By: Middle East Times

The short, sharp lesson that Russian tanks handed to the Georgians this week will have serious consequences in the Middle East.

First, it means that the Russians are back as pivotal players in the region, with the political will and the military capability to play once more in the game of nations south of the Caucasus mountain chain. That in turn means that Azerbaijan and Armenia, as well as Georgia, are at immediate risk of becoming client states.

It also means that Turkey and Iran will have to factor the Kremlin back into all their diplomatic calculations as a regional great power with vital interests, just as they did before the collapse of the Soviet Union. And the former Soviet republics of Central Asia would be advised to take the fate of Georgia as a warning to those who think the Kremlin can be defied with impunity.

Second, it means that Russia is once more within striking distance of controlling all the export routes for the oil and gas of the Caspian basin. That was the monopoly (that at times felt more like a stranglehold) that the Georgia-Turkey pipeline, carrying Azerbaijani oil from Baku to Ceyhan in Turkey, was intended to break.

The ability of the Georgians to protect and secure that pipeline is now clearly in question, and proposals to extend and increase the capacity of the pipeline will now have to be reconsidered.

This in turn increases Russia’s importance, already huge, in the world’s energy markets, and thus in the eyes of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Russia has already floated the idea of an OPEC-type organization for natural gas exporters, and consumer countries will now be watching nervously for any sign of agreement between Russia and OPEC to limit supplies in order to keep prices high.

Third, the prestige and authority of the United States, already battered by misadventures in Iraq and its inability to dissuade Iran from its nuclear ambitions, have taken another blow in the region. The United States is unable to protect one of its close allies. Georgia is a country with some 2,000 troops deployed alongside the American forces in Iraq and U.S. military advisers have been training the Georgian army for four years now.

The question therefore asks itself; what exactly is the point of taking risks to be an ally of the Americans if it brings no protection?

Fourth, the return of Russia portends a shift in the balance of political forces in the Middle East that for the moment at least appears to weaken the American and pro-Western side of the balance and to strengthen the Iranian side.

Russia is a major arms supplier to Iran, is completing its new nuclear reactor and power station at Bushehr and is ensuring the U.N. sanctions are not too burdensome.

We have yet to see how this unfolds elsewhere in the Middle East, but few in the region will leave the Russians out of their calculations any more.