for success.

Please note: These stories are located outside of Prophecy Today’s website. Prophecy Today is not responsible for their content and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed therein. These articles are provided for your information.

12/07/09

* Copenhagen summit urged to take climate change action Danish Prime Minister Lars Loekke Rasmussen has described the UN climate summit in Copenhagen as an “opportunity the world cannot afford to miss”.

* Israel pressing EU to reject Jerusalem draft Both Israeli and European officials believe the conclusions on the Middle East from EU foreign ministers’ meeting will be different from a Swedish draft text calling for east Jerusalem as the capital of a future Palestinian state.

* Netanyahu: Today, Lebanon’s real army is Hezbollah Prime Minister Netanyahu said that the Lebanese militia Hezbollah was taking the place of the Lebanese army as the country’s major military power.

* New Iraqi election law approved Iraq’s parliament has unanimously approved a new electoral law, paving the way for elections early next year.

* Gaddafi: Swiss minaret ban invitation to attack Europe According to Libyan leader, al Qaeda militants are now saying, “We warned you that they were our enemies… Come and join us for jihad against Europe.”

* World Bank gives Palestinian Authority $64 million Bank says goal of donation is to boost Fayyad’s plan to set up institutions for a state within two years.

* What makes this settlement freeze different from any other? “One thing, at least, is emphatically different this time from all the previous rounds,” said an Israel Defense Forces officer.

* PM: Israel ready for direct Syria talks without preconditions Israel is prepared for immediate negotiations with Syria, without preconditions, Prime Minister Netanyahu said.

* Settlers block distribution of building freeze orders Over a hundred police from the special patrol unit gathered at the settlement of Ma’aleh Levona to protect the defense officials entering the settlements to distribute construction freeze orders.

* Can President Barack Obama still count on Turkey? When President Barack Obama meets Turkey’s Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Washington, the talks will require an interesting balancing act to mirror the one Mr Erdogan himself seems to have been attempting.

12/05/09

* Obama mulling Iran sanctions by January The Obama administration is looking to early January as the time to press for a new round of United Nations sanctions against Iran.

* Iran: We need 20 enrichment plants for nuclear program Iran needs 20 uranium enrichment plants to produce enough fuel for its nuclear power plants.

* Internal security minister: We won’t go easy on settlers Security forces in the West Bank will not go easy on lawbreaking settlers protesting the settlement construction freeze.

* Copenhagen Climate Talks Representatives of 192 nations will gather in Copenhagen from Dec. 7 to Dec. 18, 2009, to seek a consensus on an international strategy for fighting global warming.

* Iran warns Switzerland over minaret ban Iran warned Switzerland on Saturday of “consequences” over a referendum banning the building of new mosque minarets and urged Bern not to enforce the ban.

* ‘Turkey to step in again as mediator’ The Egyptian Al Ahram newspaper reported Saturday that Israeli-Syrian peace talks would resume in the first half of 2010 with Turkish mediation.

* PA promotes Swedish initiative The Palestinians are aiming to convince European states to endorse a Swedish initiative calling for the recognition of a Palestinian state with Jerusalem as its capital in line with the 1967 borders.

* Netanyahu forms task force to monitor settlement freeze Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu agreed with Defense Minister Ehud Barak on Friday to assemble a task force to monitor the implementation of a construction freeze in West Bank settlements.

* UN hits back at climate sceptics amid e-mails row The UN’s official panel on climate change has hit back at sceptics’ claims that the case for human influence on global warming has been exaggerated.

* US, Russia agree to maintain nuke pact The United States and Russia said Friday that they had agreed to maintain the provisions of a major nuclear arms control treaty hours before it is set to expire.

Frustrated With West, Turks Revel in Empire Lost

By: Dan Bilefsky – The New York Times

ISTANBUL — More than eight decades ago, Ertugrul Osman, an heir to the Ottoman throne, was unceremoniously thrown out of Turkey with his family. He lived to 97, spending most of his years in a modest Manhattan apartment above a bakery.

But in September, at his funeral in the garden of the majestic Sultanahmet Mosque here, thousands of mourners came to pay their respects, including government officials and celebrities. Some even kissed the hands of surviving dynasty members, who appeared shocked at the adulation.

The show of reverence, historians said, was a seminal moment in the rehabilitation of the Ottoman Empire, long demonized in the modern and secular Turkish Republic created by Mustafa Kemal Ataturk in 1923. During Ataturk’s rule, the empire was remembered mainly for its decadence and humiliating defeat and partition by the Allied armies in World War I.

