North Korea’s atomic-tipped missile threat against the American homeland is at a critical stage. But President Barack Obama’s North Korea policy is lackluster—more talk while feeding the rogue’s population—which may help Communist China but could cripple America’s security.
The North Korean threat is reaching a tipping point with two new reports. One comes from Raymond Colston, the national intelligence manager for Korea at the National Intelligence Director’s Office. Last week Colston testified on Capitol Hill that North Korea will eventually “be capable of targeting the U.S., and these missiles will be capable of having nuclear weapons.”
The second report is a leaked United Nations account by a panel of experts monitoring the arms embargo against North Korea. The 81-page document given to the Security Council last week establishes that North Korea continues to proliferate weapons of mass destruction (WMD) technologies “to numerous customers in the Middle East [primarily Iran] and South Asia.”
This breaking news comes on the cusp of other regimes’ WMD developments. Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast, according to Fars News Agency, disputes the UN report, arguing that Tehran’s missile capabilities are so advanced it does not need outside help. But that statement is contradicted by a report in the May 16 edition of the Japanese newspaper Mainichi Shimbun that contends North Korea recently sent more than 200 people to Iran to transfer military technology for developing Iran’s nuclear and missile programs.
At home, North Korea just finished constructing its second missile-launch complex that is five times larger, and better shielded from potential attack, than its Musudan-ri facility, according to the Korea Herald. The new Dongchang-ri complex is strategically closer to China, has an underground missile-fueling center to escape U.S. satellite monitoring, and is just 43 miles from the Yongbyon nuclear complex where North Korea develops atomic weapons.
The regime is also making substantial progress in the production of enriched uranium, which is fuel for nuclear weapons. Last November, American nuclear experts viewed approximately 2,000 uranium-enrichment centrifuges at a previously secret North Korean facility. Those experts asserted that “it is highly likely” there are other unrevealed uranium-enrichment plants in North Korea , according to the Associated Press. The regime is believed to hold enough plutonium, also a type of nuclear fuel, for six atomic weapons, and now uranium enrichment provides a second route for preparing weapons material.
These developments and two underground nuclear tests set the stage for President Obama’s effort to restart six-party talks involving the two Koreas, Japan, China, Russia and the U.S. intended to wean the regime of its nuclear programs. Those talks broke down in 2008 and stalled especially because of two deadly attacks on a South Korean warship and border island last year.
Today, the Hermit Kingdom appears ready to rejoin the talks because it needs Western food aid and more time to put in place a weapons program that will guarantee regime survival. Besides, this is a perilous time for the regime because its leader, Kim Jong-il, thought to be dying, is preparing the country for the third-generation power transition to his youngest son, Kim Jong-un.
The U.S. will likely provide aid to incentivize new talks. This week U.S envoy Robert King is in North Korea to assess the food situation. Pyongyang appealed to the U.S. for 430,000 tons of food to feed 6 million people allegedly stricken by floods and severe winter weather.
South Korea is skeptical about Pyongyang’s food request, however. Seoul officials say the North exaggerated its shortages to hoard food in preparation for the 100th anniversary of the birth of its late leader, Kim Il-sung, according to Yonhap, South Korea’s largest news agency.
Eventually, with or without food aid, Pyongyang is expected to rejoin the six-party talks because it knows that forum provides an opportunity to extract aid for more false promises to denuclearize. But just as important, North Korea wants to buy time to field survivable mobile atomic-tipped ballistic missile systems that will be hidden deep in caverns, beyond the effective reach of U.S. earth-penetrating munitions.
The Communist regime knows its continued existence depends on those survivable mobile nuclear weapons. That view was confirmed by A.Q. Khan, the father of Pakistan’s nuclear weapon, and a WMD proliferator, who wrote last week in Newsweek, “Don’t overlook the fact that no nuclear-capable country has been subjected to aggression or occupied, or had its borders redrawn. Had Iraq and Libya been nuclear powers, they wouldn’t have been destroyed in the way we have seen recently.” That line of thought most certainly influences Kim Jong-il’s WMD decisions.
China plays an interesting role regarding North Korea. It protects the regime by winking at violations of UN sanctions that it promises to back. But then it walks a self-serving line between helping Pyongyang and protecting its interests by blocking the release of the new UN report.
