The question is not whether Iran will get a nuclear weapon; it is about where and against whom it will use it.

Is the civilized community ready to reconcile with the Iranian nuclear bomb? There is only one answer to the question: It is, because it has no other options.
Years of peace initiatives, conferences, “good will gestures” and fruitless diplomatic shifts have taken their toll: Iran has passed (or is about to pass) the line after which the creation of the nuclear weapon becomes an irreversible reality. And no sanctions — neither strong, nor soft — will change the situation.

The problem has resolved itself and all that Obama, Sarkozy and other enlightened leaders can do is to accept the reality as it is. Considering their full failure, it will be the most reasonable decision. As the proverb says “If you can’t bite, don’t show your teeth”.
The main question today is: What will come next? What will happen, when Teheran gets the terrible weapon?

Historical experience shows that possession of nuclear weapons in itself is not a source of destabilization. On the contrary, it can serve as a means of deterrence. Consider:

The case of the Soviet Union, compelled to find an adequate answer to the post-war USA challenge;
China, which feared (despite the anti-American rhetoric) Soviet expansion;
Israel’s “Samson Option”; India and Pakistan, aspiring to neutralize each other;
and the Pyongyang regime, wishing to maintain power.
However in the case of Iran, the situation is different. The country has no enemies capable of threatening it. If there is something that can provoke the USA and Israel to attack Iran, it is its nuclear program in combination with aggressive rhetoric and expansion of Islamic revolution.

The purpose of Iran is not to deter its enemies but to change the balance of power in the Middle East and to bring the whole world under control. This is not a casual whim of Ayatollahs. Firstly, it is consonant with Persian expectations about the World Power that trace back to Cyrus the Great. Secondly, it is the Shi’ite aspirations connected with the appearance of Mehdi and expectations of the Apocalypse.

These were theological and civilization aspects of the problem. In real-politic, Iranian aspirations are expressed in plans of hegemony in the Persian Gulf and total Shi’ite expansion in the region. “Iranian push” must draw a line under almost one-and-a-half-thousand-year argument between Sunni and Shi’ite Islam.

The present geopolitical situation has, from the point of view of Iranians, their pluses and minuses. “Pluses” consist in the unique “window of possibilities”, which Iran had not had since the Sassanid’s (VI-VII centuries). “Minuses” are that the “window of possibilities” is faced with time constraints.

Let’s list these “pluses”:

Disappearance from the political scene of Saddam Hussein’s regime, the “sentry dog” for Iran and the inevitable vacuum of power in the region after American armies leave Iraq;
Growth of Shi’ite radicalism;
Steady high oil prices; Selling oil is the basis of Iranian economy;
Clear weakness of the West; Appeasement policy of the White House;
Pro-Iranian position of the Turkish Justice and Development Party;
Turkey had always been a counterbalance to the Persian influence;
Paralysis, corruption and unpopularity of the rulers of the Arab world.
“Minuses” refer to the time factor:

Extraordinary high oil prices can start declining and it will undermine the abilities of the regime;
Rather low birth rate, which is already not exceeding the European one;
Threat of internal instability;
Inevitable race of nuclear arms in the region;
Danger of Taliban and Al Qaida, the sworn enemies of the Islamic Republic, capturing power in Pakistan;
Possibility of a strong president, like Ronald Reagan, coming to power in the USA.
“The window of possibilities” is measured not by decades, but by years, and Iran has to act not quickly, but rapidly. In this situation the nuclear bomb cannot just be the weapon of deterrence or intimidation factor. Iran must paralyze the will of the enemies and not just frighten them. It can’t afford positional warfare as the USSR or China in the years of the “cold war”, it requires a blitzkrieg.

That is why a nuclear weapon must not only exist in Iran’s arsenal, it must be used. This requirement will become much more vital if the initial Shi’ite press in Iraq and Gulf States; or the aggression of “Hizbullah” and Hamas against Israel meet resistance and fail.

Where and against whom? Israel? It seems reasonable, but only at first sight.

The Iranian goal is to bring nearer Mehdi’s appearance and not to commit suicide for the sake of it. Iranian rockets are not of sufficient accuracy, and the regime has not much time for the development of nuclear missiles. Israel in its turn has advanced rockets with nuclear warheads and nuclear submarines. In case of destroying “Zionist formation”, the Islamic Republic itself would stand the risk of turning into a scorched desert.

Besides, even insignificant discrepancy in calculations can become fatal, because only 60km separate Greater Tel Aviv from the sacred Muslim sites in Jerusalem. I don’t think the destruction of the Al-Aqsa Mosque and the Dome of the Rock together with several hundred thousand Muslims is the best scenario for Ayatollahs. And at last, weak as it is, Obama’s administration won’t be able to stay neutral.

Iranian Ayatollahs never showed desire to burn down in the Apocalypse so anticipated by them. It means, the bomb should be used, but without threatening the regime.

Therefore the object of the nuke strike should satisfy the number of conditions: Deserted and remote from mass-media area with low population density; It should be the enemy, which has no capabilities required for an adequate response; The USA should remain out of the conflict area; The result must produce a “knockout” effect; The object of the nuke strike should be far away from the Iranian border.

These are rigid restrictions, but they leave certain options.

As I have already said, neither th USA nor Zionists are sworn enemies of Shi’ite Iran. They are no more than a “scarecrow”, like American imperialism of the 60s was for China. Radical Sunni Islam is the real enemy of Persian Shi’ites, and Iran is going to fight it to death.

Hitler abused imperialists and England left and right, while preparing for the fight against severe and ruthless, like Germany itself, Stalin’s Russia. In the 80s Saddam threatened to wipe out Israel, preparing military expansion to Iran. Rhetoric is not always consistent with true purposes of speakers.

Iran is terrified by the prospect of a nuclear bomb in the hands of adherents of a caliphate. And Teheran plans to paralyze their will.

Where? There are two perfect options: Al Qaida bases in Yemen and Taliban bases in Afghanistan after Americans leave them.

Both are deserted areas with small populations far from Iranian borders. Besides, this enemy is dangerous not only for Iran but for the West, too. Striking a fatal blow, Iranians won’t be afraid of a response strike. Finding a pretext will not be a problem… It will clear the way to Iranian triumph in the Middle East and test the patience of the West. However, the results can be predicted beforehand …