For some time now, flames can be seen shooting up from one of the drilling sites of Givot Olam Oil Exploration. On more than one occasion, Givot Olam investors have been spotted nearby, doing what appears to be celebrating. The flare is adding fuel to the fire of excitement over the gas discoveries in Israel, which are a genuine treasure worth hundreds of billions of shekels, buried deep underground.

But not even the gas discoveries can save us from the troubles to come in another 50 years.

“Fossil fuel energy – coal, oil and gas – is running out,” says Prof. Arie Dubi of the Nuclear Engineering Department of Ben-Gurion University of the Negev. “All the researchers in the field have known this for a long time. I’m not a prophet; this is the real situation. It doesn’t matter what Yam Tethys finds or what [Delek Group controlling shareholder] Yitzhak Tshuva discovers. It’s insignificant on the global level. This type of energy will be gone within 50 to 100 years.”

Tshuva’s discovery might be insignificant in global terms, but in Israeli terms?

“It’s nothing. It’s meaningless. Israel must continue for a long time. We’re talking about the future of our children and grandchildren. Oil energy is running out, and that’s it, there won’t be any more. We’re already seeing that to extract oil we have to go five kilometers offshore, like British Petroleum. If there were enough oil they wouldn’t be drilling in the middle of the ocean, which is very difficult, and we can see the results.”

Dubi speaks openly about his concern for successive generations, hitting the table with his fist. “We must think ahead,” he warns. “A world without oil is a world without food, and that means a world war in which billions of people will die.”

You make it sound like Judgment Day.

“Yes, but what can I do? I do not see a different reality. Will we go back to eating bananas off the trees? No. Wars will break out, people will take the little fuel remaining and fight over it. You don’t need to be a genius to understand this. After all, what do people do in times of want? They go and take from what’s there.”

What about the alternatives that are already being developed, like solar energy?

“Anyone hanging their hope on that might as well hang themselves as well. I have nothing against wind and solar energy, they’re great and we need them. But all the alternative energy sources (such as solar, wind and wave ) put together can’t even supply 40% of what we need.”

Everything we need

Dubi, 65, a father of four and grandfather of nine, has a Ph.D. in physics. He once founded a startup and developed a program for predicting system behavior that draws on the mathematics of nuclear physics. He has published three scientific books to date, one of which has been translated into Chinese.

Dubi offers more than apocalyptic forecasts. His alternative to alternative energy sources, which could save us from impending disaster, is nuclear power.

What is nuclear energy, exactly ?

“Atoms are surrounded by electrons containing energy that we recognize as chemical, like fire,” Dubi explains.

“And there is energy inside the atom, which is released when neutrons hit the nucleus of the atom and split it. This fission produces energy. The mass of the results of fission is smaller than the original mass; the difference in mass turns heat into energy. Atomic energy alone can supply 100% of the world’s needs.”

If we’ve discovered the ultimate solution, what’s stopping us?

“Terrible ignorance, mostly. There is a myth of fear surrounding nuclear energy. Our first encounter with it was at Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The first time people were aware of nuclear energy they saw 400,000 deaths. But this is only one side of this energy. It’s like the difference between fire in a kitchen gas range and a hand grenade: Both produce chemical energy, but the gas at home helps us. We don’t fear it or worry that it will explode. It’s hard to explain this to people.”

The explosion at the nuclear plant in Chernobyl, Ukraine, on April 26, 1986 also contributed to people’s fears about nuclear energy. Caused by human error combined with lax safety precautions during an experiment, it led to a partial meltdown of the reactor’s core and the release of radiation.

Chernobyl was one of the worst ecological disasters of the modern age, resulting, by some estimates, in 30 times more radioactive fallout than the atomic bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki at the end of World War II. The effects of the global panic set off by Chernobyl are still visible today, nearly 25 years later.

Nonetheless, Dubi says, countries that have overcome this fear have been successfully producing electricity from nuclear energy for years. France is the most prominent example, with 80% of its electricity supplied by nuclear reactors. “France’s entire economy is based on nuclear power,” Dubi says. “It supplies electricity to all of Europe. If France turns off the main switch, northern Italy won’t have electricity.”

France is not alone. Nuclear plants provide electricity in the United States, Europe and Asia, and new reactors are being built in many countries around the world. Dubi says the Czech Republic is building three reactors, and even Abu Dhabi and Saudi Arabia are moving in this direction.

Israel’s missed opportunity

Why not Israel?