Beijing fears the UN report, which shows fresh North Korean arms proliferation violations, will lead to more at-sea interdictions by foreign vessels along its periphery. More foreign vessels such as U.S. warships in the East and South China Seas threaten Beijing’s sovereign claim to that region.
But China paradoxically benefits from Pyongyang’s ongoing proliferation activities, which explains why it helps the rogue. Allegedly China was the “neighboring third country” cited in the UN report that allowed “trans-shipment” of illicit weapons technology between Iran and North Korea. Beijing favors this activity because it creates a distraction in the Mideast that keeps the U.S. tied down and out of Asia .
What should be President Obama’s North Korea policy? Perhaps he should take the advice of his ambassador to South Korea as reported by Yonhap. Last week Ambassador Kathleen Stephens told the Kwanhun Club, a fraternity of senior Korean journalists, “Without denuclearization, North Korea is on a dead-end road.”
At this time all evidence points to Pyongyang speeding down that “dead-end road.” It does not appear the regime is willing to abandon its WMD programs, and in fact it is expanding its activities to include proliferating WMDs to virtually anyone with money.
Obama’s policy must be resolute—Pyongyang will stop proliferating and abandon WMD programs, and then we’ll talk. There will be incentives for compliance, but failing to change course invites what happened to Iraq and Libya. The U.S. will not tolerate Pyongyang’s developing mobile atomic-tipped ballistic missiles hidden in deep bunkers that would then put the rogue in a position to blackmail the world.
Author Archives: jimmy
05/25/11
Video: Survival Map of Israel
An animated video prepared by senior IDF generals for the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs (JCPA) graphically describes Israel’s territorial needs for self-survival.
In light of a widening range of threats to Israel’s security, the generals outlined the basic principles of a defense policy, rooted in a consensus spanning past and present Israeli governments and focusing on Israel’s maintaining defensible borders.
The crisis over the Hamas flotilla to Gaza illustrates how some of Israel’s critical alliances in the Middle East are changing, according to the JCPA, especially its relationship with Turkey, and the importance of designing a defense policy that takes into account the uncertainties that Israel faces with many of its neighbors.
05/24/11
The 44th anniversary of the reunification of Jerusalem
Jimmy and Brannon House discuss the 44th anniversary of the reunification of Jerusalem.
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Obama calls for Israel to return to 1967 borders
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The problems with the Glenn Beck Rally Part 2
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The problems with the Glenn Beck Rally Part 1
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05/23/11
* Does Obama Think Jerusalem is Outside Israel? The United States State Department is standing behind the wording of an official statement that implied that Jerusalem – including its western parts – is not a part of Israel.
* Syria adopts two-faced strategy with social media Instead of blocking the Internet, embattled regime fights cold war-style battles with activists.
* Maritime Lawfare Victory: Lloyd’s Won’t Insure Gaza Flotilla Leading insurance market Lloyd’s of London has stated it will not insure boats headed toward Gaza in another flotilla designed to assist the Hamas government there.
* Hamas: Russia pledges to back Palestinian bid for state recognition A top Hamas official said that Russia has pledged its support if the Palestinians seek recognition as a United Nations member-state.
* Hamas Sees Obama’s ’67 Borders and Raises Him: ’48 Borders US President Barack Obama “hallows” the June 4, 1967 borders in two speeches this past week, and Hamas is already asking for negotiations based on the May 13, 1948 borders.
* Canada Rejects Obama “1967” Intervention Canada refuses to join the US in calling for Israel to return to 1949 Armistice borders.
* Gunbattle in Yemen as transition deal collapses Yemeni loyalist forces fought a gunbattle on Monday with opponents of entrenched President Ali Abdullah Saleh one day after he backed out of an accord for him to step down.
* A “misrepresented” Obama tries to set the record straight But even the US president’s improved formulations will still leave many Israelis feeling uneasy.
* EU backs Obama’s call for ’67 borders Swedish minister slams Israeli claim borders are “indefensible”, says peace only possible defense
* European Union Puts Sanctions on Syrian Leader Five days after the United States imposed sanctions on Syria’s president, Bashar al-Assad, the European Union followed suit.
Religion – the overlooked motive behind Syria’s uprising
Throughout the Syrian uprising of the last two months, the dominant media narrative has followed the now-familiar arc of a freedom-seeking populace mustering the courage to finally confront an autocratic, anti-democratic regime responsible for decades of repression. Little mentioned is another element of the unrest, one readily apparent to most veteran Syria watchers: faith.
