‘Turkish gov’t backed extremists’

By: Yaakov Lappin -The Jerusalem Post

A report released this week by the Intelligence and Terrorism
Information Center (ITIC) said new details have emerged which show how
approximately 40 operatives from the Turkish Islamist IHH organization
carefully prepared a violent ambush on navy commandos last week on
board the Mavi Maramara ship, and acted with the full backing of the
Turkish government.

The IHH operatives were armed with knives, axes and other weapons,
communicated with one another using walkie talkies, set up a control
room onboard the ship, and maintained close ties with Turkish Prime
Minister Tayyip Erdogan, the report said.

In addition, the Mavi Maramara ship was purchased by the IHH from a
major shipping company owned by the Istanbul Municipality, which is run
by the ruling AKP party, it has emerged.

The ITIC said its report was based on an initial analysis of
statements taken from passengers onboard Mavi Marmara after it was
towed to the port of Ashdod last week, as well as findings from
computers seized by the IDF from IHH members.

“The operatives, who acted according to a clearly-defined internal
hierarchy, boarded the ship in the port of Istanbul without undergoing
a security inspection as opposed to the other passengers, who boarded
in Anatolia after a full inspection,” the report said.

“The IHH operatives’ preparations included handing out walkie-talkies
as they boarded the ship, taking over the upper deck, setting up a
situation room for communications, and a briefing given to the
operatives two hours before the confrontation by IHH head Bülent
Yildirim, who was on board the ship and commanded his men,” it
continued. 

Close relations between IHH and Erdogan
The men were armed large quantities of knives, axes, metal cables,
metal pipes used as clubs, wrenches, and other weapons, the report
said. “They were also equipped with box cutters which had been
prepared on the upper deck in advance,” it added.

“The passengers, including the IHH operatives, stated that there were
close relations between the organization and Turkish Prime Minister
Tayyip Erdogan and that the Turkish government was involved in
preparations for the flotilla,” the report asserted.

A journalist onboard the Mavi Marmara, described as having good links
with the heads of the Turkish government and Bulent Yildirim, head of the
IHH, had stated, “The flotilla was organized with the
support of the Turkish government and Prime Minister Erdogan gave the
instructions for it to set sail. That was despite the fact that
everyone knew it would never reach its destination,” according to the
report.

Files found in laptops seized from IHH members contained a letter
written in Turkish from IHH head Bülent Yildirim to Turkish President
Abdullah Gül. The letter requested Gal’s assistance in efforts to
release an IHH operative, named as Izzat Shahin, from an Israeli
prison.

Sahin was arrested by Israeli security forces in the West Bank on
April 27 on suspicion transferring cash to Hamas under the guise of
charitable aid. He has since been deported from Israel “at the request
of Turkish officials,” the report added.

Mavi Marmara purchased from AKP-run municipality of Istanbul
A second computer file showed that the “IHH purchased the Mavi Marmara
ship from a Turkish company called IDO… which was founded in 1987 by
the city of Istanbul.”

“[The] IHH acquired the Mavi Marmara ship from the AKP-run
municipality of Istanbul. It is not conceivable that the IHH’s Gaza
operation could have been carried out absent high-level government
sanction,” wrote Svante Cornell, a Swedish security expert who
specializes in Eurasia, in an article published on Monday.

Cornell, of Stokholm’s Central Asia-Caucus Institute, said the IHH was
“an example of how NGOs are used in the foreign policy sphere,”
adding, “The IHH operates joint projects with the Turkish Agency for
International Development, and is reported to have been used by the
government in order to shore up Turkey’s position in northern Iraq by
distributing aid to populations there. The IHH has its origins in the
Orthodox Islamic Milli Görüş movement, from which the AKP
organizationally split in 2001.”

