Author Archives: jimmy
The Coming Single World Currency
Wow, what confusion in the markets, eh? One day the Dow Industrials are up 100 points or so, the next day it’s down sharply. One day gold is down $15, the next day, it’s up $12.
One day silver is collapsing again, another trading day, it’s roaring higher. One day the bond market is soaring higher signaling deflation, the next day it’s cratering, worried about inflation.
I’ve been around these markets a long time. Thirty-three years to be precise. I’ve traded tens of billions of dollars, mostly in the wild and wooly futures markets. And quite frankly, I have never seen such volatility, in any market. Period. It’s amazing.
But it’s also not surprising. The post-Bretton Woods fiat monetary system is breaking down. A new global financial architecture and monetary system is desperately needed. Everyone knows it.
That’s never been more true than it is today. Not just because of the massive debt crisis that is affecting the developed world, but because the emerging markets — which represent fully 84% of the world’s population — are growing like never before.
The problem is, the wild swings we’re seeing in the markets will not abate. They are bound to increase in the weeks, months and years ahead. Until the authorities around the world realize themselves that the world is changing.
Until then, the fact of the matter remains that your wealth and the wealth of your children and grandchildren are totally and unabashedly at risk.
Today, though, I want to take a step back from the day-to-day swings in the markets and do another Q&A column, culling some recent questions from readers.
This way, I can help you keep the bigger picture in focus. Plus, you’ll know what others are thinking and asking, and, of course, what my answers are (or at least my visions of the futures are). So let’s get started …
Q: How would a future single world currency impact the price of gold once it’s introduced?
A: The question should not be how it will affect its price, but its value. Let me clarify: Suppose gold is trading at $7,000 per ounce just before a new world currency is introduced. And let’s suppose that one new world currency unit equals $1,000 U.S. dollars. An ounce of gold would then be valued at a price of seven new world currency units.
In other words, the value and purchasing power of gold remain the same; the only thing that changes is the denomination of the currency.
You might think, “well, then nothing has really changed.” And in the strict sense of the matter, that would be true.
But, a single world currency would not be introduced in a vacuum. It would (most likely) be introduced based upon a basket of internationally traded commodities. So its purchasing power — and value — would be equivalent to whatever it is at that time.
Also, and no matter what, one must realize that when a new world currency is finally introduced, it will be in the context of a wildly inflated world; in other words, asset prices will have inflated because of the depreciation that’s being deliberately unleashed by central bankers to push up asset prices relative to private and public debt levels.
Then, the system gets reset, or rebooted, if you will, to reflect a new balance sheet, if you will.
In the end, a new monetary system and a single world currency for international trade will be a good thing. Unfortunately, getting there will be the hard part as there is simply no one in Washington or any other government in the world that will fess up to what they’re doing: Inflating asset prices.
So it remains up to you to see through it, and protect and grow your wealth.
Q: Larry, since gold has been going up since 2000/2001 above the rate of inflation, does that mean we have been in a deflationary period ever since? Does this make the deflation/inflation argument mute?
A: Excellent questions! In the sense that gold now buys you much more of many other assets, especially stocks and real estate, the answer would be YES, for those particular assets. Indeed, they have deflated relative to the price of gold.
Naturally, other asset prices, such as the price of oil or food in general, have inflated along with the price of gold.
Bottom line #1: All asset prices and value are relative, and …
Bottom line #2: Inflation and deflation are two sides of the same coin. One does not exist without the other.
However, that does not make the argument mute, because in order to protect and grow one’s wealth, one has to know which asset prices are inflating, versus which are deflating.
Q: Do you think Keynes idea of the “Bancor” as the world international trading currency [is viable]? Is it possible for governments to give up their monopoly on money entirely?
A: Actually, I think central banks, especially the U.S. central bank, should give up their monopoly on money and credit. The ability to create money and credit should be a function of the government and not a central bank.
Having said that, a government’s ability to create and control money and credit needs to be removed from those in power and pegged to an objective medium of exchange.
The best way to do that is to use a commodity-basket, which will rise and fall in value according to the natural expansion and contraction of global economic growth and other factors, such as global population growth and more.
The IMF, the World Bank and the United Nations all endorse similar proposals, but none of them have gone far enough yet in working out the details.