Mr. Osman’s send-off was just the latest manifestation of what sociologists call “Ottomania,” a harking back to an era of conquest and cultural splendor in which sultans ruled an empire stretching from the Balkans to the Indian Ocean and claimed the spiritual leadership of the Muslim world. The longing for those glory years — even by some secularists — partly reflects Turks’ frustration with a European Union that seems ill disposed to accept them as members. And in a country where the tension between religion and secularism is never far from the surface, members of the new governing class of religious Muslims have seized upon nostalgia for the Ottoman Empire as a way to challenge the pro-Western elite that emerged during Ataturk’s rule and to help forge a fresh national identity of Turkey as an aspiring regional leader..

“Turks are attracted to the heroism and the glory of the Ottoman period because it belongs to them,” said the director of Topkapi Palace, Ilber Ortayli, who, as the keeper of the sumptuous residence of the Ottoman sultans for 400 years, is also a zealous unofficial gatekeeper of the country’s Ottoman legacy. “The sultans hold a place in the popular consciousness like Douglas MacArthur or General Patton have for Americans.”

The current vogue of all things Ottoman, from the proliferation of historic docudramas to the popularity of porcelain ashtrays adorned with half-naked harem women, is sometimes manifesting itself in ways that would surely have made a real sultan blanch.

During Ramadan, Burger King introduced a special “Like a dream Sultan” menu. In the television commercial promoting the meal, a turbaned Janissary — an elite Ottoman soldier — known for their warrior spirit, exhorts viewers not to “leave any burgers standing.”

Ottomania has also infected the nation’s youth; some twentysomethings at hip dance clubs here sport T-shirts emblazoned with slogans like “The Empire Strikes Back” or “Terrible Turks” — the latter turning the taunt Europeans once used against their Ottoman invaders into a defiant symbol of self-affirmation.

Kerim Sarc, 42, the owner of Ottoman Empire T-Shirts and the scion of an illustrious Ottoman family, believes that the newfound fondness for a mighty empire that once reached the gates of Vienna is linked to the long struggle for membership in the European Union. The bloc has imposed tough conditions on Turkey, including asking it to solve its longstanding dispute with Greece over Cyprus.

“We Turks are tired of being treated in Europe like poor, backward peasants,” he said.

The Ottoman renaissance is equally prevalent in the nation’s highest political circles, where the Muslim-inspired ruling Justice and Development government has been aggressively courting former Ottoman colonies, including Iraq and Syria, in at least a partial reorientation of foreign policy toward the east that Turkish analysts have labeled as “Neo-Ottoman.”

That shift has alarmed officials in Europe and Washington, and Prime Minister Tayyip Recep Erdogan will meet with President Barack Obama at the White House on Monday, seeking to reassure him that Turkey has not abandoned its Western course.

It is a sign of the Ottoman Empire’s new hold on the popular imagination that when Mr. Erdogan publicly rebuked the Israeli president, Shimon Peres, over the war in Gaza, at a debate at Davos, Switzerland, last January, he was greeted enthusiastically by his supporters back in Turkey with the chant, “Our Fatih is back!” The allusion was to Fatih Sultan Mehmet II, the towering sultan who at age 21 conquered Constantinople, now Istanbul, in 1453.

Colleagues said Prime Minister Erdogan proudly displays an original decree in his office by Sultan Mehmet II granting autonomy to religious minorities within the Empire.

“The Ottoman empire conquered two-thirds of the world but did not force anyone to change their language or religion at a time when minorities elsewhere were being oppressed,” said Egeman Bagis, the minister for European Union affairs. “Turks can be proud of that legacy.”

Pelin Batu, co-host of a popular television history program, argued that the glorification of the Ottoman era by a government with roots in political Islam reflected a revolt against the secular cultural revolution undertaken by Ataturk, who outlawed the wearing of Islamic head scarves in state institutions and abolished the Ottoman-era Caliphate.

“Ottomania is a form of Islamic empowerment for a new Muslim religious bourgeoisie who are reacting against Ataturk’s attempt to relegate religion and Islam to the sidelines,” she said.

In a society struggling with its identity, not everyone welcomes the phenomenon.

Some critics accuse its proponents of glossing over the empire’s decline and of glorifying an anachronistic system that, at the very least, in its later years, had been mired corruption and infighting. The massacre of Ottoman Armenians in between 1915 and 1918 stands as a particular dark spot in the history of the empire.