“As such, the IHH is known as a dyed-in-the-wool Islamist movement,
which has been suspected and investigated repeatedly for alleged
involvement in arms shipment to Islamic forces in various conflicts,
such as Afghanistan and Bosnia. Leading former French counter-terror
magistrate Jean-Louis  Bruguière has repeatedly testified that the IHH
had ‘clear, long-standing ties to terrorism and Jihad’, including ties
to Al Qaeda in the late 1990s,” Cornell added.

Ely Karmon, a senior researcher from the Herzliya-based Institute for
Counter-Terrorism, told The Jerusalem Post that since coming to power,
the AKP party has worked repeatedly to assist the IHH. After being
elected into office in 2001, the AKP government ended a major legal
investigation into the IHH which had begun 1996 and examined
suspicions that the organization transferred weapons and other aid to
terrorist organizations around the world, Karmon said.

In January, the IHH helped organize a convoy to Gaza which became
stranded at El-Arish in the Sinai Peninsula after being denied entry
into Gaza by Egypt, “Turkey enacted major pressure on  Egypt to let
the convoy into Gaza. The Egyptians eventually agreed,” Karmon added.
An Egyptian soldier was killed during clashes between members of the
convoy and the Egyptian security forces.

Last week, the Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI)  released
footage of statements made by Bulent Yildirim, head of IHH,  in Gaza
in February 2009.

During the speech, which was filled with references to “martyrdom,”
Yildirim said,  “All the peoples of the Islamic world would want a
leader like [Turkish prime minister] Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.”

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Secretive Bilderberg Club ready for protests

By: Graham Keeley – The Sunday Times

Splash! Could that be the sound of Lord Mandelson hitting one of the Dolce hotel’s four pools? Or Robert Zoellick of the World Bank? Paul Volcker of the US Economic Recovery Advisory Board? Or merely the euro taking another dive?
That is the thing about the Bilderberg group’s top secret meetings: you never know quite what is going on behind the police checkpoints.
Across the world, secretaries to the rich and the powerful have blocked out the next three days in their bosses’ calendars for their annual gathering, this time at the Dolce in Sitges, one of Spain’s most exclusive resorts. 

Normally, every minute of their working lives is accounted for but, each year, a couple of hundred of the world’s financial elite and the more business-friendly members of the political class disappear from view; supposedly to save the planet from the dangers of parochialism, the nationalist genie.
It is all terribly confidential — breathe a word about it and you’re out of the club — but the Bilderberg watcher Daniel Estulin claims to have a copy of the agenda. The big question this time around is whether the euro will survive. “They are afraid that the countries in trouble will leave and the euro will fall apart,” said Mr Estulin. “The biggest nightmare is if EU members return to nationally orientated policies.”
That would certainly explain why the keynote address is being given by José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, the Spanish Prime Minister. The Piigs — Portugal, the Republic of Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain — are of concern to the Bilderbergers. After all, the club was set up in 1954 by a Polish exile, Joseph Retinger, to create a European bulwark against the spread of communism. It provided the germ of the European idea; Franco-German reconciliation, the entry of West Germany into Nato, the Maastricht treaty — all were cooked up in annual fireside chats.
Now, according to Mr Estulin’s information, the Bilderbergers are nervous that the erosion of the euro could nudge the world back into recession while public services cuts could trigger unrest and radicalise the political climate.
Plenty to talk about at the Dolce, then. The Bilderberg protesters, sure that they can smell a good oldfashioned capitalist conspiracy, will be holding fringe meetings in the town. The hunt will be on to find a chambermaid ready to ransack hotel litter bins for evidence that evil work is afoot. It has been easier to get nuggets of information out of Bilderberg since hotel staff started to read Dan Brown and talk about the illuminati.
Could it be, though, that the Bilderbergers are simply having fun, away from their spouses, on their annual jamboree? The secret of Bilderberg could be that there is no secret. Certainly, the hotel offers plenty of distractions for stressed CEOs: qi-gong courses, excellent fish, fine wines and bicycle tours.
Henry Kissinger, 87, the former US Secretary of State, and David Rockefeller, 95, the former chairman of the Chase Manhattan Bank, are the elder statesmen of Bilderberg — but the leaked invitation list reveals that the gathering is made up primarily of elderly white gents.
Remember Richard Perle, 68, George Bush’s erstwhile Prince of Darkness? He could perhaps form a Prince of Darkness sub-group with Lord Mandelson. Paul Wolfowitz, 66, formerly of the World Bank? Mario Monti, 67, EU commissioner for the single market between 1995 and 1999?
Only the possible attendance of George Osborne, 39, the British Chancellor, will reassure hotel staff that they are not dealing with a Saga Holidays tour. Other members of this clandestine coven include Queen Sofia of Spain and Queen Beatrix of Holland. No doubt their views will be sought on the Swedish royal wedding later this month. Is it right, for example, that a young princess should marry her personal trainer? Fortunately, the Dolce has a team of personal trainers on hand ready to chip into the debate.
Last year Bilderberg held its meeting at the Nafsika Astir Palace hotel in Greece and apparently failed to spot how close their host country was to melting down. Watch out, Spain!
The weather forecast is for three days of sunshine — time for the Bilderbergers to slink out of the shadows.