President Bashar Assad is an Alawite, a minority sect often described, in the convenient shorthand on which journalists rely, as an “offshoot of Shi’a Islam.” The Alawites’ creed, however, is so far removed from any mainstream Islamic orthodoxy that most Muslims worldwide – Sunni and Shi’ite alike – are apt to describe them either as heretics or as wholly outside the Islamic faith community, or ummah.
The term Alawite derives from Ali, the martyred son-in-law of Muhammad venerated by Shi’ite Muslims as the first Imam, or successor to the prophet. In much of the Islamic world, however, Alawites are known pejoratively as Nusairis, after Muhammad ibn Nusair, the ninth-century religious renegade who seems to have been their spiritual forebear.
For 1,000 years, the Alawites were the most despised and suppressed of Syria’s faith communities – an isolated, rural people practicing a secret, syncretic religion rumored to incorporate Christian, Shi’a and pre-Islamic rites. In 1963 Syria’s Alawite-led Ba’ath Party seized power, an event so religiously and politically implausible that half a century later, mainstream Arabs and Muslims still struggle to comprehend it.
“An Alawi ruling Syria is like an untouchable becoming maharajah in India or a Jew becoming tsar in Russia,” the historian Daniel Pipes wrote in his book Greater Syria, “an unprecedented development shocking to the majority population which had monopolized power for so many centuries.”
LIKE THE Druse, another heterodox sect with distant Islamic roots, the Alawites adhere to an esoteric creed known only to a small group of shaykhs, or religious authorities.
In the late 19th century, however, an Alawite convert to Christianity published a book revealing a deeply syncretic creed that in every era adopted elements of the region’s dominant faith – Byzantine Eastern Orthodoxy, Sunni and later Shi’a Islam, Crusader Catholicism – while maintaining its own suspicious insularity.
Ali is no doubt central to the community’s dogma, so much so that mainstream Shi’ites deride Alawites as ghulat – “those who exceed” all bounds in their deification of the imam. But the Alawites’ resemblance to the Shi’ites constitutes the least of their heresies to Syria’s majority Sunnis.
Far worse is their doctrinal affinity with Christianity, and with pre-Islamic pagan rites like the Persian New Year, Nowruz.
Alawites “believe in reincarnation, regard the Pillars of Islam as purely symbolic, do not fast during Ramadan or make pilgrimage to Mecca, have no mosques or indeed any public worship, celebrate Christmas, Easter and Epiphany, and traditionally wear crosses like Christians,” according to University of Haifa linguist John Myhill.
The idea of God’s reincarnation in human form is central to Alawite belief, Myhill said, explaining that Alawites believe in “seven cycles,” or reincarnations of God in both revealed and hidden forms.
For example, Adam (God’s revealed form) returned to Earth in the hidden guise of Abel, Moses returned as Joshua Ben-Nun, Jesus as Peter and Muhammad as Ali. Like Christians, Alawites also worship a “holy trinity” – in their case, Ali, Muhammad and Salman the Persian, a companion of Muhammad who helped lay siege to Medina during the Islamic Conquest.
IN THE Ottoman era, Alawites were persecuted as infidels, forced to pay heavy taxes and mostly worked as indentured servants or tenant farmers for Sunni landowners.
The advent of French rule after World War I ushered in a golden age for the oncedowntrodden sect, which was granted short-lived autonomy as the “Alawite State” on Syria’s coast in the 1920s and ’30s. Colonial authorities hoping to stem Sunni nationalism propped up the Alawites and other Syrian minorities, giving them preferential treatment in the army and laying the groundwork for today’s Alawite-dominated military.
Hafez Assad – a former air force pilot and the father and predecessor of the current president – came to power in 1971, eight years after the coup by his own Ba’ath Party. The movement was putatively socialist and Arab nationalist, but dominated by young Alawites eager to end Syria’s centuries-long domination by an urban, Sunni elite. One of Assad’s first acts was to replace the constitutional requirement that Syria’s president be Muslim, with a law stipulating that the president’s religion is Islam – essentially certifying his own Muslim faith.