“The religious Muslims now in power are trying to feed the Turkish people an Ottoman poison,” said Sada Kural, 45, a housewife and staunch supporter of Ataturk’s vision for the country. “The Ottoman era wasn’t a good period — we were the Sick Man of Europe, rights were suppressed and women only got the vote after Ataturk came to power.”

While some bemoan what they consider the crude commercialization of a nation’s history, others like Cenan Sarc, 97, who was 10 years old at the time of the empire’s collapse in 1922 and is the descendant of an Ottoman pasha, cautioned against idealizing an era of dictatorship.

Mrs. Sarc recalled her idyllic childhood in an old Ottoman mansion on the Bosporus, a poetic time, she said, when fathers ruled, mothers stayed at home and Islam held sway. But, she insisted, “we can never go back to that time.” Ertugrul Osman, the Ottoman heir who was the grandson of Sultan Abdul Hamid II, himself had accepted obscurity. When he visited Turkey in 1992, for the first time in 53 years, and went to see the 285-room Dolmabahce Palace, which had been his grandfather’s home, he insisted on joining a public tour group.

Asked if he dreamed about restoring the empire, he emphatically answered no. “Democracy,” he once said, “works well in Turkey.”

Please note: These stories are located outside of Prophecy Today’s website. Prophecy Today is not responsible for their content and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed therein. These articles are provided for your information.

12/04/09

* Iran says it won’t work with UN nuke agency beyond minimum Teheran will not answer to the UN nuclear watchdog beyond the barest minimum required under the international nonproliferation treaty.

* EU faces ‘last chance’ for peace in Israel The EU must put real pressure on Israel to halt settlement growth in East Jerusalem or risk seeing an escalation of the Middle East conflict that could spill into Europe.

* Nuclear detector set up on Iran border Israeli officials believe the international community is “starting to come to the understanding that Iran has been lying to everybody” about its nuclear intentions.

* Russia and the Vatican establish full diplomatic ties Russia and the Vatican have agreed to establish full diplomatic relations, the Kremlin has announced.

* Climate e-mail hack ‘will impact on Copenhagen summit’ E-mails hacked from a climate research institute suggest climate change does not have a human cause, according to Saudi Arabia’s lead climate negotiator.

* Frustrated With West, Turks Revel in Empire Lost More than eight decades ago, Ertugrul Osman, an heir to the Ottoman throne, was unceremoniously thrown out of Turkey with his family.

* Obama won’t move embassy to J’lem yet President Barack Obama is delaying moving the US Embassy in Israel to Jerusalem from Tel Aviv.

* US and Russia pledge nuclear missile treaty soon The US and Russia say they want a new nuclear arms treaty to enter force at soon as possible, after failing to agree a successor to the Start I pact.

* Settlers gear up for mass protest rally Settler leaders are gearing up for a major demonstration outside Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s official residence next week.

* Nato allies to send extra 7,000 troops to Afghanistan Nato’s top official says countries will send at least 7,000 extra troops to support the US surge in Afghanistan.

Analysis: New manifesto reveals a more sophisticated, confident Hizbullah

By: Jonathan Spyer – The Jerusalem Post

Hizbullah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah this week announced the publication of a new political manifesto, outlining the goals of his movement. The document is the successor to Hizbullah’s first manifesto, published in 1985, and many regional analysts have hailed it as reflecting the group’s “Lebanonization.”

This term is intended to mean that the new manifesto represents the abandonment of the movement’s core Shi’a Islamist outlook, and its acceptance of a new role as an influential player in Lebanese domestic politics. However, this view is excessively optimistic. The new manifesto reveals that Hizbullah’s strategic goals are unchanged.

Observe: The November 2009 manifesto does not differ substantively from its predecessor in terms of its view of the region and the clashing elements within it. Its first part, entitled “Domination and Hegemony” in the English version, consists of a long denunciation of the United States and its role in the Middle East and the world post-1945.

The US is depicted as the “root of all terror,” and a “danger that threatens the whole world.” Washington is seen as in the process of implementing a “New Middle East project” intended to dominate “the nations politically, culturally, economically and through all aspects.” The creation of the “Zionist entity” is described as the most “dangerous step” in the American drive for hegemony. The English-language document reiterates Hizbullah’s support for “armed struggle and military resistance” as the best way of “ending the occupation.” The longer Arabic version is less ambiguous, committing Hizbullah to “liberation of all the usurped land” and restoring the “usurped rights of all no matter how long and how great the sacrifices.”

