By: Middle East Times

For much of this year, a cynic might have suggested that one of the many reasons for the decline in violence in Iraq was the soaring price of oil. A country that pumps over 2 million barrels a day was generating $1 billion a week in oil wealth, and that kind of money is a very powerful incentive for powerful people to become part of the governing system, rather than try to destroy it or blow it up.

THAT’S PROGRESS – A few months ago Iraqi President Jalal Talabani (shown in photo) would have appealed to the Americans. Today, it is to Iraq’s Supreme Court. (ABACAPRESS.COM via Newscom)

So it is significant that with oil sinking down toward $40 a barrel, Iraq’s government, its parliament and now its presidency council have all approved the security pact with the United States, which includes the crucial Status of Force Agreement – or SOFA. Its best-known provisions are for the withdrawal of U.S. forces from cities next year and the complete withdrawal by the end of 2011.

The essence of the agreement is the restoration of full Iraqi sovereignty, along with the ratification by parliament and council, and its promised submission next year to a public referendum. It would be foolish to wax lyrical about this evidence of Iraqi democracy, as some in the George W. Bush administration are inclined to do, as if the wretched war and botched occupation could somehow be justified. There has been too much blood and grief and destruction for that.

And Iraq’s political system is very much a work in progress, with deep questions remaining over the relationship between the Kurdish north and the Baghdad government. There is a serious dispute between President Jalal Talabani, a Kurd, and Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki over the premier’s plans for tribal councils. Supposedly unarmed and answerable to his government, the councils are supposed to promote tribal reconciliation and deter insurgents.

The Kurds, with long memories of the way Saddam Hussein and previous Baghdad armed the Arab tribes to use them against the Kurds, fear they could become an Arab militia to prevent Kurdish resumption of their traditional lands around Mosul and Kirkuk.

Many Western and regional observers have seen Arab-Kurdish tensions over Kirkuk as a disaster, perhaps even a civil war, just waiting to happen. Perhaps, but note what Talabani had to say about the dispute this week: “Nouri al-Maliki is my friend and enjoys the confidence of Parliament, but he is not budging and remains adamant that creating these councils is legal. We will go to the federal court to see whether this is indeed the case.”

That does not sound like the prelude to crisis. It sounds more like the reaction of a sensible politician who understands that when politicians reach an impasse, they need an outside authority to make a compromise decision, and thus give them cover for having to swallow an unpopular deal. A few months ago, the appeal would have been to the Americans. Today, it is to Iraq’s Supreme Court. Now that’s progress.