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Radical Islam Behind the Flotilla Organizers

By: Hillel Fendel – Arutz Sheva

The Turkish organization IHH (a Turkish acronym for “humanitarian relief fund”), the force behind the boats attempting to reach Gaza, has a radical Islamic anti-Western orientation and a history of ties with and fund-raising for Hamas.  

A report by the Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center (ITIC) states that in addition to its legitimate philanthropic activities, IHH supports radical Islamic networks, including Hamas, and has supported global jihad elements. In fact, IHH’s “orientation is radical-Islamic and anti-American, and it is close to the Muslim Brotherhood, Hamas’ parent movement. IHH supports Hamas and does not hide the connection between them.”    
Established in 1992 and active in supporting orphans, establishing schools, building mosques, supporting human rights, and the like, IHH has begun in recent years expanding its activities to European countries.
In practice, ITIC states, “besides its legitimate humanitarian activities, IHH supports radical Islamic terrorist networks. In recent years, it has prominently supported Hamas, [and there is] reliable information that in the past IHH provided logistical support and funding to global jihad networks.”
IHH supports Hamas propaganda campaigns in Turkey by organizing public support conferences there, at which senior IHH figures have expressed their support for Hamas and strategy of armed struggle, and their opposition to the policies of the Fatah-run Palestinian Authority.
ITIC further notes that IHH is a member of the Union of Good, an umbrella organization of more than 50 Islamic funds and foundations around the globe that channels money into Hamas institutions in the PA-controlled territories. In January 2008, Israel outlawed 36 associations belonging to the Union of Good, including IHH.
IHH also operates widely throughout Gaza. In January 2009, IHH head Bülent Yildirim met with Khaled Mashaal, chairman of the Hamas political bureau in Damascus, and Mashaal thanked him for the support of his organization.
In 2006, the Danish Institute for International Studies conducted a study on Islamic charity funds and support for terrorism. Over 20% of the study deals with IHH, and it found that IHH had connections with Al-Qaeda and global jihad operatives. In December 1997, Turkish authorities raided IHH offices in Istanbul, finding weapons, explosives, instructions for making homemade bombs, a flag with a jihad message, and documents indicating that IHH members were planning to take part in jihad activities in Afghanistan, Bosnia and Chechnya.
IHH purchased three ships – including the Mavi Marmaris – of the original nine slated to take part in the “humanitarian” effort to Gaza. Its participation in the flotilla is “part of the massive aid it gives Hamas and its desire to make propaganda capital for Hamas and itself,” ITIC states.  On May 21, Muhammad Kaya, head of IHH’s branch office in Gaza, said there was a plan to send flotillas to the Gaza Strip every month.
The ceremony marking the departure of the Mavi Marmaris from Istanbul was organized by IHH. Participating were Ra’ad Salah, head of the northern faction of the Islamic Movement in Israel, as well as Kazem Sawalha, a Hamas activist affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood who found refuge in Britain. The large crowd held flags of Turkey, the PA, Hamas, and other organizations affiliated with Hamas and radical Islam.