In the four decades since, the new Alawite elite have considerably weakened the Sunnis’ once-inviolable commercial dominance, and turned Syria’s military and intelligence services into its own private domain. The one significant challenge to Assad the father’s rule – a 1982 Muslim Brotherhood revolt in the central city of Hama – was brutally quashed, with security forces killing an estimated 20,000-30,000 people.
THE FACILE description of the Alawite faith as a branch of Shi’a Islam is encouraged by the Assad regime’s close ties with the Shi’a theocracy in Iran, and with Tehran’s Shi’ite proxy in Lebanon, Hezbollah.
In Shi’ism, Resistance and Revolution, Middle East scholar Martin Kramer wrote that the Syria-Iran partnership is purely a marriage of convenience.
“Common hatreds and ambitions inspired this expedient alliance between two incongruous political orders. The Iraqi regime was hateful to both Iran and Syria.
In Lebanon, Iran realized that it could not extend support to its clients there without Syrian cooperation,” Kramer wrote. “A sense of shared fate, not shared faith, bound these two regimes together.”
Indeed, the Islamic Republic has never recognized the Alawites as Muslims, much less of the Shi’ite variety. Instead, it was Musa al-Sadr, a Lebanese Shi’ite leader eager to expand his circle of influence, who in 1994 issued a fatwa certifying the Alawites as a branch of “Twelver” Shi’ism, the dominant Shi’ite branch and the one widely practiced in Iran. (“Twelver” refers to the 12th, or “hidden” imam, who disappeared 1,100 years ago and whose return is believed to augur the messianic age.) “When these Twelver clerics – [ayatollah Ruhollah] Khomeini’s closest students and disciples – visited Damascus, they spoke only the language of politics,” Kramer wrote. “They did not utter any opinion on the beliefs, doctrines, or rituals of the Alawis, about which they knew no more than any other outsider. Instead, they spoke of political solidarity, appealing to all Muslims to set aside their religious differences, to unite to meet the threats of imperialism, colonialism, and Zionism.”
ACCORDING TO Myhill, Syrian officials’ decades-long anti-Israel rhetoric is mere bluster to compensate for their perceived heretical creed: “In order to legitimize their rule among the Sunni majority, they must publicly project an image of championing Arabism by unrelentingly rejecting Israel and flirting with Israel’s avowed enemies.”
In practice, he noted, the Assads have little interest in a renewed confrontation with Israel. Other than the 1973 Yom Kippur War (a bid, he said to “keep up appearances” among Arab neighbors) and this week’s breach of the Golan border fence (an apparent attempt to distract the world’s attention from the bloody Syrian uprising), the Assads have generally kept their side of the border quiet.
“The Alawites’ religious beliefs suggest that they are pro-Jewish and anti-Sunni,” Myhill wrote this month for the Begin- Sadat Center. “From Israel’s perspective, it is far better for the Alawites to maintain power in Syria than for a Sunni regime to take control there… If a Sunni regime were to rule Syria, any wide-scale Israeli-Palestinian clash, such as Operation Cast Lead, would likely trigger an emotional response, pulling Syria into an international war with Israel, regardless of the consequences.”
Myhill wrote that Syria would not accept an official peace treaty with Israel under any circumstances, because such an agreement would spell the end of the regime’s legitimacy in the eyes of its own Sunnis, and those of the Arab and Islamic worlds.
“While an open alliance between Israel and the Alawite regime is impossible, it is possible for the leaders of the two countries to develop tacit understandings, whereby they would essentially coordinate actions to support their countries’ common goal of combating Sunni hegemony and radicalism,” he wrote.
If Myhill is right – and should Assad survive the current unrest – then Syria, long a byword for anti-Israel bluster, could become one of the Jewish state’s most reliable partners, and all because of its leaders’ esoteric, eccentric and insular creed.
What rankled Netanyahu in the Obama speech
In 2004, US President George Bush, in exchange for then Prime Minister Ariel Sharon’s plan to withdraw from the Gaza Strip, wrote a letter saying in any future agreement between Israel and the Palestinians it would be “unrealistic” to expect a full Israeli withdrawal to the 1949 Armistice lines (the 1967 lines), and that a just and fair solution to the Palestinian refugee issue would be their absorption in a future Palestinian state, rather than Israel.
What prompted Prime Minister Netanyahu to issue a surprisingly harsh response to President Barack Obama’s speech Thursday night was the sense that Obama had essentially thrown that letter out the window.