“That’s a tough question. Let’s start with the fact that nothing is done in Israel. Have we solved our water shortage? If it’s possible to do nothing, we do nothing. Why? It’s political. And politicians live best when they do nothing. When they do something there’s complaints and shouting. Ehud Olmert went to war and almost got killed over it. Had he done nothing, maybe he would have been okay. In Israel, first of all, nothing is done. Then there’s the security problem. People are afraid even when there’s no reason. Someone once asked me, ‘Say, is a nuclear reactor strong enough to resist an atomic bomb?’ And I said: ‘Someone’s throwing an atomic bomb at you and you’re worried about the reactor?’ It just goes to show the level of stupidity and fear.”

Dubi is convinced that by failing to build nuclear power plants Israel is missing the boat. “There are three types of reactors in the world today: a giant, 1,000-3,000 megawatt capacity one; a small, 10 megawatt reactor, buried in the backyard and that can provide electricity to the home for 40 years. The Americans and the Chinese use these. The third is a medium-size, 200 megawatt reactor that can supply power to an entire region such as the Negev and the Arava Desert.” The latter type of reactor can also be coupled with water desalination plants, Dubi explains, and that is the missed opportunity.

“Just imagine a canal from the Red Sea to the Dead Sea, in which water is desalinated; we could turn the Arava into an oasis.” Israel could also get into the business of manufacturing these dual-use reactors, Dubi says.

How much do they cost to develop?

“There are still no exact figures because we’re not there yet. But let’s say we had to invest $20 billion in the project, so what? If a reactor sells for $1 billion and you can sell 20,000 of them, doesn’t that pay?.”

It won’t be easy to get approval in Israel for that kind of spending.

“True, but we don’t have to do it alone. We can cooperate with other countries. Many countries want to get into this field. It’s an opportunity to develop something that would solve our electricity and energy problems for the future, provide jobs to 1,000 engineers and earn a lot of money for the state.”

Isn’t there a danger that a state could make an atomic bomb using a civilian nuclear reactor?

“No. Even if it were theoretically possible to create enriched nuclear material like plutonium in a civilian reactor, it’s so difficult and complicated that there’s no cause for concern. Even if you take the best scientists in the world and they try to do it together, they won’t succeed. The enrichment being carried out by the Iranians, for example, is a million times easier. Nuclear fuel is enriched to between 4% and 12%, but nuclear explosive material requires 99% enrichment.” No one will ever be able to remove fuel from a nuclear power plant and use it to make an atom bomb, Dubi says.

So there is a chance that a nuclear power plant could be built in Israel?

“I’ve discussed it with many people, including National Infrastructure Minister Uzi Landau. The ministry’s Chief Scientist’s Office issued a report saying that within 30 years, Israel will require such a reactor. That is, they believe we must start to act in 25 years. But one of our biggest problems is that the government is oriented toward the private market. It wants to privatize whatever it can, reactors too. But I told the chief scientist that privatizing reactors is like replacing the army on the northern border with a private security company. It’s about as logical. An important matter like energy cannot be left to private hands, where the only consideration will be profit. Perhaps a reactor won’t be as profitable as they like, but it will give life.”

‘Disaster awaits’

Dubi is worried about the future of the planet as well as about the disappearance of fossil fuel reserves. “The danger is not only the lack of fuel,” he says, “but also population growth. People have no idea of the disaster that awaits us. In 1950, the global population was 2.25 billion. Now, 60 years later, there are 6.25 billion people. In historical terms, between the time of the first human beings and cavemen to the first half of the 20th century, it took us thousands of years to reach 2.25 billion, and just another half century later the figure has nearly tripled. In another 50 years there will be 13 billion people,” he says.

According to Dubi, the consequences of that population boom will make the attempts by refugees and labor migrants to cross the Egyptian border into Israel illegally seem like “nothing,” explaining, “Millions will be migrating, looking for food. At the same time there will be an energy problem as the population keeps growing. There will be a big war, billions will die and the world will start over.”

* Barak approves purchase of F-35s Israel to receive first 20 fighters in 2015, cost estimated at $2.75b.

* Israel to reject preconditions Abbas to hold PLO C’tee meeting before deciding on direct talks.

* Arab League Lobbies to End Israel’s Nuclear Ambiguity Arab League nations are lobbying the United States and other Western powers to end Israel’s nuclear ambiguity.

* China passes Japan as No. 2 economy Beijing’s $5 trillion GDP still far behind US’s $15 trillion.

* Petraeus hedges on US exit date from Afghanistan The new commander of foreign forces in Afghanistan, Gen David Petraeus, says he will not be bound by a 2011 target date to start withdrawing US troops.

* N.Korea warns of severest punishment over war games North Korea’s military threatened Sunday to launch the “severest punishment” against South Korea for staging massive joint war games with the United States this week.

* Attacks in Iraq Rise During Ramadan Another violent day following insurgents’ threats to escalate their attacks during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan.