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Medvedev sees chance for new world order

By: Catherine Belton, Charles Clover and Courtney Weaver – The Financial Times Ltd.

Dmitry Medvedev, the Russian president, said Moscow was bidding to help lead efforts to build a new world economic order after the old system collapsed in the global financial crisis.

Opening Russia’s annual economic forum in St Petersburg where hundreds of global chief executives have flocked, Mr Medvedev said the renewed interest in Russia this year was a sign of a changing world in which the institutions of the western-dominated world order had had their day amid thousands of corporate defaults and the threat of sovereign defaults.  

“What had seemed untouchable has collapsed. The bubbles that created the illusion of flourishing economies have burst,” Mr Medvedev said. “For Russia this situation is a challenge and an opportunity. We are living in a unique time. And we should use it to build a modern, flourishing and strong Russia … which will be a co-founder of the new world economic order and a full participant in the collective political leadership of the post-crisis world.”
Mr Medvedev insisted “Russia has changed” in the past year as it sought to pursue a course of “smart politics” that would leverage its competitive advantages in the raw materials sector, while shifting emphasis towards modernising the economy and focusing on boosting innovation over resources.
Acknowledging that the country still had a great deal to do to meet these aims, Mr Medvedev laid out a series of new initiatives that aim to boost its attractiveness as an investment destination. “Russia needs a real investment boom”, in order to achieve its modernisation goals, he said. To stimulate that, Mr Medvedev announced Moscow would introduce zero taxation on capital gains for companies working on long-term investments starting from January next year and said Russia was improving the legal system to provide better protection for businesses against the long arm of bureaucracy.
He added Russia had already simplified migration procedures to help attract “highly-qualified specialists” working in investment and high-tech sectors into the country.
Responding to criticism that Russia’s approach to building an innovation economy was driven from the top down and state interference could hinder development, Mr Medvedev said the state would concentrate its efforts on fostering a good business climate. “No matter how many state-owned companies we have, modernization will happen, above all, through private business. And only if there is competition,” he said. “The state should not tear down the apples from the tree of economics. What the government should do is help grow our apple orchard, develop our economic environment.”
Mr Medvedev said he was cutting the list of strategic enterprises five fold in order to reduce the role of the state in the economy and foster more private initiatives.

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Medvedev Promotes Ruble to Lessen Dollar Dominance

By: Paul Abelsky – Bloomsberg Businessweek

Russia wants the ruble to be one of the world’s reserve currencies as President Dmitry Medvedev renews his push to reduce the dollar’s dominance and make Moscow a global financial hub.