Q: Since the exchanges have the ability to raise margins, like they did recently with silver, can’t they squash market rallies whenever they want, no matter what the commodity, or stock market, for that matter?
A: Short term, yes. Long term, no. Long-term trends are far more powerful than any exchange, government, and central bank.
Q: Larry, gold seems to be in trouble here. Are you concerned?
A: Not in the least bit. Yes, gold could and probably will pullback. But keep the long term in view. Gold is real money whose value is going to continue to appreciate in the years ahead.
Q: It was recently revealed that George Soros dumped some $800 million of gold. Since he’s getting out, shouldn’t we be?
A: No. First, no one really knows for sure how much gold he has, therefore, we don’t know whether he sold all of it, most of it, or a modest amount.
Second, we don’t know what he’s doing with the gold he sold. In fact, most of the gold he sold was via shares in the SPDR Gold Trust ETF. He could have been selling that gold and switching to actual physical gold that he’s storing in his own bank. Or, buying gold miners.
Keep in mind that you almost never get the full story from the press, no matter who issues the news, or who they are talking about. Nor do you ever get the full story from any investors, especially big ones like George Soros.
Bottom line: Never make any decisions based on news reports alone.
Q: The dollar is rallying again as the euro sovereign debt crisis erupts anew. Does this mean we are just seeing the dollar and the euro seesaw lower over time, due to both countries’ problems?
A: You are precisely correct. Both the euro and the dollar are losing purchasing power and in bear markets. Sometimes the U.S. dollar loses more, and sometimes the euro takes the lead.
Q: Larry, the Chinese yuan is not appreciating as quickly as you thought. What gives?
A: True, the yuan is not moving up as quickly as I expected. But I have no doubt it will. At the recent pow-wow in Washington, Beijing agreed to …
Increase its domestic savings interest rates to coax Chinese savers into saving even more.
Use “other methods” to help the U.S. boost its exports and put a lid on domestic Chinese inflation. That’s code speak for moving to more rapidly appreciate the yuan against the dollar.
Q: I watch your UWD videos, Larry, but the markets move so fast these days. Where’s support and resistance now in gold and silver?
A: Keep your eyes on the $1,477 level in gold as important support. If it gives way, expect to see a pullback to $1,425. On the resistance side, gold will find some selling between $1,525 and $1,545.
In silver, major support lies at $32. I expect that to soon give way, leading to a decline to $30, then $28 and quite possibly $23. Resistance lies at the $39 to $40 level.
Q: You have not written much about Asia lately. Why and what’s your view?
A: Great question! The simple reason is that with all the action in gold and silver over the past few weeks, and so many of my readers heavily invested in the precious metals, that’s where the urgency is.
But I am as bullish as ever on Asian economies, and emerging markets in general. The weakness in the dollar — and the euro — continues to drive investment capital into emerging markets. And consumers in emerging markets continue to drive economic growth throughout the developing world.
I have a good portion of my own net worth invested in emerging markets. And those investments are thriving.
Best wishes, as always,
Larry Edelson
06/09/11
06/08/11
Operation ‘Opera’ Took Out Saddam’s Reactor: 30 Year Anniversary
Thirty years ago Tuesday, on Sunday, June 7, 1981, eight IAF F-16s and and six F-15s took off from the IAF’s Etzion Base in northern Sinai. Their destination was the Iraqi nuclear plant at Al-Tuweitha, near Baghdad.
The youngest F-16 pilot was Captain Ilan Ramon, 25. He volunteered to fly last in the attack formation — the most dangerous position — because he had no wife or children.
The strike made history and denied Iraq’s Saddam Hussein his dream of nuclear weapons. He was eventually toppled and executed after the US led a coalition force into Iraq.
An animation created in 2003, in the months leading up to the coalition’s invasion, tells the story of that strike. By a stroke of chance, it was put online just days after the tragic death of Ilan Ramon, Israel’s first astronaut, on board the space shuttle Columbia.
The animation by Gil Ronen was viewed at the time by over 250,000 people, including numerous people within the US political leadership and defense establishment — the same ones who decided to finish the job Israel had started 22 years earlier and rid the world of the danger that Saddam Hussein would ever use weapons of mass destruction against other countries.
