By: Andrew Willis – EUobserver

EUOBSERVER / BRUSSELS – China looks set to overtake Germany as the world’s largest exporter, with fresh customs data showing the Asian superpower sent goods valued at $1.2 trillion overseas in 2009.

However, analysts have been quick to point out that the figures only reveal half the story, with China still behind Germany and other net exporting countries in the value-added stakes.

The figures, released on Sunday (11 January) by China’s General Administration of Customs (GAC), mark a 16 percent fall on 2008, but are still tipped to exceed total German exports for last year.

Forecasts by the Federation of German Wholesale and Foreign Trade predict exports in Europe’s largest economy area are likely to fall by 18 percent this year to 816 billion euros ($1.18 trillion), with official figures expected in February.

Commenting on the likely switch in positions between Germany and China on the global export ladder, analyst Duncan Freeman of the Brussels Institute of Contemporary China Studies said the figures on crude volumes of trade were “something of note,” but added: “it doesn’t necessarily mean China is a dominant trading force.”

“The Chinese are right to say that many of their exports have relatively low added value,” he told EUobserver, adding that profits on products assembled in China frequently leave the country.

The Chinese 2009 annual total was given an important boost by strong exports in December worth $130.7 billion, up 17.7 percent from a year earlier and marking the first rise since November 2008.

Compared to the country’s exports, Chinese imports slid a more modest 11.2 percent to $1.006 trillion in 2009, something Chinese officials are likely to point to if foreign criticism over the country’s trade surplus resurfaces.