“Only three, five years ago it seemed like a fantasy” to create a new reserve currency, Medvedev said yesterday in a speech in St. Petersburg, Russia. “Now we are seriously discussing it.”
Medvedev, who has repeatedly called for a supranational currency to match the dollar, said discussions with China are continuing on broadening the global options. Russia sold U.S. Treasuries for a fifth consecutive month in April, the U.S. Treasury Department said June 15. The world may need as many as six reserve currencies, Medvedev said.
“It’s something that’s obviously needed,” he said at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum. “Developing a financial center in Moscow will considerably help to strengthen the ruble’s position as one of the reserve currencies.”
Reasserting Power
Medvedev’s comments underline Russia’s ambition to reassert its global power following the financial crisis. Gross domestic product shrank 7.9 percent last year, the worst contraction since the fall of communism in 1991, after the credit crunch sent commodity prices plunging.
If a country wants to alter the world economic order, including the number of reserve currencies, it must become an international financial center, Bank of Israel Governor Stanley Fischer said in an interview yesterday.
“For a currency to be a reserve currency, you have to have capital markets in which you can sell it and buy it very easily,” Fischer said. “New reserve currencies don’t emerge by fiat. They emerge as countries change.”
The ruble and the yuan may by 2015 be added to the basket of currencies that set the value of International Monetary Fund units called special drawing rights, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Chief Global Economist Jim O’Neill said. O’Neill coined the BRIC term in 2001 to describe the four nations — Brazil, Russia, India and China — that he estimates will collectively equal the U.S. in economic size by 2020.
Free Float
The ruble “has as many reasons to be in it as the pound,” he said today in an interview in St. Petersburg. “If Russia really wants to be in it, it’s got to allow people to use it all over the world.”
Allowing the ruble to trade freely is “very important,” O’Neill said.
“Inflation targeting is key,” he said. Without a shift to an inflation targeting regime, the ruble “isn’t going to be part of the SDR. You can’t have it both ways, really, unless the Chinese change the rules, which they might do by the end of this decade. China is going to be so big.”
Russia may “come very close to floating the ruble” in the course of one year to 18 months, Bank Rossii Chairman Sergei Ignatiev said in April. Even so, the central bank doesn’t need to take on legal obligations to stop intervening in the currency market, he said.
Yuan Flexibility
The People’s Bank of China today said it will allow more yuan exchange rate flexibility and reform of the exchange-rate mechanism as the nation’s economic recovery has “cemented” after the global financial crisis.
Medvedev said he envisages a new economic hierarchy allowing emerging-market giants such as Russia and China to drive the global agenda as the world emerges from the first global recession since the 1930s.
“We really live at a unique time, and we should use it to build a modern, prosperous and strong Russia, a Russia that will be a co-founder of the new world economic order,” he said.
The BRIC countries were net sellers of U.S. assets in April, driven mainly by Russian divestments, Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. Senior Currency Strategist Win Thin said in a June 15 note.
Russia may add the Australian and Canadian dollars to its international reserves as the central bank diversifies the world’s third-largest stockpile away from the greenback, central bank First Deputy Chairman Alexei Ulyukayev said in a June 16 interview.
Though Russia is “very carefully monitoring what’s happening in the euro zone,” the emergence of the euro as a currency to rival the dollar’s dominance helped soften the impact of the global crisis, Medvedev said.
“If the world depended completely on the dollar, the situation would have been more difficult,” Medvedev said.
Please note: These stories are located outside of Prophecy Today’s website. Prophecy Today is not responsible for their content and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed therein. These articles are provided for your information.

06/22/10

* Barak: Gaza is an Iranian military base At UN meetings, defense minister defends Israel’s Gaza policy.

* General Stanley McChrystal summoned over article claims The top US commander in Afghanistan has been summoned to Washington in the wake of a magazine article that quotes him and aides criticising senior Obama administration.

* No need for aid flotillas, says Blair Quartet envoy hails Israel’s eased policy on Gaza.

* Former Israeli top spy calls for strike on Iran Israel should launch a pre-emptive strike to prevent arch-foe Iran from going nuclear.

* Iran Backs Down again, ‘Indefinite’ Postponement of Ship to Gaza Iran has backed down for the second time in two weeks on the attempt to launch two ships to Gaza.

* Al-Qaida warns of new attacks deadlier than before Al-Qaida’s U.S.-born spokesman warned President Barack Obama Sunday that the militant group may launch new attacks that would kill more Americans than previous ones.

* Saudi King to Visit Obama Before Netanyahu Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah will visit U.S. President Barack Obama on June 29.

* Moral lapses in the church Churches issue slanted reports on the ME conflict.

* IDF strengthening ties with Chinese military Home Front Command to meet Chinese officials.

* Arab song for kids: Allah loves martyrs The song, sung by young children on the Birds of Paradise television channel, includes the lyrics, “When we die as shaheeds we’ll go to paradise.

06/21/10

* “Mariam” gets green light to set sail All-female Lebanese aid ship to head to Cyprus first, says minister.