So no change in the core strategic view. But proponents of the idea that the document reflects a more pragmatic Hizbullah have pointed to the lack of “religious rhetoric” in the new manifesto, compared to the 1985 document.

It is correct that the new manifesto does not include the previous document’s call for the establishment of an “Islamic Republic” in Lebanon. But here an interesting discrepancy emerges. The longer, Arabic version of the manifesto is steeped in religious rhetoric and Islamist terminology. Nasrallah opens his statement with two quotations from the Koran. The manifesto’s first section refers to “resistance in the way of jihad,” and the “jihadi way.” The section dealing with “Palestinian resistance” depicts Hizbullah as practicing “jihadi resistance.” The section dealing with Iran notes the “blessed Islamic revolution led by the Vali al-Faqih Imam Khomeini.” (The latter phrase refers to the system of government operative in Iran, Vilayat al-Faqih – rule of the jurisprudent, i.e., clerical rule.) The section on “resistance” deals with the movement’s “mujihadeen and its martyrs.”

The Arabic version of the manifesto also contains a whole section entitled “Jerusalem and the Aksa Mosque,” which asserts that “to liberate Jerusalem and defend Aksa Mosque” is a “religious duty” incumbent on Muslims.

But in the English-language version of the manifesto, the section on Jerusalem, and all the phrases mentioned above, do not appear. The English version, indeed, is innocent of all reference to jihad or Koranic quotation. On Al-Manar, it is not made clear that the English version contains only selected excerpts from the manifesto. On the regime-supported Syrian News Station Web site, meanwhile, the English version is presented as the “full text of Hizbullah’s new political document.”

The discrepancies suggest that Hizbullah considers it in its interest to tone down or remove the pro-Iranian and jihadi parts of its identity when presenting itself to the outside world. But the full document in its original form suggests that the movement has not strayed far from its original path.

The new manifesto contains a call for the ending of the sectarian system of political representation in Lebanon. This is the final aspect cited by those asserting that Hizbullah is undergoing a process of moderation. But this does not represent a concession on Hizbullah’s part. The movement believes, possibly correctly, that the Shi’a community has a long-term demographic advantage in Lebanon. Ending Lebanon’s consociational system is therefore intended, in the fullness of time, to deliver the country into its hands.

In the meantime, Hizbullah established de facto in the violence of May 2008 that there was no force within Lebanon that could prevent it from asserting its will. It has forced its opponents to accept its conditions in negotiations for the formation of a new government. The new cabinet is set to contain an opposition-blocking third and will also overtly endorse the continued independent role of Hizbullah’s armed forces.

The new manifesto suggests that Hizbullah circa 2009 is a far more confident and comfortable player in Lebanon than it was in its earlier years. The reason for this, however, is not because the Shi’a Islamist movement has adapted itself to prevailing Lebanese realities. It is because Hizbullah has successfully imposed itself upon these realities, and hence may now proceed at its own pace.

On this basis, Hizbullah has secured the perimeter of the Iranian-financed state-within-a state that it maintains in Lebanon.

The new manifesto represents the movement’s willingness to coexist on its own preferred terms with other elements within the country. This coexistence is intended to usher in a “natural” process that Hizbullah believes will, in the fullness of time, result in its domination of Lebanon.

Please note: These stories are located outside of Prophecy Today’s website. Prophecy Today is not responsible for their content and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed therein. These articles are provided for your information.

12/03/09

* PM meets with settler leaders, asks for cooperation, leadership Some 22 heads of councils from Judea and Samaria and a handful of heads of the Yesha Council met with Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and discussed the recently-announced 10-month settlement freeze.

* Putin: Russia has no evidence Iran trying to build nukes Russia has no evidence that Iran is trying to build a nuclear weapon, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said.

* New manifesto reveals a more sophisticated, confident Hizbullah Hizbullah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah this week announced the publication of a new political manifesto, outlining the goals of his movement.

* Lebanon: Hizbullah has right to arms Lebanon’s new government Wednesday endorsed Hizbullah’s right to keep its weapons.

* New foreign policy chief asks MEPs for help Europe’s new top diplomat, Catherine Ashton, told MEPs on Wednesday (2 December) she had no full team in place yet.

* Iran: We’ll enrich uranium to higher levels Iran said Wednesday it will enrich uranium to a higher level on its own, the latest indication the country was rejecting a UN-backed proposal.