* Muslims Set Aside $30 Million for Keeping Jerusalem Muslim The Holy Al Quds Fund announced that it will invest $30 million in projects for “safeguarding the Arabic and Islamic nature” of the Old City of Jerusalem.

* US warns Turkey that strained Israel ties could hinder arms deal Obama tells Turkish prime minister that Ankara’s position on Israel and Iran could lower its chances of obtaining US weapons, the Financial Times reports.

* Ground Zero mosque must be built Hamas official: Muslims have right to build just like Jews.

“After I visited Israel and wrote “The Shadow Over Israel” for Haaretz, many people asked me what “my position” was. “Position” is a military term and spatial metaphor, and space and time and functions of each other: positions alter as events unfold — but “my position” is that I wish the best outcome for all. But what is that outcome, and what are the alternatives?

Picture a minor prophet. Perhaps he’d be working today as an astrologer. He’s looking towards Israel and Palestine, consulting his charts and stars, getting a handle on the future. But the future is never single — there are too many variables – so what he sees is a number of futures.

In the first one, there’s no Israel: it’s been destroyed in war and all the Israelis have been killed. (Unlikely, but not impossible.) In the second, there’s no Palestine: it’s been merged with Israel, and the Palestinians either slaughtered or driven beyond its borders. Israel has become completely isolated: international opinion has been outraged, boycott measures have been successful, financial aid from the U.S. — both public and private – has evaporated, and the United States government, weakened by the huge debt caused by its Iraqi and Afghani wars and lured by the promise of mineral wealth and oil, has cooled towards Israel and swung towards entente with the Muslim world. Israel has become like North Korea or Burma – an embattled military state – and civilian rights have suffered accordingly. The moderate Israelis have emigrated, and live as exiles, in a state of bitterness over wasted opportunities and blighted dreams.

In the third future there’s one state, but a civil war has resulted, since the enlarged population couldn’t agree on a common flag, a common history, a common set of laws, or a common set of commemoration days — “victory” for some being “catastrophe” for others. In the fourth, the one-state solution has had better results: it’s a true one-person, one-vote secular democracy, with equal rights for all. (Again, unlikely in the immediate future, but not impossible in the long run.)

In the fifth future, neither Israel nor Palestine exist: several atomic bombs have cleared the land of human beings, though wildlife is flourishing, as at Chernobyl. In the sixth, climate change has turned the area into a waterless desert.

But there’s another future: the seventh future. In this future there are two states, “Israel” and “Palestine.” Both are flourishing, and both are members of a regional council that deals with matters affecting the whole area. Trade flows harmoniously between the two viable states, joint development enterprises have been established, know-how is being shared, and, as in Northern Ireland, peace is paying dividends.

That, surely, is a desirable outcome, thinks the stargazer; but how was it achieved? Since he has the gift of virtual time travel, he leaps into the seventh future and looks back at the steps taken to get there.

The impetus came from within Israel. The Israeli leaders saw that the wind had shifted: it was now blowing against the earlier policy of crushing force and the appropriation of occupied lands. What had caused this change? Was it the international reaction to the destructive Cast Lead invasion of Gaza? The misjudged killing of flotilla activists? The gathering boycott activities in the United States and Europe? The lobbying of organizations such as J-Street? The 2010 World Zionist Congress vote to support a settlement freeze and endorse a two-state solution?

For whatever reasons, Israel had lost control of its own story. It was no longer Jack confronting a big bad Giant: the narrative of the small country struggling bravely against overwhelming odds had moved over to the Palestinians. The mantra, “Plant a tree in Israel,” was no longer respectable, as it evoked images of bulldozers knocking down Palestinian olive groves. Israel could not continue along its current path without altering its own self-image beyond recognition. The leadership read the signs correctly and decided to act before a peaceful resolution slipped forever beyond reach. Leaders are supposed to guide their people towards a better and more secure future, they thought: not over the edge of a cliff.

First, the Golan Heights was returned to Syria under a pact that created a demilitarized zone with international supervision. The few Israeli inhabitants were allowed to remain if they wished, though they then paid taxes to Syria.

Then, with the help of a now-friendly Syria, Hamas was invited to the peace negotiations. The enlightened leaders – with an eye to Northern Ireland — realized that they couldn’t set as a precondition something that remained to be negotiated, so they didn’t demand the pre-recognition of Israel as a Jewish state. Hamas, to the surprise of many, accepted the invitation, as it had nothing to lose by doing so. Peace was made between Fatah and Hamas, and Palestine was thus able to present a single negotiating team.

The negotiations were complex, but people worked hard not to lose their tempers. Several North American First Nations negotiators were invited as coaches, as they had much long-term experience and patience, and –remembering South Africa – they knew that yelling and denouncing would not accomplish anything. As soon as they stepped off the plane, they smudged with sage to cleanse the region of its buildup of fear, anger, and hatred, and despair, and with sweetgrass to attract positive emotions.