* Brazil dropping role in Iran nuclear dispute South American country scales back active support of Islamic Republic in nuclear dispute with West following Security Council’s decision to impose new sanctions

* Saudi King to Visit Obama Before Netanyahu Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah will visit U.S. President Barack Obama on June 29, setting the stage for the July 6th visit of Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu to the White House.

* Iran bars two UN nuclear inspectors over report Iran has told the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) it will not allow two of its inspectors to enter the country, state media report.

* Geert Wilders: Change Jordan’s name to Palestine Rightist Dutch leader wants to end Mideast conflict by finding Palestinians ‘alternate homeland’

* The Muslim embrace Erdogan suddenly finds himself having to defend Turkey from being labeled as a pan-Islamic country and a supporter of terror

* Three Rwandan peacekeepers “killed in Darfur” Three peacekeepers have been killed in Sudan’s Darfur region, officials say.

* Arabs Want to Keep Building Jewish Towns in Judea and Samaria A new poll revealed that the vast majority of Arab oppose attempts by the PA to prevent them from working construction jobs in local Jewish communities.

* Middle East negotiators welcome Gaza blockade easing Quartet issues statement welcoming Israel’s change of policy towards Gaza, but says situation in territory ‘unsustainable and unacceptable’; urges immediate release of Gilad Shalit.

* EU needs persuasion skills at G20 summit EU officials have conceded that Europe still has considerable work to do before persuading other G20 members on the need for a global bank levy and fiscal consolidation.

06/19/10

* US battleships cross Suez Canal Eleven American battleships and an Israeli one crossed the Suez Canal Friday en route to the Red Sea.

* ‘Next flotilla will be stopped’ A letter declaring Israel’s intent to stop a new flotilla of ships being organized in Lebanon to break the naval blockade of Gaza was sent to UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon.

* Medvedev sees chance for new world order Dmitry Medvedev, the Russian president, said Moscow was bidding to help lead efforts to build a new world economic order after the old system collapsed in the global financial crisis.

* Medvedev Pushes Ruble Reserve Currency to Cut Dollar Dominance Russia wants the ruble to be one of the world’s reserve currencies as President Dmitry Medvedev renews his push to reduce the dollar’s dominance.

* UN launches $71m appeal for Kyrgyzstan refugee crisis The UN has announced a $71m (£48m) flash appeal for Kyrgyzstan, where it says some 400,000 people have been displaced by inter-ethnic fighting.

* Israeli intel: Hamas will use cement shipments for military purposes Israel will expand the import of cement and building materials to the Gaza Strip.

* Violence Up Sharply in Afghanistan, Report Finds With an average of an assassination a day and a suicide bombing every second or third day, insurgents have greatly increased the level of violence in Afghanistan.

* Erdogan: We won’t remain silent Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Friday that Ankara does not intend on sitting idly by following the Navy’s raid on the Gaza-bound flotilla.

* Poll: Globe backs Iran strike The residents of several Arab countries, headed by Egypt, Jordan, and Lebanon, support tough sanctions against Iran as well as a military effort to curb Iranian nukes.

* Israeli minister hits back: Erdogan is the enemy, not Turkey Tourism Minister Stas Misezhnikov slammed Turkish Prime Minister Recap Tayyip Erdogan on Saturday, saying that while Turkey isn’t Israel’s enemy, Erdogan is.

06/18/10

* New footage from Marmara ship: ‘Millions of martyrs to Gaza’ Foreign Ministry publishes video found among belongings of Turkish flotilla passenger.

* Egypt refuses to stop flotillas Cairo newspaper “A-Dar” reported Friday that Israel issued a request to Egypt to prevent aid ships from Iran reaching Gaza via the Suez Canal.

* Iran says UN sanctions show double standard Iran’s top security body on Friday railed against the latest U.N. sanctions imposed over Tehran’s controversial nuclear program.