* Vladimir Putin ‘to think about’ presidential bid Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has said he will think about running for president again in 2012.

* U.S.: Time running out for Iran to avoid sanctions Time is running out for Iran to avoid sanctions over its nuclear program, a White House spokesman said.

* Afghanistan surge tops Nato ministers’ meeting European, American and Canadian foreign ministers are later today (3 December) meeting at Nato headquarters in Brussels to discuss the new strategy for Afghanistan.

* How ElBaradei misled the world about Iran’s nuclear program This week, Dr. Mohamed ElBaradei ended his controversial and unsuccessful term as director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency.

Obama Strategery

By: Robert Maginnis – Human Events

Last night President Obama outlined his long–anticipated war plan for Afghanistan before thousands of cadets and families at the United States Military Academy. Predictably Obama’s lofty ideas don’t mesh with the realities on the ground.

He began his speech from the podium in West Point’s Eisenhower Hall by juxtaposing the war “of necessity” as opposed to the “second war in Iraq” which “…caused substantial rifts between America and much of the world.” It’s clear he blamed former President Bush for the mess in Afghanistan and by association for the 92 days Obama took to decide on a new strategy.

The president’s Afghanistan end state hasn’t changed since his first strategy was announced in March — “To disrupt, dismantle, and defeat al Qaeda in Afghanistan and Pakistan, and to prevent its capacity to threaten America and our allies in the future.” But his new strategy is plagued with messy problems which will anger his liberal constituency and make conservatives leery.

He announced a three-part Afghan strategy that includes a surge of 30,000 additional troops on top of the 68,000 already there. The fresh troops, which Obama said begin arriving in early 2010, will “…reverse the Taliban’s momentum and deny it the ability to overthrow the government.” Then he promised to begin withdrawing our forces in 18 months.

In history, the only successful counterinsurgencies have taken many years, not just 18 months. It is simply impossible for a counterinsurgency — to gain the population’s confidence, engage them in repulsing both al Qaeda and the Taliban, enable them to defend themselves and their land and convince them to support a central government — in just 18 months.

It took the British to fight the Maylayan insurgency twelve years — from 1948 to 1960 — and they weren’t fighting a religiously-motivated enemy. As smart and committed as Gen. Stanley McChrystal and his troops are, and as skillfully as they will operate, it’s simply impossible for them to defeat al Qaeda and the Taliban in the short time that the president has imposed.

The reality is the 30,000 man surge will focus only on a few key population centers in the south and east. The vast majority of the country will be left to the few special operations forces and aerial drones. This means the Taliban will slip out of the secured population centers, find safe harbor and attack targets of opportunity. How does this “reverse the Taliban’s momentum” and prepare the Afghan government to assume control of the entire country?

And — presuming that al Qaeda is driven out — what will prevent them from returning as soon as our forces leave? Nothing will.

Obama said “I have asked that our commitment be joined by contributions from our allies.” Obama hopes NATO, which is conducting a foreign ministerial meeting this week, will commit fresh troops. That’s doubtful because for most of these allies the Afghan war has virtually no domestic support. Besides, of the 43 allied nations in Afghanistan, only a few like the British and Canadians fight while the rest hide behind high walls and complex rules of engagement that keep them out of combat.

Then the president said “We must strengthen the capacity of Afghanistan’s security forces and government, so that they can take lead responsibility for Afghanistan’s future.” But training security forces take years which doesn’t match his 18 month timetable.

The reality is the Afghan forces are years from being ready to assume the security for that Texas-sized country. Obama’s promise to rapidly expand training will undermine the fragile success that has been achieved to date. The primary problem is the Afghan leadership deficit. Training effective combat leaders can’t be hurried but apparently that’s the mission.

Growing the security forces rapidly will result in poorly trained, less effective units that break and run on the battlefield or collaborate with the enemy. These soldiers will be more likely to engage in corruption and absences will increase.

The president wants to “…accelerate handing over responsibility to Afghan forces” beginning in July 2011. But the problem-plagued Afghan security forces won’t be ready to assume responsibility for a population center in such a short time. Besides, announcing a deadline signals the Taliban that they only need to hold up until the Americans leave and then reassert themselves.

The second part of Obama’s strategy is “a more effective civilian” effort.