Israel bombed a site it claimed was a fledgling nuclear reactor in Syria several years ago. The International Atomic Energy Agency, IAEA, recently corroborated Israel’s claim, but condemned Israel for destroying the site instead of filing a complaint.
06/07/11
06/06/11
* IDF vows to use “all defensive means” to protect Israel’s borders IDF chief says army must “remain alert and prepared” in wake of violent Naksa Day clashes along Syria border.
* Iran can produce nuke within 2 months Airstrikes can no longer stop nuclear program, US can do nothing short of military occupation
* Yemen opposition backs power transfer to vice-president Yemen’s main opposition coalition says it will accept a transfer of power to the vice-president, after President Ali Abdullah Saleh left for Saudi Arabia.
* Nasrallah, Hamas praise Naksa border marches Hezbollah leader says protests show how US is trying to hijack “Arab Spring”; Hamas encourages more marches at Israeli border.
* 1967-2011: Video of Six-Day War, but Arabs Still Try for Victory Israel annihilated Arab enemies in the Six-Day War that began today (Sunday) 44 years ago, but the Arab world calls the loss a “setback” (Naksa, in Arabic) and tries to turn it into victory.
* IAEA nuclear watchdog meeting to focus on Syria The International Atomic Energy Agency board is meeting amid pressure from the US and other nations to rebuke Syria over alleged illicit nuclear activity.
* OPEC Overshadowed by Qaddafi in Most-Hostile Meeting Since 1990 Gulf War OPEC’s decision on production quotas this week may be complicated by hostilities in Libya as members meeting in Vienna find themselves supporting opposing camps of a military conflict for the first time in 21 years.
* Civil War Threatens Heavily-Armed Sinai Area South of Israel Civil war may break out among heavily-armed Bedouin tribes in the Sinai, which has become a lawless area since the Egyptian uprising this year.
* Anger over EU alert system as E. coli scare hits producers Spain is calling for the EU’s rapid alert system to be reformed after German officials mistakenly labeled organic cucumbers from Spain as the most likely source of a deadly E. coli virus, sending vegetable sales into a downward spin.
* Decline and fall of the American empire The US is a country with serious problems.
Obama’s Head In The Sand Iran Policy
President Barack Obama’s strategy of denying Iran access to atomic-weapons isn’t having its intended effect. Rather Tehran is dangerously close to possessing nuclear-tipped ballistic missiles which will fuel a regional arms race and could spark another war. It is time to issue Iran an ultimatum.
Last week President Obama vowed to maintain pressure on Iran. On May 22 he told the American Israel Public Affairs Committee “We’ve imposed the toughest sanctions ever on the Iranian regime” and then he promised “We remain committed to preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.”
But evidence is mounting that Obama’s talk and sanctions strategy isn’t stopping Tehran’s march to nuclear arms status. Consider what our intelligence community, the United Nations and others say about Iran’s escalating atomic missile program.
James Clapper, the U.S. Director of National Intelligence, testified “Iran is technically capable of producing enough highly enriched uranium for a weapon” … “has the scientific, technical, and industrial capacity to eventually produce nuclear weapons” and “it continues to expand the scale, reach and sophistication of its ballistic missile forces, many of which are inherently capable of carrying a nuclear payload.”
Clapper’s warning is validated by two new reports from the United Nation’s nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
The IAEA reports it has new information regarding Tehran’s work on a nuclear warhead for a missile. The nine page report dated May 24 states its own inquiries showed “the possible existence in Iran of past or current undisclosed nuclear related activities involving military related organizations, including activities related to the development of a nuclear payload for a missile.”The IAEA indicates since its last report this February it has “received further information” related to these undisclosed military related activities, which it is currently assessing. Those concerns prompted IAEA director Yukiya Amano to demand of Iran “prompt access to relevant locations, equipment, documentation, and persons.”
Director Amano is especially concerned about seven weapons-related activities. The list includes experiments involving the explosive compression of uranium deuteride to produce a short burst of neutrons (a possible atomic trigger like that used by the Chinese), uranium conversion to produce uranium metal and missile re-entry vehicle redesign activities.