* Iran could fire ‘hundreds’ of missiles at Europe: Gates US intelligence has shown Iran could launch an attack against Europe with “scores or hundreds” of missiles.

* Medvedev Sees Risk to Euro Russian President Dmitry Medvedev expressed doubts about the future of Europe’s common currency and said the Gulf of Mexico oil spill could threaten the survival of BP PLC.

* UN warns of gangs’ global muscle International crime networks now enjoy such an extensive reach that the gangs behind them must be regarded as a significant economic power.

* Death toll in Kyrgyzstan clashes could be ‘much higher’ Kyrgyzstan’s interim leader Roza Otunbayeva has said the death toll in the country’s worst ethnic violence in decades could be as high as 2,000.

* Russia’s Medvedev raps EU, US sanctions against Iran Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has criticised the unilateral US and EU sanctions on Iran that go beyond those approved by the UN Security Council.

* Putin boasts new jet fighter better than U.S. plane Putin watched a test flight of a “fifth-generation” stealth fighter, dubbed the T-50 and billed as Russia’s first all-new warplane since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991.

* Alert Issued for 17 Afghan Military Members AWOL From U.S. Air Force Base A nationwide alert has been issued for 17 members of the Afghan military who have gone AWOL from an Air Force base in Texas.

Setbacks for Obama’s Afghan Strategy

By: -Col. Bob Maginnis

Bad news is building for President Obama’s Afghan war strategy as his plan to quickly wrap-up the war and bring the troops home beginning next summer is in serious trouble.

Consider the confluence of four recent setbacks to the President’s policy: popular opinion turning against the war, our commander asking for more time, our Afghan ally having no confidence in Obama’s strategy, and the Taliban enemy being more resilient than we thought.

First, most Americans say the Afghan war is not worth fighting. A June 7 ABC News/Washington Post poll found a majority of Americans (53%) for the first time said the war in Afghanistan has not been worth fighting. Forty-four percent say the war has been worth it.

The shift in American support is likely linked to a number of factors like growing casualties. America’s total death toll in Afghanistan climbed above 1,000 earlier this month and the war is getting deadlier by the day. The worst single day for foreign forces operating in Afghanistan this year happened this month when insurgents killed 12 NATO soldiers including seven Americans. Last year, 317 American military personnel were killed in Afghanistan and if the current rate continues, 2010 will be the deadliest year yet.

Americans are growing weary of the war not just because of the casualties but its length. June marks the 104th month of U.S. military operations in Afghanistan which makes the Afghan war the longest in American history. The Vietnam War lasted 103 months and Obama hopes to begin withdrawing forces by month 113 (July 2011).

Americans are also skeptical about Obama’s justification for expanding the war—he sent 30,000 fresh troops to Afghanistan this year. America now has more troops in Afghanistan than Iraq—94,000 compared with 92,000 in Iraq.

Obama campaigned in 2008 on a pledge to return the fight against Islamic extremism to Afghanistan, what he called the “right war.”

“I make this decision because I am convinced that our security is at stake in Afghanistan and Pakistan,” Obama said last December when announcing his strategy. But what evidence does Obama have that “winning” the “right war” will eliminate or reduce the jihadist threat, his justification for continuing the war?

History tells us that Western wars in the Islamic world tend to exacerbate, not reduce jihadism. Our latest jihadi threats appear to be coming from Yemen and Somalia, not Afghanistan. Is Obama going to start wars in these countries next?

Second, U.S. Army Gen. Stanley McChrystal, the top U.S. and NATO commander in Afghanistan, has announced that efforts to drive back Taliban insurgents were likely to take significantly longer than planned. McChrystal said operations in the Southern province of Kandahar, the Taliban heartland, “will happen more slowly than we originally anticipated.” He acknowledged the need to show progress before the end of the year to maintain political support in Washington.

McChrystal is slowing his campaign because he hit a serious snag in Marjah, a city in Helmand Province, which he describes as “a bleeding ulcer.” The general’s counterinsurgency strategy’s proof-of-concept was to drive the Taliban from Marjah, their last big stronghold in the province, and then make way for Afghan authorities to take over.

