By: Cherrie Heywood – Middle East Times

JERUSALEM — In an upping of the tit for tat rhetoric between Tel Aviv and Tehran, several senior Iranian officials have recommended a pre-emptive strike on Israel in order to neutralize any Israeli attempt to bomb the Islamic republic’s alleged nuclear facilities.

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has reportedly issued a fatwa against using WMDs. But the fatwa’s contents are still unknown. Photo shows an Iranian 2,000-pound ‘smart’ bomb in front of pictures of Khamenei (L) and late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini at the production plant in Tehran. (Image by UPI via Newscom)

A senior Iranian official, Seyed Safavi, the head of the Research Institute of Strategic Studies in Tehran and an adviser to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, warned foreign diplomats in London recently that such an option was being lobbied by a small group of senior officials in the Iranian capital.

The diplomats had gathered to discuss the effects and consequences of a possible Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear reactor.

Numerous Israeli threats in recent years to carry out an offensive strike on Iran appear to have backfired badly as some Iranian hardliners believe that the only way to prevent such an Israeli attack is by hitting Israel first.

“The recent Israeli declarations and harsh rhetoric on a strike against Iran put ammunition in these individuals’ hands,” Safavi said.

Last week Member of Knesset Isaac Ben-Israel (Kadima), a former major general and someone very close to prime minister-designate Tzipi Livni, said Israel would not allow Iran to have nuclear weapons, and that there was still time to stop this development.

Israeli transportation minister and former defense minister, Shaul Mofaz, said that Israel would be forced to strike the Iranian nuclear reactor if Tehran continued to pursue its uranium enrichment program.

This followed a military exercise that Israel held in the skies over eastern Greece during a simulated attack on Iran in June. Over 100 F15 and F16 fighter jets from the Israeli Air Force (IAF) took part in aerial maneuvers which were carried out the same distance from Israel as Iran’s Natanz nuclear facility.

Current Israeli defense minister Ehud Barak has also stated that the military option remains on the table.

Incumbent Israeli premier, Ehud Olmert, held a meeting in March with the architect of Israel’s military strike on Iraq’s Osiraq nuclear facility in 1981. The meeting allegedly discussed an attack on Iran and was meant to be held in the utmost secrecy, but the Israeli media got wind of it.

However, Safavi – who is the brother of Yahya Rahim Safavi who used to head Iran’s Revolutionary Guards – said that although Iran would consider its own offensive against Israel such a plan had not yet been formulated officially into Iranian policy.

Safavi is believed to hold significant influence over security matters in the Iranian government.

He went on to explain that in the event of any U.S. attack on Iran, the Islamic Republic would focus on retaliating against Israel as Iran believed that such an attack would only be carried out in coordination with the Israelis.

Safavi reiterated that Iran only intended to use its nuclear program for peaceful purposes and that Khamenei had recently issued a fatwa against using weapons of mass destruction. But to date the contents of the ruling have not yet been publicized.

It is doubtful that Iran seriously intends to carry out a preemptive attack on Israel and Safavi’s statements could merely be another stage in an Iranian attempt to create a balance of fear and deterrence with the Jewish state.

Another significant question is whether Iran in fact has the ability to carry out such an attack. Iran’s air force is outdated with only a low number of its 300 warplanes capable of flying and it is unlikely that they would be able to penetrate Israeli defenses.

Furthermore, Iran’s missiles with the capability to hit Israel number no more than about 100 according to military experts. Ultimately Iran would have to rely on its Hezbollah and Hamas proxies in the region in the absence of nuclear capabilities.

And knowing the response any attack on Israel would elicit, a first move by Iran seems unlikely. Furthermore, there is a chance for improved dialogue between Washington and Tehran depending on the results of the forthcoming American elections.

Safavi stated that better communication with the United States was not a closed subject and that if Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama won this would encourage the moderates in the Iranian government to hold talks with America and to put the nuclear issue back on the agenda.

However, if Republican candidate John McCain won the presidency then Tehran’s hardliners who oppose any compromise would win the day.

Another positive sign for an improved relationship between Tehran and Washington would be the possibility of moderate and former Iranian President Mohammad Khatami winning next year’s elections. Khatami is considered the only real opposition to President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad winning again.

Ahmadinejad remains unpopular with many reformers in Iran and his mishandling of the economy has further underlined resentment against him. The current inflation rate in Iran is similar to what it was prior to the 1979 Islamic Revolution.