The agreement took less time than expected, as happens when people are serious. Then the Occupation – disastrous for those in both countries, both physically and morally — was over, and Palestinian independence was declared. A mutual defense pact was signed, along with a trade and development pact. As Israel had realized that it could not rest its foundation on international law while also violating that law, the borders reverted to those of 1967, with a few land swaps along the edges. Jerusalem was declared an international city, with both an Israeli parliament building and a Palestinian one, and access to the various holy sites for believers.

Gaza was joined to the West Bank by corridors, as in the East/West Germany of old; the ports were opened, and the fishing boats could sail once more. Development money poured in, creating full employment. The water situation was rectified, with fair-access agreements signed, pollution cleaned up, and more fresh water created through a new cheap solar-driven desalination process.

What about the difficult matter of the Settlements? The First Nations advisors cited some of their own precedents: settlers could stay in Palestine if they wished, under lease agreements. The leases and taxes paid by the settlers were a source of income to the Palestinian state, and as their products were no longer boycotted, the Settlements did better. On the whole, peace and security reigned. There was even a shared Memorial Day, in which all those fallen in past wars were honoured.

The seventh future is within reach — the stars favour it — but the stargazer knows that many prefer the status quo: there can be advantage as well as profit in conflict. However, change often comes abruptly, like the fall of the Berlin Wall, the storming of the Bastille, or the end of Apartheid. The amount of blood shed during such transitions – from none to a great deal — depends on the wisdom of the leadership.

How to promote such wisdom? It’s a prophet’s traditional duty to lay out the alternatives – the good futures, and also the bad ones. Prophets – unlike yes-men — tell the powerful not what they want to hear, but what they need to hear. “How can I put this?” thinks the stargazer. “Something beginning with the handwriting on the wall…?”

Sephardi Chief Rabbi Shlomo Amar on Thursday expressed concern that Reform Jews are taking over Israel, in comments he wrote to mark the Jewish month of Elul.

“Those who call themselves liberals and reformers and their friends and supporters” brought us to “our spiritual low point,” in which violence is rampant immodesty is acceptable, and assimilation is at a high even in Israel, he wrote.

“They now have their claws in the nation of Zion, and are trying to impose the lifestyle of other nations on us. They established legions of warriors in the Land of Israel, whose purpose is to remove Torah from Israel.”

The chief rabbi added that every Jew must try to influence Knesset members and ministers, and pray for these “lost sons to return to the right path,” because they are “our brothers, our flesh and blood, even if they are our rivals.”

Yizhar Hess, Director of the Masorti (Conservative) Movement, said: “Rabbi Amar is correct. Non-Orthodox Judaism – conservative and reform – have a real place in Israeli society. Hundreds of communities throughout Israel are learning that the Orthodox monopoly will crash…because it became irrelevant for a growing public.”

In search of  freedom to worship and equal opportunities, Jacob Barsimson set sail from Holland to American on July 8, 1654, to become the first Jew to set foot in New York. The Pear Tree  docked in New Amsterdam on August 22 that same year, and 23 Jews from Dutch Brazil followed Barsimson’s example and went on to establish the first Jewish settlement in the United States.

However, Barsimson and the others found that New Amsterdam was no different from whence they came. Governor Peter Stuyvesant treated them as separate citizens; they couldn’t engage in retail trade, practice handicrafts, hold public position, serve in the militia or practice their religion in a synagogue or in gatherings.

Along with the other Jews, Barsimson, presented a petition to Gov. Stuyvesant for the right to buy a burial plot, which was denied because there was no immediate need for it. However later, under pressure from Holland’s Amsterdam Jews, Stuyvesant granted them this right.

On September 22, 1654, Stuyvesant wrote to the Amsterdam Chamber of Commerce to complain about the presence of Jewish refugees from Brazil who had recently arrived in New Amsterdam. He felt that they were blasphemers of the name Christ and that they would infect the colony with trouble.

In the meantime, Barsimson and other New Amsterdam Jews kept putting pressure on Stuyvesant for full citizenship rights. They insisted on the right to serve in the militia and guard the walls of the city to protect the settlers and cattle, which were kept inside the walls at night, from the raids and attacks of the Indians and the New England settlers. Thanks to several influential Jews in Dutch West India Company who pressured the Governor, Jews received these rights in April, 1655.

In 1664, When the British conquered New Amsterdam and changed its name to New York, the Jewish settlers continued to enjoy their previous rights. However, it was only in 1697 that a Simon Valentine became the first documented Jewish landowner, which entitled him to vote.

Thanks to the actions of these brave settlers, today’s New York Jewish population is some two million, second only to Israel.