Harold Agnew, a former director of the Los Alamos weapons laboratory, told the New York Times the compression of uranium deuteride suggested work on an atomic trigger. “I don’t know of any peaceful uses [for uranium deuteride],” Agnew said.Besides the weapons activities the UN report confirmed Iran continues uranium enrichment operations contrary to Security Council prohibitions. It continues to increase its stockpile of low-enriched uranium (3.5% uranium-235) to 9,130 pounds and so far 125 pounds of 20% enriched uranium. The regime’s 8,000 known uranium enriching centrifuges continue to produce more and richer outputs every day.
Highly enriched uranium, the fissile fuel used in nuclear weapons, usually contains at least 90% concentration of uranium-235. Currently Iran has enough low-enriched uranium to produce four atomic bombs if it is further enriched. By comparison America’s very first uranium bomb, Little Boy in 1945, used 141 pounds of 80% enriched uranium-235.
The second UN report was leaked two weeks ago. That report by a panel of experts monitoring arms proliferation points an accusing finger at Iran. It states “Iran’s circumvention of sanctions across all areas is willful and continuing.” UN sanctions ban trading items that contribute to uranium enrichment and conventional arms like missiles.
The panel discovered prohibited activities being carried out by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps using a network of foreign suppliers and front companies. For example, South Korea seized rolls of phosphor bronze mesh wire bound for Iran which, according to the UN panel, could be used for Tehran’s heavy water reactor – a source for weapons grade plutonium. Singapore intercepted 302 barrels of aluminum powder from China which the panel said could be used to produce 100 tons of rocket propellant.
But Iran’s worst proliferation partner is fellow rogue regime North Korea. “Prohibited ballistic missile-related items are suspected to have been transferred between the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea and the Islamic Republic of Iran on regular scheduled flights of Air Koryo and Iran Air,” the UN report said.
The Iran-North Korea collaboration was evident last October at a military parade staged in Pyongyang at which North Korea unveiled its new Nodong missile. The Nodong warhead has “a strong design similarity with the Iranian Shahab 3 triconic warhead,” according to Reuter’s news service. But Iranian officials reject the allegation it collaborates with North Korea.
Iran’s foreign ministry, according to Fars News Agency, disputes the UN report, arguing that Tehran does not need outside help. But that statement is contradicted by a report in the May 16 edition of the Japanese newspaper Mainichi Shimbun that contends North Korea recently sent more than 200 people to Iran to transfer military technology for developing Iran’s nuclear and missile programs.
Iran and North Korea are motivated to collaborate by the mutually held view that atomic-tipped ballistic missiles are their best deterrent from regime change led by the U.S. That line of thought is voiced by A.Q. Khan, the father of Pakistan’s atomic weapon, who wrote in Newsweek “Had Iraq and Libya been nuclear powers, they wouldn’t have been destroyed in the way we have seen recently.”
That view likely prompted both nations to launch aggressive programs to field survivable mobile atomic weapons and build hardened and deeply buried facilities to hide those systems. Elbridge Colby, a research analyst at the Center for Naval Analyses and an expert advisor to the Congressional Strategic Posture Commission, warns that states like Iran and North Korea are locating their “most valued assets underground in facilities effectively immune from missile, air, or naval attack.” Colby surmises these states armed with mobile atomic weapons could hold “the threat of nuclear attack over Washington to deter any attempt to disarm them or occupy their countries.”
Iran’s rapidly emerging threat is evidently credible which begs the question: Do we have the right strategy to deny the rogue atomic weapons?
Former British Prime Minister Tony Blair criticized President Obama for being too soft on Iran, urging him to deal with a “looming and coming challenge” from the Islamic Republic, according to Agence France-Presse. “At some point,” Blair said, “we have to get our head out of the sand and understand they [Iran] are going to carry on with this [nuclear weapons program].”
What then should be Obama’s strategy to wean Iran from its atomic ambitions? Clearly the status quo – talks, sanctions, incentives – is not working. That leaves two options.We can accept a nuclear-armed Iran and the risks that create for the region and America’s global interests. Otherwise, as Blair said, “they’ll carry on doing it [seeking atomic weapons] unless they are met by the requisite determination and if necessary, force.”
Obama’s strategy should include an ultimatum backed by visible attack preparations by a joint force that could conceivably topple the regime, achieve our political objectives and allow the IAEA unencumbered access to suspect nuclear facilities. Failing that, force will be ready and should be applied.