There were three elements in the Obama speech — a speech which was not without some “sweeteners” for Israel — that particularly irritated and surprised Netanyahu.
The first had to do with the President using, for the first time, the 1967 lines as a baseline for an agreement, saying in his speech that “We believe the borders of Israel and Palestine should be based on the 1967 lines with mutually agreed swaps, so that secure and recognized borders are established for both states.”
Using the 1967 lines as a baseline, and saying that land will have to be swapped from inside Israel, has never before been US policy.
In 2009, in a carefully worded statement, US Secretary of State Hilary Clinton said the following: “We believe that through good faith negotiations the parties can mutually agree on an outcome which ends the conflict and reconciles the Palestinian goal of an independent and viable state based on the 1967 lines, with agreed swaps, and the Israeli goal of a Jewish state with secure and recognized borders that reflect subsequent developments and meet Israeli security requirements.”
What Obama did in his speech was make the Palestinian goals of a “viable state based on the 1967 lines, with agreed swaps,” the American goal as well.
Although the 1967 lines may have been the implied baseline in the Bush letter, there was no hint there of a need for Israel to compensate the Palestinians fully for all territory taken in the Six Day War. In fact, Bush wrote that Israel must have “secure and recognized borders” emerging from negotiations based on UN Security Council Resolutions 242 and 338. UNSC Resolution 242 famously calls for an Israeli withdrawal from territories taken during the war, but not all the territories.
In Netanyahu’s mind Obama is charting new and dangerous territory, something that cannot be ignored or whitewashed. Or, as he said as his plane was just about to land in Washington Friday morning a few hours before his planned meeting with the President, “some things cannot be swept under the rug.”
The second issue that perturbed Netanyahu was the refugee issue.
While Bush in his letter said clearly that the Palestinian refugees should return to a Palestinian state, Obama made no mention of that position and instead actually said that the refugee issue would have to be negotiated down the line. In the Israeli view, Obama simply ignored the American policy articulated by Bush on the refugees.
With Palestinian “refugees” storming the border fence in the north demanding the “right of return,” the concern inside the PMO is that Obama’s failure to take a firm stand on the issue only reinforces the Palestinian belief that there is actually something to talk about on this issue. “This is a basic misunderstanding of the reality,” one PMO source said.
And the third issue that rankled Netanyahu had to do with Hamas. While Obama said the Hamas-Fatah reconciliation raised “profound and legitimate questions for Israel,” for Netanyahu this was simply not a strong enough statement. The PMO saw Obama as “wishy-washy” on Hamas, and at the very least wanted to hear Obama reiterate the Quartet’s three conditions for engagement with Hamas as part of a PA unity government: forswearing terrorism, recognizing Israel and accepting previous agreements.
That Obama made no mention of these conditions, and that he did not clearly and unequivocally reject Hamas’ participation in a PA government, sent — at least in Netanyahu’s mind — exactly the wrong message.
05/21/11
The problems with the Glenn Beck Jerusalem Rally Part 2
Jimmy is back to discuss new developments in the Beck Israel rally coming this August. Worldview Weekend has found a sound clip of Glenn Beck saying, “We are entering a – we are entering a dark, dark period of man. Um, I was, um, I was in the Vatican, and I was surprised that the individual I was speaking to knew who I was. And they said: ‘Of course we know who you are. What you’re doing is wildly important. We’re entering a period of great darkness, and if good people don’t stand up, we could enter a period unlike we have seen in a very long time.’ It was odd to stand in the Vatican and hear those words. Of all places that would understand the Dark Ages.” Does the Vatican see Beck as being “wildly important” because Beck, like the Vatican, is pushing ecumenicalism? What role will the Church of Rome play in the coming one-world religion spoken of in the Bible? Has the Church of Rome offered to oversee an agreement between Jews and Muslims as to the building of the Temple in Jerusalem? Jimmy DeYoung explains from the Bible why will the antichrist will not be a Muslim and Brannon explains why Muslims would never worship a man that sets himself up to be worshipped as god as the Bible says the antichrist will do. While Brannon and Jimmy are not calling anyone the antichrist, who on the world scene today is embracing the issues, philosophies and religious views that the antichrist will certainly embrace? How is this person being accepted by the false church today? Does the acceptance of this man today give us an understanding of how easily the antichrist will be accepted by the religions of the world?
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