Obama said “The days of providing a blank check are over.” This was a reference to the corruption filled Afghan federal government under President Hamid Karzai. Unfortunately, Karzai will tell Obama one thing and return to the narco-fueled war lords for the political support to remain in power. We have nothing other than Karzai’s unreliable words that he will “combat corruption” that’s necessary to build the confidence in the Afghan people in preparation for assuming the security mission beginning in 2011.

Obama also promised to “…focus our assistance in areas — such as agriculture — that can make an immediate impact in the lives of the Afghan people.” There are two problems with this effort. Last March, Obama tried a civilian expert surge but only managed to find one-third enough volunteers because of the security risks.

The second problem is the location for his priority agricultural development. He intends to focus the troops in the cities but Afghan farmers live in rural areas. How does the president intend to secure these people?

The third leg of his strategy is “The full recognition that our success in Afghanistan is inextricably linked to our partnership in Pakistan.” His strategy creates a new relationship with Pakistan stating, “We are committed to a partnership with Pakistan that is built on a foundation of mutual interests, mutual respect and mutual trust.”

The problems in Afghanistan are compounded by the fragility of Pakistan’s president Asif Ali Zardari, whose government is near collapse. Last week, Zardari relinquished his position in Pakistan’s nuclear command structure to the prime minister. What kind of partnership can we have with that government?

Obama said “We cannot tolerate a safe-haven for terrorists whose location is known, and whose intentions are clear.” We know that Pakistan is home for al Qaeda’s leadership and though that country has waged an offensive in Swat and South Waziristan it repeatedly fails to go after al Qaeda and stop the Taliban even after eight years of war and more than $10 billion in U.S. aid.

What assurance does Obama have that Pakistan is going to be a good partner? Certainly Obama understands we can’t succeed without Pakistan’s cooperation unless we take matters into our own hands and pursue the enemy into that country. But Obama didn’t address that alternative even though he did mention that with Pakistan the stakes are high “…because we know that al Qaeda and other extremists seek nuclear weapons, and we have every reason to believe that they would use them.”

President Obama’s closing words were similar to what one might expect from former President Bush. Obama said “The struggle against violent extremism will not be finished quickly, and it extends well beyond Afghanistan and Pakistan.” But then he returned to liberal notions about relying on diplomacy, “We cannot capture or kill every violent extremist abroad” and we will close the prison at Guantanamo bay.

This was Obama’s most important speech to date. Afghanistan is now officially his war and his presidency will be defined by strategy that doesn’t mesh well with the realities on the ground. Unfortunately, his dithering for 92 days over the new strategy appears to have made matters worse.

The president eschews an “open-ended” commitment. But that’s what wars are: if you want to win, as Vietnam taught us, you have to commit whatever is necessary for however long it takes.

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12/02/09

* Taliban vow to fight US troop surge in Afghanistan The Taliban say they will step up their fight in Afghanistan, after pledges by the US and its allies to send large reinforcements to the country.

* EU trying to ‘provoke’ Israeli government, analyst says EU plans to call for East Jerusalem to be the capital of a future Palestinian state have been described as a “provocation” of Israel’s right-wing government by a key figure in the history of the Middle East Peace Process.

* Mayor Arrested, Police Violence in Freeze Clashes More clashes and violence were the order of the day between construction freeze inspectors and residents in Jewish towns on Wednesday.

* Ahmadinejad says UN sanctions on Iran will not work Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has said international sanctions against his country will not work.

* Allies use Obama’s Afghan plan as rallying cry U.S. President Barack Obama’s new strategy for Afghanistan earned strong support among global allies with leaders of NATO countries using it as a rallying cry against flagging support for the drawn-out conflict.

* New Chief Takes Charge at the U.N. Nuclear Agency A new top inspector took charge Tuesday of the International Atomic Energy Agency as it faces one of the most turbulent periods in its 52-year history.

* Rivlin insists Jerusalem will never be divided despite EU plan Knesset members from across the political spectrum condemned a plan by the European Union that was reported on Tuesday to unilaterally declare Jerusalem as the capital of a Palestinian state.

* North Caucasus group in Russia train bomb web claim A North Caucasus Islamist group has claimed responsibility for a bomb that killed 26 people on a Moscow-to-St Petersburg train.

* Luxembourg leader set to extend euro zone reign Luxembourg’s Prime Minister, Jean-Claude Juncker, looks set to receive a fresh mandate under Lisbon Treaty rules as head of the 16-nation group that shares the euro currency.

* European Union Treaty to Make EU More Powerful The European Union’s Lisbon Treaty has come into force with the aim of streamlining EU decision-making.