The Saudis realize that developing a nuclear industry may be good energy policy, but it is also good foreign policy. 

Last week, a news item appeared which should send a shiver down the spine of anyone concerned about the future of the Middle East. In a story out of Riyadh, the official Saudi Press Agency announced that the kingdom has decided to go nuclear.

That’s right. The same country which boycotts Israel, finances the spread of radical Islamist fundamentalism worldwide and, less than a decade ago, spawned 15 of the terrorists involved in the September 11 attacks, now plans to develop nuclear technology.

According to the report, the Saudi regime will open a new center, dubbed the King Abdullah City for Nuclear and Renewable Energy, ostensibly because of “sustained growth in demand for power and desalinated water due to high population growth and subsidized prices of water and power.”

In other words, the Saudis are insisting that their motivation is entirely peaceful.

But it’s hard to take such claims seriously. After all, according to the US Energy Information Administration, Saudi Arabia has some 264 billion barrels of oil reserves, which amounts to “around one-fifth of proven, conventional world oil reserves.” In addition, it maintains “the world’s largest crude oil production capacity,” estimated at some 11 to 12 million barrels a day.

So it is not as if Saudi citizens are in danger of having to dim the lights.

Clearly, Riyadh is casting a wary eye northward, watching nervously as Teheran sprints virtually unhindered toward the nuclear finish line.

The Saudis realize that developing a nuclear industry may be good energy policy, but it is also good foreign policy, especially when Washington appears to be asleep at the switch.

IN THIS respect, the Saudis are not alone. Gulf Arab states, which traditionally view Iran with suspicion, are naturally terrified at the prospect of the ayatollahs having their finger on the button, so an increasing number have begun to plunge down the path toward nuclear know-how.

Earlier this month, oil-rich Kuwait signed a civilian nuclear cooperation deal with France. And last week, the United Arab Emirates’ Nuclear Energy Corporation announced that it has chosen a site to construct the country’s first nuclear power station, which will go on-line within seven years. Other Arab states, such as Egypt and Qatar, have also declared an interest in developing nuclear technology and infrastructure.

And at a conference in Paris last month, Syrian Deputy Foreign Minister Feisal Mekdad said Damascus is looking at “alternative energy sources, including nuclear energy.” He insisted that “the peaceful application of nuclear energy should not be monopolized by the few that own this technology but should be available to all.”

And so we have all the makings of a region-wide proliferation of nuclear know-how. Of course, all the countries involved have adamantly maintained that they are only seeking to split atoms for “peaceful purposes” and that they have no military aims in mind. But can we really rely on the assurances of an array of Middle Eastern dictators and despots?

I don’t know about you, but the thought of the Wahhabi regime in Saudi Arabia or the Kuwaiti royal family going nuclear just doesn’t help me sleep at night.

This dreadful scenario is a direct result of Washington’s mishandling of Iran’s atomic ambitions, first under George W. Bush and now under Barack Obama. By allowing Teheran to proceed apace across the nuclear threshold, Washington has unwittingly created the conditions for a nuclear arms race that will destabilize the entire Middle East.

The lack of American will to confront the ayatollahs and stop them in their tracks has given various Arab leaders plenty of incentive, as well as a good excuse, to proceed down the nuclear trail. Indeed, it may already be too late to prevent this trend from spreading, as contracts are signed and checks cashed.

But in any event, it is time that Washington realize the damage it is doing to its own interests, as well as to its allies, by allowing Iran to continue its mad dash to build nuclear weapons. If the Iranians aren’t stopped, and soon, we may wake up a few years from now to discover that Saudi Arabia and other unfriendly regimes have decided to upgrade their “civilian” nuclear programs into weapons-making industries.

Like it or not, the only way to prevent this is to remove the threat of a nuclear-armed Iran. It should be clear to anyone who wishes to see: The sooner the tyrant of Teheran is stopped, the safer all of us will be.

If war breaks out between Iran and Israel, it likely would last for ”years and not weeks,” according to Bar-Ilan University researcher Dr. Moshe Vered. Iran also might target Jews around the world.

He calls on Israel to internalize the prospect of an unprecedented lengthy war and explains that once the government and public understand the threat, they will be better prepared to find ways to shorten the conflict.

A researcher at the university’s Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, he recently published a sobering paper that based his hypothesis on the Iranian Shi’ite Muslim approach that the very existence of Israel is an insult to Muslims. He states that its philosophy is that “Allah promises them victory” and there is an obligation of Muslims to sacrifice themselves and surrender material goods for the sake of annihilating the Jewish State.

Entitled “The length and conditions for ending a future war between Iran and Israel,” the research paper notes that Iran fought Iraq for eight years despite suffering the deaths of half a million people, with another two million wounded and catastrophic damage to the economic infrastructure, amounting to $100 billion.

Dr. Vered (pictured at left) pointed out that the war ended only when the Shi’ite rulers in Iran realized that the regime was in jeopardy. Until then, the leaders felt there was no room for compromise.

The scenario
He rules out ideas that a quick missile war would put an end to a conflict because neither side would score a “knock-out,” and Iran does not have the capability of successfully attacking Israel with hundreds of long-range missiles.

He predicts it is more likely that if Israel initiates a pre-emptive strike, Iran will play the role of the victim and let the international community condemn Israel. At the same time, Tehran would secretly ferry troops into Syria and Lebanon, possibly through Shi’ite communities in Iraq and with the silent approval of Turkey.

The next stage in the war would be massive rocket attacks by Hamas from the south and Hizbullah from the north. Israeli military intelligence officials estimate that both terrorist organizations possess advanced missiles far beyond what were used in the 34-day-old Second Lebanon War in 2006.

With long-range weapons that could be fired from deep in Lebanon, Israel would be forced into capturing most of the country, and face a deadly and costly guerilla war. At the same time, a massive military threat from Syrian territory to the Golan Heights would require large numbers of reservists to defend the region.

El Al planes to be targeted?
Iran also probably would try to target Jews around the world, especially El Al planes, synagogues, Israeli offices abroad and Jewish community centers. Hamas would resume suicide attacks against Israel.

Dr. Vered points out that there are those who think that Iran’s verbal threats against Israel are for internal political consumption, in which case war is a distant possibility. However, Shi’ite fundamentalism requires a “holy war” to wipe out Israel, whose existence violates Muslim principles against Jews ruling ”Muslim land,” meaning Israel, and having sovereignty over Muslims in the country. Israel also stands in Iran’s way to become the dominant force in the Middle East.

Muslim rulers always have tolerated Jews on condition that they are a small minority and dependent on their host rulers, Dr. Vered explains. 

His dismal outlook sees three possibilities for a quick end to a war, barring a new level of understanding and preparedness by Israel. International interference and the use of nuclear weapons, presumably by Israel, are two options.

However, he explains that whereas world leaders previously shortened Israeli-Arab wars, with Israel usually having the upper hand, the Jewish State presumably would not be in such an advantageous position against Iran. The result would be pressure on Tehran, where the Shi’ite philosophy does not allow compromise.

Pressure would be wielded against Israel if the Israeli Air Force were to bomb Iran’s oil fields, causing the price of oil to soar. Iran would use that circumstance to strengthen its determination to annihilate Israel.

The use of nuclear weapons is far off in the horizon, Dr. Vered adds.

He sees one other solution to shorten the war: an American decision to join Israel and strike Iran.

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