06/04/11
This Week in History: Titus breaks through the J’lem wall
In the year 66 AD, a great Jewish revolt began against the Romans in Israel. Instigated by Roman idolatry and forced taxation, the fighting began in Caesarea and spread northward into the Galilee. The revolt would last for seven years, only ending with the fall of Masada in 73. It was responsible for some of the greatest tragedies and destruction in the history of Judaism, most notably, the siege of Jerusalem and subsequent destruction of the Second Temple.
As Jewish rebels in the Galilee faced defeat in the early years of the revolt, its leaders, determined to hold off the Romans, fled to Jerusalem. It was there that many of the rebels, known as the Zealots, would make their last stand in an attempt to protect the Temple.
The seizure of power in Jerusalem by the Galilean rebel leaders was not the only change in leadership that took place prior to the Roman conquest of the Holy City. In 69, following an ongoing power struggle taking place at the time in Rome, Roman commander in Israel Vespasian hastily departed the Holy Land to claim the throne of his empire, leaving his son Titus responsible for capturing the Holy City.
While his father had patiently laid siege on the outskirts of the walled city for nearly two years, Titus was eager to prove himself and determined to take Jerusalem. Several attempts to negotiate with the Jewish rebel leaders – through the Jewish Roman slave and historian Josephus Flavius – were carried out in vain. The Zealot rebel leaders, determined to defend the Temple and the holy city, refused to make any concessions.
This hardline position, however, also played a significant role in the fall of Jerusalem and ultimate destruction of the Temple. The Zealot position of not negotiating with the Romans created a significant and bloody rift among Jerusalem’s Jews. Many of the city’s residents, particularly the wealthier classes, perhaps sensing impending destruction, wanted to negotiate some sort of surrender. The Galilean rebel leaders, however, would have none of it. A bloody civil war broke out inside the city’s walls at the same time as its outer walls were being pounded by Roman battering rams.
In a perhaps suicidal effort to motivate fellow Jews to fight against the lengthy siege instead of surrendering to it, the Zealots at one point began burning dry food stores, adding hunger to the already long list of problems faced by the ancient Jerusalemites. Some historians have suggested that more Jews died from the infighting than were killed by the Roman conquest itself.
The city of Jerusalem and its residents were not the only victims of the Roman siege and destruction. The environment and landscape were also ravaged. In order to build the stockade towers and battering rams necessary for breaching the city’s walls, Titus ordered that every tree within ten miles of Jerusalem be cut down. Josephus Flavius wrote after the battle:
And truly, the very view itself was a melancholy thing; for those places which were adorned with trees and pleasant gardens, were now become desolate country every way, and its trees were all cut down. Nor could any foreigner that had formerly seen Judaea and the most beautiful suburbs of the city, and now saw it as a desert, but lament and mourn sadly at so great a change.
But the wooden tools of war, despite their ultimate success, also had their weaknesses – wood burns. Historical and archaeological records suggest that the city’s defenders managed to hold off the Roman advances several times by tunneling under the city’s walls in order to set fire to the stockade towers, as well as more traditional attacks throwing firebombs over the walls. The tunneling, however, it has been suggested, backfired in the end. Although certainly aided by constant Roman pounding, the tunnels may have contributed to the walls’ collapse by undermining their otherwise solid foundation.
Titus and his Roman garrisons finally broke through Jerusalem’s walls in the early summer of 70 AD; the city was ravaged and destroyed. Although there is an historical debate as to whether Titus himself gave the order, the Roman soldiers quickly set fire to the Jewish Temple, an event that is commemorated on Tisha b’Av. Josephus Flavius described the destruction afterward, saying that Roman soldiers who had grown to hate the Jewish rebels set fire to an apartment adjacent to the Temple against Titus’ orders, the flames quickly spreading to the Temple. Other accounts suggest that Titus revised this version of history to improve his image.
While most of the Jews in the city were killed or enslaved when Jerusalem fell, some of the rebels managed to escape through tunnels and reestablished themselves at the mountaintop fortress of Masada, joining other Jews who had already moved there. In 73 AD, Masada fell, bringing the Jewish revolt to an end.