But in Marjah, four months after the operation began, the fighting remains raw. There is daily violence, Afghans continue to leave, the Taliban campaign of assassination and intimidation is widespread, there is still limited government and Afghan security forces continue to rely on Americans rather than taking the lead.

McChrystal said, “The biggest lesson we learned from Marjah was that the Afghan governance that we bring in … needs to be as robust as possible.”

Another American general, Brig. Gen. Frederick Hodges, said, “We talked about doing that [having the governance ready to go] in Marjah, but didn’t realize how hard it was to do.”

Marjah, with 60,000 residents, remains a work in progress and was to be McCrystal’s model for operations in Kandahar. That experience explains why the general postponed the promised operation in Kandahar, with more than a million people in the city and the surrounding districts.

The Kandahar operation could begin as early as July. Gen. Sher Mohammad Zazai, the Afghan army commander in Kandahar, said the operation will begin in July but take a break for Ramadan in mid-August and resume in mid-September. But a person close to the Kandahar governor told the New York Times the operation won’t start until after the harvest at the end of October.

In any event, the delayed operation creates a perception problem for the coalition. The Taliban can claim it sidelined the operation which shifts perceptions of Obama’s surge to the enemy’s favor.

Third, the Afghan government isn’t ready to do its critical part and Afghan President Hamid Karzai is working at cross purposes with the U.S. Gen. McChrystal admitted the Afghan government “does not have the level of credibility that it needs to build the confidence of the Afghan people.”

“We need him [Karzai] to step up and take a leadership role, to get his government to support what we’re doing. But he’s either unwilling or unable to do it,” an American official in Afghanistan told the Washington Post.

It appears Karzai has other plans. Karzai fired two top cabinet ministers last week, which U.S. officials considered among the few competent and honest in that government. Karzai’s spokesmen said the men were fired over security lapses during the jirga, a tribal assembly of Afghan elders, allowing the Taliban to fire rockets at the opening ceremony. But the men and Karzai had a number of differences, such as Karzai’s plans to seek reconciliation with the Taliban.

Amrullah Saleh, the fired intelligence director, reportedly built an intelligence agency which reliably helped the U.S. Saleh, according to the London Guardian, said Karzai’s approach to the war is out of step with Obama’s strategy.

“There came a time when [Karzai] lost his confidence in the capability of the coalition or even his own government [to protect] this country,” a key Karzai aide told the Guardian.

The paper reports the Afghan president believes NATO is unable to deal with the insurgent sanctuaries on the Eastern border. That’s why Karzai is reaching out to Pakistan and the Taliban to settle the war and ignoring the U.S. strategy, which explains his lack of support in Marjah and his resistance to the pending Kandahar operation.

Finally, it’s clear the coalition underestimated the Taliban’s resilience. Four months after the Marjah assault, the Taliban maintains a significant presence in spite of thousands of coalition forces. In fact, “The Taliban are moving back into Marjah and getting stronger,” said Col. Kamaluddin, a deputy provincial police chief for Helmand province told the Associated Press.

Taliban intimidation keeps the civilian population constantly in fear and at arms length from coalition forces. Their assassination campaign has been especially effective targeting anyone associated with government. The most egregious case came last week when the 7-year-old grandson of an Afghan official was executed for being an informant.

Obama’s Afghan war strategy is failing. Patience is running out at home, his concept of the operation is failing in Marjah and will also in Kandahar if not adjusted, the U.S. and our Afghan partner lack mutual confidence, and we face a resilient enemy. That leaves him two choices.

The President can abandon Afghanistan — pull our troops out now — and rely on special operations forces and surgical munitions to target extremists that re-emerge. Alternatively, he can commit to fighting a classic counterinsurgency that could last many more years. Both options are risky but his current short-fused strategy is worse.

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